⚽ Premier League
Manchester United vs Manchester City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Manchester United vs Manchester City in the Premier League. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Result: Manchester United 0-1 Manchester City
Manchester United vs Manchester City finished 0-1. Manchester City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Manchester City or Draw at 1.37, landed.
Manchester United face Manchester City in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: Manchester United have 1 win from their last 3, while Manchester City have 3 wins from their last 3. In their last 5 meetings, Manchester United won 2, Manchester City won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.3-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Manchester United vs Manchester City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| 2 | 3.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Manchester United with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Manchester City win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (63%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Manchester United and Manchester City. Wins shown from Manchester United’s perspective: Manchester United 2 · 1 drawn · Manchester City 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Manchester United | 0 – 1 | Manchester City | L |
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United | 2 – 0 | Manchester City | W |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City | 3 – 0 | Manchester United | L |
| 2025-04-06 | Manchester United | 0 – 0 | Manchester City | D |
| 2024-12-15 | Manchester City | 1 – 2 | Manchester United | W |
📈 Recent form
Manchester United come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Sabah FA. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Brighton.
- DFulham 1-1 Manchester UnitedPremier League
- LManchester United 2-3 BrightonLeague Cup
- LManchester United 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
- WManchester United 4-0 Sabah FAUEFA Champions League
- DEverton 2-2 Manchester UnitedPremier League
Manchester City come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 14 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Norwich. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
- WManchester City 5-0 NorwichLeague Cup
- WManchester United 0-1 Manchester CityPremier League
- WFC Porto 0-2 Manchester CityUEFA Champions League
- WManchester City 1-0 CoventryPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. BalebaAnkle Injury
- A. DialloInjury
- T. HeatonInjury
- L. ShawInjury
- M. UgarteKnee Injury
- M. de LigtBack Injury
- J. DokuCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Manchester United at 31% to win and Manchester City at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | 45% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Manchester United Win | 31% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Manchester City or Draw at 1.37 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City or Draw | 70% | 69% | @ 1.37 |
| Manchester United or Draw | 56% | 55% | @ 1.72 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 | 59% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 37% | 35% | @ 2.65 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Manchester United or Manchester City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City +1.5 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Manchester United +2 | 85% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Manchester City +1.25 | 83% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Manchester United +1.75 | 82% | 79% | 1.19 |
| Manchester City +1 | 79% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Manchester United +1.5 | 79% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Manchester City +0.75 | 74% | 75% | 1.26 |
| Manchester United +1.25 | 73% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Manchester City +0.5 | 70% | 70% | 1.37 |
| Manchester United +1 | 67% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Manchester City +0.25 | 63% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Manchester United +0.75 | 62% | 61% | 1.58 |
| Manchester City 0 | 57% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Manchester United +0.5 | 56% | 55% | 1.74 |
| Manchester City -0.25 | 50% | 52% | 1.88 |
| Manchester United +0.25 | 50% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Manchester City -0.5 | 44% | 45% | 2.12 |
| Manchester United 0 | 43% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Manchester City -0.75 | 38% | 39% | 2.50 |
| Manchester United -0.25 | 37% | 35% | @ 2.73 |
| Manchester City -1 | 33% | 31% | 3.06 |
| Manchester United -0.5 | 30% | 30% | 3.13 |
| Manchester City -1.25 | 27% | 28% | 3.41 |
| Manchester United -0.75 | 26% | 25% | 3.87 |
| Manchester City -1.5 | 21% | 26% | 3.55 |
| Manchester United -1 | 21% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Manchester City -1.75 | 18% | 21% | 4.50 |
| Manchester United -1.25 | 17% | 16% | 5.90 |
| Manchester City -2 | 15% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Manchester United -1.5 | 12% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Our model's main pick is Manchester United with a +1.5 start at odds 1.27, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
Our model makes a Manchester City win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.9 scoreline for Manchester United vs Manchester City.
What is the predicted score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Manchester United and 1.91 for Manchester City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Manchester United and Manchester City play?
Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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