Metz

Sat 5 Sep4-1Finished

Rodez

⚽ Ligue 2

Metz vs Rodez Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Metz vs Rodez in the Ligue 2. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Metz 4-1 Rodez

Metz vs Rodez finished 4-1. Metz won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Metz face Rodez in the Ligue 2, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 12:00 UTC. Recent form: Metz have 1 win from their last 4, while Rodez have 2 wins from their last 4. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Metz vs Rodez with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.34

72%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.27 – 1.41 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	9.7%	6.8%	3.2%	1.1%
1	8.7%	12.3%	8.7%	4.1%	1.4%
2	5.5%	7.8%	5.5%	2.6%	0.9%
3	2.3%	3.3%	2.3%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Metz winDrawRodez win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Metz vs Rodez comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 72% model probability. Goals lean over 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

Limited model coverage

Only one of our models had enough data for this fixture, so we do not show a match result probability or a value comparison against the bookmaker price here. The score heatmap and goals markets are unaffected.

📊 Key numbers

50%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Metz

Metz come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Rodez. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at RED Star FC 93.

DMetz 2-2 Saint EtienneLigue 2
LRED Star FC 93 1-0 MetzLigue 2
WMetz 4-1 RodezLigue 2
DAnnecy 1-1 MetzLigue 2
DMetz 1-1 LavalLigue 2

Rodez

Rodez come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Nantes. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to Nancy.

LRodez 3-4 NancyLigue 2
LRodez 0-1 GrenobleLigue 2
LMetz 4-1 RodezLigue 2
DRodez 2-2 PAULigue 2
WNantes 2-5 RodezLigue 2

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rodez or Draw at 1.70 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rodez or Draw	66%	54%	@ 1.70
Metz or Draw	60%	73%	@ 1.26

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	76%	@ 1.21
Under 3.5	72%	69%	@ 1.34
Over 2.5	50%	52%	@ 1.75
Under 2.5	50%	48%	@ 1.93
Over 3.5	28%	31%	@ 2.95
Under 1.5	25%	24%	@ 3.85

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	57%	@ 1.60
BTTS No	46%	43%	@ 2.10

📈 How the market moved

Metz 48%Draw 27%Rodez 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Metz vs Rodez?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 72% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

What is the predicted score for Metz vs Rodez?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for Metz and 1.41 for Rodez. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Metz and Rodez play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.