Holstein Kiel

Fri 14 Aug2-2Finished

FC St. Pauli

⚽ 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Holstein Kiel face FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, FC St. Pauli won 2, 1 drawn. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Holstein Kiel +0.75 @ 1.29

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.58 – 0.85 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	7.5%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
1	13.9%	11.8%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.0%	9.3%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.8%	4.9%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.3%	1.9%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Holstein Kiel winDrawFC St. Pauli win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Holstein Kiel with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 82% model probability. Goals lean under 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points no (54%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

56%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli. Wins shown from Holstein Kiel’s perspective: 1 drawn · FC St. Pauli 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-14	Holstein Kiel	2 – 2	FC St. Pauli	D
2025-04-12	Holstein Kiel	1 – 2	FC St. Pauli	L
2024-11-29	FC St. Pauli	3 – 1	Holstein Kiel	L

📈 Recent form

Holstein Kiel

Holstein Kiel come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at TSV 1860 München. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at 1. FC Heidenheim.

DHolstein Kiel 1-1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
L1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
DHolstein Kiel 2-2 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
L1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
WTSV 1860 München 0-2 Holstein KielDFB Pokal

FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to VfL Wolfsburg. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

DEnergie Cottbus 1-1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
WFC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg2. Bundesliga
DArminia Bielefeld 2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
LFC St. Pauli 1-2 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
LRot-Weiß Essen 2-0 FC St. PauliDFB Pokal

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Holstein Kiel or Draw at 1.38 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Holstein Kiel or Draw	79%	66%	@ 1.38
FC St. Pauli or Draw	45%	61%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	77%	65%	@ 1.41
Over 1.5	70%	76%	@ 1.20
Under 2.5	56%	44%	@ 2.06
Over 2.5	44%	56%	@ 1.65
Under 1.5	30%	24%	@ 3.90
Over 3.5	23%	35%	@ 2.63

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	40%	@ 2.25
BTTS Yes	46%	60%	@ 1.53

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Holstein Kiel or FC St. Pauli is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Holstein Kiel +1.5	93%	–	1.12
Holstein Kiel +1.25	89%	83%	1.15
Holstein Kiel +1	86%	80%	1.19
Holstein Kiel +0.75	82%	73%	1.29
Holstein Kiel +0.5	79%	66%	1.42
FC St. Pauli +1.75	74%	84%	1.13
Holstein Kiel +0.25	73%	61%	1.54
FC St. Pauli +1.5	69%	78%	1.19
Holstein Kiel 0	67%	54%	1.75
FC St. Pauli +1.25	63%	77%	1.23
Holstein Kiel -0.25	61%	46%	2.06
FC St. Pauli +1	57%	74%	1.27
Holstein Kiel -0.5	55%	41%	2.32
FC St. Pauli +0.75	51%	66%	1.43
Holstein Kiel -0.75	49%	34%	2.83
FC St. Pauli +0.5	45%	59%	1.59
Holstein Kiel -1	43%	26%	3.71
FC St. Pauli +0.25	39%	54%	1.79
Holstein Kiel -1.25	37%	23%	4.17
FC St. Pauli 0	33%	46%	2.07
Holstein Kiel -1.5	31%	22%	4.30
FC St. Pauli -0.25	27%	39%	2.45
Holstein Kiel -1.75	26%	16%	5.90
FC St. Pauli -0.5	21%	34%	2.76
FC St. Pauli -0.75	18%	27%	3.52
FC St. Pauli -1	14%	20%	4.86
FC St. Pauli -1.25	11%	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Holstein Kiel 39%Draw 27%FC St. Pauli 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

Our model's main pick is Holstein Kiel with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.

What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Holstein Kiel and 0.85 for FC St. Pauli. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli play?

Kick-off is Friday 14 August 2026, 16:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.