Sat 29 Aug4-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Norwich vs Burnley Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Norwich vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Norwich 4-1 Burnley

Norwich vs Burnley finished 4-1. Norwich won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Norwich face Burnley in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Norwich won 1, Burnley won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 0.8-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Norwich vs Burnley with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Burnley or Draw @ 1.58

85%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.80 – 1.77 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.7%	13.5%	12.0%	7.1%	3.1%
1	6.1%	10.8%	9.6%	5.7%	2.5%
2	2.4%	4.3%	3.8%	2.3%	1.0%
3	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	0.6%	0.3%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%

Projected score: 0-1

Norwich winDrawBurnley win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Norwich vs Burnley comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.58, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean under 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points no (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Norwich 15%Draw 21%Burnley 64%

15%21%64%

64%

Burnley Win

53%

Under 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Norwich and Burnley. Wins shown from Norwich’s perspective: Norwich 1 · Burnley 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Norwich	4 – 1	Burnley	W
2025-04-11	Burnley	2 – 1	Norwich	L
2024-12-15	Norwich	1 – 2	Burnley	L

📈 Recent form

Norwich

Norwich come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Sheffield Utd. Their most recent defeat was 3-4 at home to Bolton.

LNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
LManchester City 5-0 NorwichLeague Cup
LMiddlesbrough 4-3 NorwichChampionship
WNorwich 2-1 BirminghamChampionship
WSheffield Utd 1-3 NorwichChampionship

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.

DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Norwich

A. AhmedKnee Injury
P. MaghomaCalf Injury
L. MahovoAnkle Injury
J. MakamaFoot Injury
M. TopicKnee Injury

Burnley

E. AgyeiInjury
J. BanelInjury
A. BarnesInjury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury
B. HumphreysNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Norwich at 15% to win and Burnley at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley Win	64%	32%	@ 2.88
Draw	21%	27%	@ 3.50
Norwich Win	15%	41%	@ 2.28

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.58 (85% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burnley or Draw	85%	59%	@ 1.58
Norwich or Draw	36%	68%	@ 1.40

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-1.8 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	69%	@ 1.34
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.24
Under 2.5	53%	48%	@ 1.94
Over 2.5	47%	52%	@ 1.79
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.70
Over 3.5	26%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	55%	44%	@ 2.12
BTTS Yes	45%	56%	@ 1.65

📈 How the market moved

Norwich 42%Draw 26%Burnley 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model's main pick is Burnley or Draw at odds 1.58, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for Norwich vs Burnley?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 0.8-1.8 scoreline for Norwich vs Burnley.

What is the predicted score for Norwich vs Burnley?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.80 for Norwich and 1.77 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Norwich and Burnley play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.