⚽ Premier League
Leeds vs Newcastle Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Leeds vs Newcastle in the Premier League. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Leeds 4-1 Newcastle
Leeds vs Newcastle finished 4-1. Leeds won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.36, did not land.
Leeds face Newcastle in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Leeds have 1 win from their last 3, while Newcastle have 1 win from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Leeds won 1, Newcastle won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Leeds win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Leeds vs Newcastle with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Leeds vs Newcastle comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Leeds win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (58%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Leeds and Newcastle. Wins shown from Leeds’s perspective: Leeds 1 · 1 drawn · Newcastle 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Leeds | 4 – 1 | Newcastle | W |
| 2026-01-07 | Newcastle | 4 – 3 | Leeds | L |
| 2025-08-30 | Leeds | 0 – 0 | Newcastle | D |
📈 Recent form
Leeds come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Newcastle. Their only defeat in that run was 3-6 at Chelsea.
- DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- WLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
- LChelsea 6-3 LeedsLeague Cup
- DBrighton 1-1 LeedsPremier League
- DLeeds 1-1 BrentfordPremier League
Newcastle come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Tottenham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at Leeds.
- WNewcastle 2-1 Hull CityPremier League
- LLeeds 4-1 NewcastlePremier League
- WMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
- WTottenham 0-2 NewcastlePremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. JosephKnee Injury
- J. RodonMuscle Injury
- D. BurnAnkle Injury
- A. ElangaKnee Injury
- E. JaouenAnkle Injury
- JoelintonThigh Injury
- W. OsulaInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Leeds at 40% to win and Newcastle at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Leeds win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds Win | 40% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Newcastle Win | 31% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | @ 3.45 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Leeds or Draw at 1.38 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds or Draw | 68% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Newcastle or Draw | 58% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 52% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 48% | @ 1.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 42% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Leeds or Newcastle is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds +1.75 | 89% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Leeds +1.5 | 87% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Newcastle +1.75 | 84% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Leeds +1.25 | 82% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Newcastle +1.5 | 80% | 78% | 1.21 |
| Leeds +1 | 77% | 81% | 1.18 |
| Newcastle +1.25 | 75% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Leeds +0.75 | 72% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Newcastle +1 | 69% | 74% | 1.29 |
| Leeds +0.5 | 68% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Newcastle +0.75 | 64% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Leeds +0.25 | 61% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Newcastle +0.5 | 58% | 59% | 1.63 |
| Leeds 0 | 55% | 57% | 1.69 |
| Newcastle +0.25 | 52% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Leeds -0.25 | 48% | 48% | 2.02 |
| Newcastle 0 | 45% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Leeds -0.5 | 42% | 41% | 2.31 |
| Newcastle -0.25 | 39% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Leeds -0.75 | 36% | 35% | 2.73 |
| Newcastle -0.5 | 32% | 32% | 2.95 |
| Leeds -1 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.62 |
| Newcastle -0.75 | 28% | 26% | @ 3.69 |
| Leeds -1.25 | 25% | 24% | @ 4.03 |
| Newcastle -1 | 23% | 19% | @ 5.02 |
| Leeds -1.5 | 20% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Newcastle -1.25 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Leeds -1.75 | 17% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Newcastle -1.5 | 13% | 16% | 5.90 |
| Newcastle -1.75 | 11% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Newcastle?
Our model makes a Leeds win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.3 scoreline for Leeds vs Newcastle.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Newcastle?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.50 for Leeds and 1.34 for Newcastle. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Leeds and Newcastle play?
Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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