⚽ Premier League

Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Manchester United vs Manchester City in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Manchester United face Manchester City in the Premier League, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Manchester United have 1 win from their last 3, while Manchester City have 3 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester United won 2, Manchester City won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.3-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Manchester United vs Manchester City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Manchester City or Draw @ 1.37

70%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.89 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.0%	7.6%	7.1%	4.5%	2.1%
1	5.3%	10.0%	9.5%	6.0%	2.8%
2	3.5%	6.7%	6.3%	4.0%	1.9%
3	1.6%	3.0%	2.8%	1.8%	0.8%
4	0.5%	1.0%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Manchester United winDrawManchester City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Manchester City or Draw at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 70%. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

Best value

Under 3.5 at odds 1.62, 60% model probability, -3.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Manchester United 31%Draw 24%Manchester City 44%

31%24%44%

44%

Manchester City Win

62%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

-3.1%

Best value: Under 3.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Manchester United and Manchester City. Wins shown from Manchester United’s perspective: Manchester United 2 · 1 drawn · Manchester City 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-17	Manchester United	2 – 0	Manchester City	W
2025-09-14	Manchester City	3 – 0	Manchester United	L
2025-04-06	Manchester United	0 – 0	Manchester City	D
2024-12-15	Manchester City	1 – 2	Manchester United	W
2024-03-03	Manchester City	3 – 1	Manchester United	L

📈 Recent form

Manchester United

Manchester United come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Ipswich. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Hull City.

DEverton 2-2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
WManchester United 5-2 IpswichPremier League
LHull City 2-0 Manchester UnitedPremier League
LManchester United 2-4 AC MilanFriendlies Clubs
DLeeds 1-1 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs

Manchester City

Manchester City come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Crystal Palace. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Arsenal.

WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
WManchester City 1-0 CoventryPremier League
WCrystal Palace 1-4 Manchester CityPremier League
WManchester City 2-1 BournemouthPremier League
LArsenal 3-0 Manchester CityCommunity Shield

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Manchester United

T. HeatonInjury
M. UgarteKnee Injury
M. de LigtBack Injury
C. BalebaAnkle Injury
A. DialloInjury

Manchester City

J. DokuCalf Injury
N. O'ReillyBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Manchester United at 31% to win and Manchester City at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	24%	@ 4.00	-2.1%
Manchester United Win	31%	@ 3.05	-5.3%
Manchester City Win	44%	@ 2.10	-6.6%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Manchester United or Draw at 1.72 (56% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Manchester United or Draw	56%	@ 1.72	-3.2%
Manchester City or Draw	70%	@ 1.37	-4.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	60%	@ 1.62	-3.1%
Under 2.5	38%	@ 2.55	-4.2%
Over 1.5	83%	@ 1.14	-5.2%
Over 2.5	62%	@ 1.50	-6.4%
Under 1.5	17%	@ 5.50	-7.2%
Over 3.5	40%	@ 2.25	-9.6%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	37%	@ 2.65	-1.7%
BTTS Yes	63%	@ 1.44	-9.4%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City?

Our main pick is Manchester City or Draw at odds 1.37, with 70% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Manchester City?

Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.9 scoreline for Manchester United vs Manchester City.

What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Manchester United and 1.89 for Manchester City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Manchester United and Manchester City play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.