Sat 5 Sep1-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Lincoln vs Southampton Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lincoln vs Southampton in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lincoln 1-1 Southampton

Lincoln vs Southampton finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Lincoln face Southampton in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Lincoln have 1 win from their last 3, while Southampton have 2 wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 48%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lincoln vs Southampton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lincoln +1.75 @ 1.27

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.2%	6.0%	2.6%	0.8%
1	9.5%	12.4%	8.1%	3.5%	1.1%
2	6.4%	8.4%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.8%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lincoln winDrawSouthampton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lincoln vs Southampton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lincoln with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 48%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Lincoln 27%Draw 26%Southampton 48%

27%26%48%

48%

Southampton Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Lincoln

Lincoln come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Bristol City. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Swansea.

LLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WBristol City 0-1 LincolnChampionship
WPreston 0-1 LincolnChampionship
LBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

Southampton

Southampton come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Bristol City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Wrexham.

LWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol CityChampionship
WSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 3 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lincoln

T. DarikwaKnee Injury
T. HamerHealth problems

Southampton

C. JanderLacking Match Fitness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lincoln at 27% to win and Southampton at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton Win	48%	52%	@ 1.80
Lincoln Win	27%	24%	@ 3.95
Draw	26%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.23 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton or Draw	73%	76%	@ 1.23
Lincoln or Draw	52%	48%	@ 1.96

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	78%	@ 1.20
Under 3.5	72%	66%	@ 1.40
Under 2.5	51%	45%	@ 2.08
Over 2.5	49%	55%	@ 1.68
Over 3.5	28%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 1.5	26%	22%	@ 4.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	57%	@ 1.63
BTTS No	46%	43%	@ 2.14

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lincoln or Southampton is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lincoln +2	83%	82%	1.16
Lincoln +1.75	79%	75%	@ 1.27
Southampton +0.75	77%	83%	1.15
Lincoln +1.5	76%	69%	@ 1.39
Southampton +0.5	73%	76%	1.25
Lincoln +1.25	70%	65%	@ 1.47
Southampton +0.25	67%	73%	1.29
Lincoln +1	64%	60%	@ 1.58
Southampton 0	60%	70%	1.37
Lincoln +0.75	58%	53%	@ 1.82
Southampton -0.25	54%	60%	1.59
Lincoln +0.5	52%	47%	@ 2.06
Southampton -0.5	48%	53%	1.80
Lincoln +0.25	46%	40%	@ 2.40
Southampton -0.75	42%	47%	2.06
Lincoln 0	40%	30%	@ 3.12
Southampton -1	36%	40%	2.42
Lincoln -0.25	33%	27%	@ 3.58
Southampton -1.25	30%	35%	2.75
Lincoln -0.5	27%	24%	@ 3.93
Southampton -1.5	24%	31%	3.08
Lincoln -0.75	23%	17%	@ 5.50
Southampton -1.75	21%	25%	3.82
Southampton -2	17%	18%	5.25

📈 How the market moved

Lincoln 23%Draw 24%Southampton 53%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lincoln vs Southampton?

Our model's main pick is Lincoln with a +1.75 start at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Lincoln vs Southampton?

Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 48%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Lincoln vs Southampton.

What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Southampton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Lincoln and 1.30 for Southampton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lincoln and Southampton play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.