vs
⚽ Championship
Lincoln vs Portsmouth Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lincoln vs Portsmouth in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Lincoln face Portsmouth in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 1.9-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lincoln vs Portsmouth with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lincoln vs Portsmouth is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lincoln with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a Lincoln win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Lincoln to win by 1+ goals at odds 2.79 (+62.1% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Lincoln come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Derby. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Middlesbrough.
- LMiddlesbrough 2-1 LincolnChampionship
- WDerby 1-2 LincolnLeague Cup
- LBarnsley 3-0 LincolnFriendlies Clubs
- WDoncaster 0-1 LincolnFriendlies Clubs
- LGrimsby 5-1 LincolnFriendlies Clubs
Portsmouth come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to QPR.
- LPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
- DSV Darmstadt 98 0-0 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
- DFarnborough 1-1 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
- LWycombe 3-1 PortsmouthFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- S. BradleyKnock
- A. JacksonSurgery
- K. AndersonInjury
- J. BursikInjury
- J. FarrellGroin Injury
- M. KosznovszkyKnee Injury
- C. OgilvieKnee Injury
- M. PackKnee Injury
- F. UmehHamstring Injury
- T. WaddinghamAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lincoln at 61% to win and Portsmouth at 11%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Win | 61% | @ 2.37 | +43.8% |
| Draw | 28% | @ 3.30 | -6.9% |
| Portsmouth Win | 11% | @ 2.93 | -67.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lincoln or Draw at 1.39 (85% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln or Draw | 85% | @ 1.39 | +18.1% |
| Portsmouth or Draw | 36% | @ 1.53 | -45.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 37% | @ 3.46 | +26.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | @ 1.99 | +17.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | @ 1.31 | +6.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | @ 1.30 | -17.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | @ 1.81 | -25.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | @ 3.40 | -35.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 58% | @ 1.74 | +0.5% |
| BTTS No | 42% | @ 2.00 | -15.7% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lincoln or Portsmouth is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln -1.75 | 35% | @ 6.25 | +116.5% |
| Lincoln -1 | 52% | @ 3.73 | +93.9% |
| Lincoln -1.25 | 46% | @ 4.21 | +92.4% |
| Lincoln -1.5 | 40% | @ 4.45 | +76.1% |
| Lincoln -0.75 | 58% | @ 2.79 | +62.1% |
| Lincoln -0.5 | 64% | @ 2.34 | +50.4% |
| Lincoln -0.25 | 69% | @ 2.04 | +42.0% |
| Lincoln 0 | 75% | @ 1.72 | +28.5% |
| Lincoln +0.25 | 80% | @ 1.51 | +20.4% |
| Lincoln +0.5 | 85% | @ 1.39 | +18.3% |
| Lincoln +0.75 | 88% | @ 1.27 | +11.6% |
| Lincoln +1.5 | 95% | @ 1.11 | +5.8% |
| Lincoln +1.75 | 96% | @ 1.10 | +5.8% |
| Lincoln +1.25 | 93% | @ 1.14 | +5.7% |
| Lincoln +1 | 90% | @ 1.17 | +5.0% |
| Portsmouth +1.75 | 65% | 1.12 | -26.8% |
| Portsmouth +1.5 | 60% | 1.18 | -29.0% |
| Portsmouth +1.25 | 54% | 1.24 | -33.0% |
| Portsmouth +1 | 48% | 1.28 | -38.5% |
| Portsmouth +0.75 | 42% | 1.45 | -39.4% |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 36% | 1.58 | -43.6% |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 31% | 1.83 | -43.9% |
| Portsmouth 0 | 25% | 2.12 | -46.1% |
| Portsmouth -0.25 | 20% | 2.60 | -47.5% |
| Portsmouth -1 | 10% | 5.25 | -48.1% |
| Portsmouth -0.75 | 12% | 3.75 | -53.3% |
| Portsmouth -0.5 | 15% | 2.88 | -56.6% |
| Portsmouth -1.25 | 7% | 5.75 | -58.1% |
| Portsmouth -1.75 | 4% | 6.80 | -74.2% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 55% |
| GradientBoosting | Home | 62% |
Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.
Expected goals: 2.00 for the home side, 0.84 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Our main pick is Lincoln with a +0.75 start at odds 1.27, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Lincoln to win by 1+ goals at 2.79 (+62.1% value).
Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
Our model makes a Lincoln win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.1 scoreline for Lincoln vs Portsmouth.
What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Portsmouth?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Lincoln and 1.14 for Portsmouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lincoln and Portsmouth play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.