Wed 9 Sep0-1Finished

⚽ UEFA Champions League

Napoli vs Arsenal Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal

Napoli vs Arsenal finished 0-1. Arsenal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Napoli face Arsenal in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 61%, projecting a 0.7-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs Arsenal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.34

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.71 – 1.89 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	14.0%	13.3%	8.4%	3.9%
1	5.3%	10.0%	9.4%	5.9%	2.8%
2	1.9%	3.5%	3.3%	2.1%	1.0%
3	0.4%	0.8%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Napoli winDrawArsenal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Napoli vs Arsenal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arsenal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 61%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points no (61%).

📊 Key numbers

Napoli 14%Draw 25%Arsenal 61%

14%25%61%

61%

Arsenal Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

61%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Napoli

Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A

Arsenal

Arsenal come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Ipswich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.

LBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WIpswich 2-4 ArsenalLeague Cup
WSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
WNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
WArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Napoli

F. AnguissaMuscle Injury
A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
GiovaneGroin Injury
L. MarianucciKnee Injury
S. McTominayHeart Problems

Arsenal

C. MosqueraMuscle Injury
W. SalibaBack Injury
J. TimberAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Napoli at 14% to win and Arsenal at 61%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal Win	61%	57%	@ 1.68
Draw	25%	25%	@ 3.75
Napoli Win	14%	18%	@ 5.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arsenal or Draw at 1.15 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal or Draw	84%	82%	@ 1.15
Napoli or Draw	37%	43%	@ 2.17

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	70%	@ 1.34
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.27
Under 2.5	52%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	48%	50%	@ 1.88
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 61%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	61%	49%	@ 1.93
BTTS Yes	39%	51%	@ 1.83

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Napoli or Arsenal is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal +1.25	92%	86%	@ 1.10
Arsenal +1	90%	85%	@ 1.12
Arsenal +0.75	87%	86%	1.10
Arsenal +0.5	84%	–	1.18
Arsenal +0.25	79%	–	1.21
Arsenal 0	74%	–	1.28
Napoli +2	72%	80%	1.18
Arsenal -0.25	68%	65%	1.46
Napoli +1.75	67%	73%	1.30
Arsenal -0.5	63%	57%	@ 1.64
Napoli +1.5	62%	67%	1.41
Arsenal -0.75	57%	52%	@ 1.85
Napoli +1.25	56%	62%	1.52
Arsenal -1	51%	44%	@ 2.18
Napoli +1	49%	56%	1.68
Arsenal -1.25	44%	38%	@ 2.52
Napoli +0.75	43%	48%	2.02
Arsenal -1.5	38%	33%	@ 2.82
Napoli +0.5	37%	43%	2.21
Arsenal -1.75	33%	27%	@ 3.59
Napoli +0.25	32%	35%	2.77
Arsenal -2	28%	20%	@ 4.65
Napoli -0.75	13%	14%	7.00
Napoli -1	10%	15%	6.40
Napoli -1.25	8%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Napoli 18%Draw 25%Arsenal 57%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Napoli vs Arsenal?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.34, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Arsenal?

Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 61%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.9 scoreline for Napoli vs Arsenal.

What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Arsenal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.71 for Napoli and 1.89 for Arsenal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Napoli and Arsenal play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.