Sat 5 Sep0-3Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Marítimo vs Benfica Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marítimo vs Benfica in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Marítimo 0-3 Benfica

Marítimo vs Benfica finished 0-3. Benfica won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Marítimo face Benfica in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 1.1-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marítimo vs Benfica with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Marítimo +2 @ 1.67

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.78 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	9.5%	8.5%	5.0%	2.2%
1	6.1%	10.9%	9.7%	5.8%	2.6%
2	3.5%	6.3%	5.6%	3.3%	1.5%
3	1.4%	2.4%	2.1%	1.3%	0.6%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Marítimo winDrawBenfica win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Marítimo vs Benfica comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Marítimo with a +2 start at odds 1.67, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Benfica win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Marítimo 15%Draw 20%Benfica 65%

15%20%65%

65%

Benfica Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Marítimo

Marítimo come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Moreirense.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
DMarítimo 2-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga

Benfica

Benfica come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Moreirense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at FC Porto.

LFC Porto 3-1 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WAC Milan 0-2 BenficaUEFA Europa League
WBenfica 3-1 Gil VicentePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
WMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Marítimo at 15% to win and Benfica at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica Win	65%	74%	@ 1.27
Draw	20%	17%	@ 5.50
Marítimo Win	15%	9%	@ 10.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Benfica or Draw at 1.04 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica or Draw	85%	91%	@ 1.04
Marítimo or Draw	35%	26%	@ 3.35

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	81%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	66%	60%	@ 1.52
Over 2.5	56%	61%	@ 1.52
Under 2.5	44%	39%	@ 2.33
Over 3.5	34%	40%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	21%	19%	@ 4.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	47%	@ 1.93
BTTS No	43%	53%	@ 1.74

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Marítimo or Benfica is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Benfica -0.25	70%	83%	1.15
Marítimo +2	70%	57%	@ 1.67
Marítimo +1.75	65%	50%	@ 1.92
Benfica -0.5	65%	75%	1.25
Marítimo +1.5	60%	45%	@ 2.12
Benfica -0.75	59%	74%	1.28
Marítimo +1.25	54%	38%	@ 2.48
Benfica -1	52%	70%	1.35
Marítimo +1	48%	30%	@ 3.19
Benfica -1.25	46%	62%	1.53
Marítimo +0.75	41%	26%	@ 3.65
Benfica -1.5	40%	55%	1.73
Marítimo +0.5	35%	25%	@ 3.85
Benfica -1.75	35%	50%	1.95
Benfica -2	30%	43%	2.22
Marítimo +0.25	30%	17%	@ 5.50

📈 How the market moved

Marítimo 8%Draw 16%Benfica 76%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marítimo vs Benfica?

Our model's main pick is Marítimo with a +2 start at odds 1.67, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 57%.

Who is the favourite for Marítimo vs Benfica?

Our model makes a Benfica win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.8 scoreline for Marítimo vs Benfica.

What is the predicted score for Marítimo vs Benfica?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Marítimo and 1.78 for Benfica. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Marítimo and Benfica play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.