Mon 14 Sep3-1Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Moreirense vs Marítimo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Moreirense vs Marítimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Moreirense 3-1 Marítimo

Moreirense vs Marítimo finished 3-1. Moreirense won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.34, landed.

Moreirense face Marítimo in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC. Recent form: Moreirense have 1 win from their last 4, while Marítimo have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Moreirense vs Marítimo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.34

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	9.2%	5.9%	2.5%	0.8%
1	9.8%	12.5%	7.9%	3.4%	1.1%
2	6.6%	8.4%	5.4%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.0%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Moreirense winDrawMarítimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Marítimo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Moreirense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Moreirense 40%Draw 30%Marítimo 30%

40%30%30%

40%

Moreirense Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Moreirense

Moreirense come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Marítimo. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at home to Benfica.

DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 0-4 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LFC Porto 2-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
WCasa Pia 0-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga

Marítimo

Marítimo come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Moreirense.

DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga
LArouca 2-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
DMarítimo 2-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Moreirense at 40% to win and Marítimo at 30%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense Win	40%	37%	@ 2.55
Draw	30%	30%	@ 3.15
Marítimo Win	30%	33%	@ 2.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Moreirense or Draw at 1.38 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense or Draw	68%	67%	@ 1.38
Marítimo or Draw	58%	63%	@ 1.45

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	69%	@ 1.34
Under 3.5	73%	76%	@ 1.21
Under 2.5	51%	57%	@ 1.63
Over 2.5	49%	43%	@ 2.12
Over 3.5	27%	24%	@ 3.90
Under 1.5	26%	31%	@ 2.95

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	50%	@ 1.83
BTTS No	47%	50%	@ 1.84

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Moreirense or Marítimo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Moreirense +1.5	87%	85%	1.12
Marítimo +1.75	83%	86%	1.10
Moreirense +1.25	82%	84%	1.13
Marítimo +1.5	80%	83%	1.15
Moreirense +1	78%	83%	1.16
Marítimo +1.25	74%	80%	1.19
Moreirense +0.75	73%	74%	1.28
Marítimo +1	69%	78%	1.22
Moreirense +0.5	68%	67%	1.42
Marítimo +0.75	63%	69%	1.38
Moreirense +0.25	62%	62%	1.54
Marítimo +0.5	58%	62%	1.53
Moreirense 0	55%	54%	1.79
Marítimo +0.25	51%	55%	1.72
Moreirense -0.25	49%	45%	@ 2.14
Marítimo 0	45%	46%	2.10
Moreirense -0.5	42%	38%	@ 2.48
Marítimo -0.25	38%	38%	2.48
Moreirense -0.75	37%	31%	@ 3.08
Marítimo -0.5	32%	33%	2.90
Moreirense -1	31%	22%	@ 4.39
Marítimo -0.75	27%	26%	3.65
Moreirense -1.25	26%	20%	@ 4.77
Marítimo -1	22%	17%	@ 5.54
Moreirense -1.5	20%	17%	@ 5.50
Marítimo -1.25	18%	16%	@ 5.90
Moreirense -1.75	17%	14%	@ 6.80
Marítimo -1.5	13%	15%	6.40

📈 How the market moved

Moreirense 38%Draw 30%Marítimo 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Moreirense vs Marítimo?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs Marítimo?

Our model makes a Moreirense win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Moreirense vs Marítimo.

What is the predicted score for Moreirense vs Marítimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Moreirense and 1.27 for Marítimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Moreirense and Marítimo play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 19:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.