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⚽ Premier League

Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Liverpool vs Brighton in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Liverpool face Brighton in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Liverpool have 3 wins from their last 5, while Brighton have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Liverpool won 3, Brighton won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.8-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Liverpool vs Brighton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Liverpool or Draw @ 1.36

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.78 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	5.8%	4.1%	2.0%	0.7%
1	7.2%	10.3%	7.3%	3.5%	1.3%
2	6.4%	9.1%	6.5%	3.1%	1.1%
3	3.8%	5.4%	3.9%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.7%	2.4%	1.7%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Liverpool winDrawBrighton win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Liverpool vs Brighton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Liverpool or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Liverpool win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Liverpool 52%Draw 22%Brighton 26%

52%22%26%

52%

Liverpool Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Liverpool and Brighton. Wins shown from Liverpool’s perspective: Liverpool 3 · Brighton 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-21	Brighton	2 – 1	Liverpool	L
2025-12-13	Liverpool	2 – 0	Brighton	W
2025-05-19	Brighton	3 – 2	Liverpool	L
2024-11-02	Liverpool	2 – 1	Brighton	W
2024-03-31	Liverpool	2 – 1	Brighton	W

📈 Recent form

Liverpool

Liverpool come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 6-3 at Lask Linz. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Manchester City.

WLiverpool 4-3 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
WBrentford 1-2 LiverpoolPremier League
WLask Linz 3-6 LiverpoolUEFA Champions League
LLiverpool 0-3 Manchester CityPremier League
WBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League

Brighton

Brighton come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Crystal Palace. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WBrighton 5-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
WBrighton 4-0 Kauno ŽalgirisUEFA Europa Conference
WSunderland 0-2 BrightonPremier League
WBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Liverpool at 52% to win and Brighton at 26%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Liverpool Win	52%	44%	@ 2.15
Brighton Win	26%	29%	@ 3.25
Draw	22%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Liverpool or Draw at 1.36 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Liverpool or Draw	76%	71%	@ 1.36
Brighton or Draw	49%	56%	@ 1.70

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	83%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	62%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	60%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	40%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	38%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	17%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	37%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Liverpool 45%Draw 25%Brighton 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Brighton?

Our model's pick is Liverpool or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Liverpool vs Brighton?

Our model makes a Liverpool win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.4 scoreline for Liverpool vs Brighton.

What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Brighton?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.78 for Liverpool and 1.43 for Brighton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Liverpool and Brighton play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.