⚽ Championship
Lincoln vs Portsmouth Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lincoln vs Portsmouth in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Result: Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth
Lincoln vs Portsmouth finished 1-3. Portsmouth won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Lincoln face Portsmouth in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lincoln vs Portsmouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lincoln vs Portsmouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lincoln with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lincoln win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (58%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Lincoln come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Bristol City. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Swansea.
- LLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
- WBristol City 0-1 LincolnChampionship
- WPreston 0-1 LincolnChampionship
- LBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
- DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
Portsmouth come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Cardiff. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Derby.
- DPortsmouth 2-2 BlackburnChampionship
- DCharlton 0-0 PortsmouthChampionship
- WPortsmouth 2-0 CardiffChampionship
- LPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
- LBristol City 2-1 PortsmouthChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. BradleyKnock
- J. CollinsKnee Injury
- A. JacksonSurgery
- K. AndersonMuscle Injury
- H. BlairIllness
- J. BursikCalf Injury
- J. FarrellGroin Injury
- M. KosznovszkyKnee Injury
- C. OgilvieKnee Injury
- F. UmehHamstring Injury
- T. WaddinghamAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lincoln at 61% to win and Portsmouth at 11%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Win | 61% | 38% | @ 2.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
| Portsmouth Win | 11% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lincoln or Draw at 1.38 (85% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln or Draw | 85% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
| Portsmouth or Draw | 36% | 62% | @ 1.54 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 71% | @ 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 74% | @ 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 47% | @ 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 53% | @ 1.75 |
| BTTS No | 42% | 47% | @ 1.97 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lincoln or Portsmouth is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +1.75 | 96% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Lincoln +1.5 | 95% | – | @ 1.11 |
| Lincoln +1.25 | 93% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Lincoln +1 | 90% | 82% | @ 1.17 |
| Lincoln +0.75 | 88% | 75% | @ 1.27 |
| Lincoln +0.5 | 85% | 67% | @ 1.39 |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 80% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Lincoln 0 | 75% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
| Lincoln -0.25 | 69% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Portsmouth +1.75 | 65% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Lincoln -0.5 | 64% | 40% | @ 2.34 |
| Portsmouth +1.5 | 60% | 79% | 1.18 |
| Lincoln -0.75 | 58% | 34% | @ 2.79 |
| Portsmouth +1.25 | 54% | 77% | 1.24 |
| Lincoln -1 | 52% | 26% | @ 3.73 |
| Portsmouth +1 | 48% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Lincoln -1.25 | 46% | 23% | @ 4.21 |
| Portsmouth +0.75 | 42% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Lincoln -1.5 | 40% | 21% | @ 4.45 |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 36% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Lincoln -1.75 | 35% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 31% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth 0 | 25% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Portsmouth -0.25 | 20% | 37% | 2.60 |
| Portsmouth -0.5 | 15% | 33% | 2.88 |
| Portsmouth -0.75 | 12% | 25% | 3.75 |
| Portsmouth -1 | 10% | 18% | 5.25 |
| Portsmouth -1.25 | 7% | 17% | 5.75 |
| Portsmouth -1.75 | 4% | 14% | 6.80 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Our model's main pick is Lincoln with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline for Lincoln vs Portsmouth.
What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Lincoln and 1.14 for Portsmouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lincoln and Portsmouth play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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