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⚽ Segunda División
Girona vs Leganes Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Girona vs Leganes in the Segunda División. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Girona face Leganes in the Segunda División, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Girona won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Girona win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.7-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Girona vs Leganes with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 16.2% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 14.0% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 8.1% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Girona vs Leganes is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Girona win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (61%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.75 (+7.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Girona and Leganes. Wins shown from Girona’s perspective: Girona 1 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-24 | Leganes | 1 – 1 | Girona | D |
| 2024-11-02 | Girona | 4 – 3 | Leganes | W |
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Girona at 64% to win and Leganes at 13%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Girona win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona Win | 64% | @ 1.62 | +3.5% |
| Draw | 23% | @ 3.75 | -14.2% |
| Leganes Win | 13% | @ 5.40 | -28.7% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Girona or Draw at 1.14 (85% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona or Draw | 85% | @ 1.14 | -2.6% |
| Leganes or Draw | 35% | @ 2.20 | -23.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 58% | @ 1.80 | +4.0% |
| Under 1.5 | 32% | @ 3.25 | +2.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 78% | @ 1.28 | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | @ 1.33 | -8.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | @ 2.00 | -15.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | @ 3.55 | -23.7% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 61% | @ 1.75 | +7.1% |
| BTTS Yes | 39% | @ 1.93 | -25.1% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 64% |
Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.
Expected goals: 2.02 for the home side, 0.83 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (16%), 2-0 (14%), 1-1 (10%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Girona vs Leganes?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.75 (+7.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Girona vs Leganes?
Our model makes a Girona win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.7-0.6 scoreline for Girona vs Leganes.
What is the predicted score for Girona vs Leganes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Girona and 0.64 for Leganes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Girona and Leganes play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.