⚽ Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Maritimo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Moreirense vs Maritimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Moreirense face Maritimo in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Moreirense have 1 win from their last 4, while Maritimo have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Moreirense vs Maritimo with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.34

73%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.36 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	9.2%	5.7%	2.4%	0.7%
1	10.1%	12.5%	7.8%	3.2%	1.0%
2	6.9%	8.5%	5.3%	2.2%	0.7%
3	3.1%	3.9%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.1%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Moreirense winDrawMaritimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, the selection our model is most confident in at 73%. On the match result, the model rates a Moreirense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.34, 73% model probability, -1.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Moreirense 40%Draw 30%Maritimo 30%

40%30%30%

40%

Moreirense Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

-1.8%

Best value: Over 1.5

📈 Recent form

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Casa Pia. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.

LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LArouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
DMoreirense 2-2 SC BragaPrimeira Liga

Maritimo

Maritimo come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Famalicao. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Benfica.

LMaritimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 2-1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
DMaritimo 2-2 Academico ViseuPrimeira Liga
WFamalicao 1-2 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
WMaritimo 1-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Moreirense at 40% to win and Maritimo at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Moreirense Win	40%	@ 2.55	+2.7%
Draw	30%	@ 3.15	-4.8%
Maritimo Win	30%	@ 2.80	-17.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Moreirense or Draw at 1.38 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Moreirense or Draw	68%	@ 1.38	-5.5%
Maritimo or Draw	58%	@ 1.45	-16.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	26%	@ 3.90	+3.0%
Over 2.5	48%	@ 2.12	+2.1%
Over 1.5	73%	@ 1.34	-1.8%
Under 3.5	74%	@ 1.21	-10.9%
Under 2.5	52%	@ 1.63	-15.5%
Under 1.5	27%	@ 2.95	-21.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	53%	@ 1.83	-3.4%
BTTS No	47%	@ 1.84	-13.1%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Maritimo?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with 73% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Maritimo?

Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for Moreirense vs Maritimo.

What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Maritimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.36 for Moreirense and 1.24 for Maritimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Moreirense and Maritimo play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.