⚽ Serie B

Modena vs Avellino Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Modena vs Avellino in the Serie B. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Modena face Avellino in the Serie B, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Modena have 3 wins from their last 5, while Avellino have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Avellino win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.0-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Modena vs Avellino with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

84%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.04 – 1.05 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.4%	13.0%	6.8%	2.4%	0.6%
1	12.9%	13.5%	7.1%	2.5%	0.7%
2	6.7%	7.0%	3.7%	1.3%	0.3%
3	2.3%	2.4%	1.3%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-1

Modena winDrawAvellino win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Modena vs Avellino is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 84%. On the match result, the model rates an Avellino win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points no (59%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Avellino or Draw at odds 2.00 (+26.6% model value).

Best value

Avellino or Draw at odds 2.00, 63% model probability, +26.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Modena 35%Draw 30%Avellino 35%

35%30%35%

35%

Avellino Win

65%

Under 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS no

+26.6%

Best value: Avellino or Draw

📈 Recent form

Modena

Modena come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Cremonese. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Venezia.

WCremonese 0-3 ModenaSerie B
WBenevento 1-2 ModenaSerie B
LVenezia 3-2 ModenaCoppa Italia
WTrento 0-1 ModenaFriendlies Clubs
LCagliari 1-0 ModenaFriendlies Clubs

Avellino

Avellino come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Sambenedettese. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Arezzo.

WAvellino 3-0 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
LAvellino 1-2 ArezzoSerie B
LMonza 3-0 AvellinoCoppa Italia
LLazio 6-3 AvellinoFriendlies Clubs
WSambenedettese 0-5 AvellinoFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Modena at 35% to win and Avellino at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Avellino win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Avellino Win	35%	@ 4.75	+65.5%
Draw	30%	@ 3.30	+0.7%
Modena Win	35%	@ 1.75	-39.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Avellino or Draw at 2.00 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Avellino or Draw	63%	@ 2.00	+26.6%
Modena or Draw	63%	@ 1.18	-25.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	38%	@ 3.25	+24.2%
Under 2.5	65%	@ 1.70	+10.9%
Under 3.5	84%	@ 1.25	+5.1%
Over 1.5	62%	@ 1.33	-17.8%
Over 2.5	35%	@ 2.10	-27.0%
Over 3.5	16%	@ 3.75	-40.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	59%	@ 1.80	+5.5%
BTTS Yes	41%	@ 1.95	-19.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	44%
Dixon-Coles	Away	44%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.29 for the home side, 1.30 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Modena vs Avellino?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 84% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Avellino or Draw at 2.00 (+26.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Modena vs Avellino?

Our model makes an Avellino win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.1 scoreline for Modena vs Avellino.

What is the predicted score for Modena vs Avellino?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.04 for Modena and 1.05 for Avellino. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Modena and Avellino play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.