vs
⚽ Championship
Portsmouth vs Derby Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portsmouth vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby
Portsmouth vs Derby finished 0-2. Derby won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 1.5 goals at 1.32, landed.
Portsmouth face Derby in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Portsmouth have 2 wins from their last 5, while Derby have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Derby won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portsmouth vs Derby with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.4% | 11.5% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, the selection our model is most confident in at 78%. On the match result, the model rates a Portsmouth win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.06 (+11.7% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between Portsmouth and Derby. Wins shown from Portsmouth’s perspective: 1 drawn · Derby 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Portsmouth | 0 – 2 | Derby | L |
| 2025-04-12 | Portsmouth | 2 – 2 | Derby | D |
| 2024-12-13 | Derby | 4 – 0 | Portsmouth | L |
📈 Recent form
Portsmouth come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Lincoln. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Derby.
- LPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
- LBristol City 2-1 PortsmouthChampionship
- WLincoln 1-3 PortsmouthChampionship
- LPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-1 PortsmouthLeague Cup
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Swansea.
- WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 0-3 SwanseaChampionship
- DDerby 2-2 CardiffChampionship
- LCharlton 2-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 LincolnLeague Cup
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. AndersonMuscle Injury
- J. BursikCalf Injury
- M. KosznovszkyKnee Injury
- J. MurphyInjury
- C. OgilvieKnee Injury
- F. UmehHamstring Injury
- T. WaddinghamAnkle Injury
- J. FarrellGroin Injury
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portsmouth at 49% to win and Derby at 24%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth Win | 49% | @ 2.14 | +4.2% |
| Draw | 27% | @ 3.30 | -10.1% |
| Derby Win | 24% | @ 3.30 | -20.5% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portsmouth or Draw at 1.30 (75% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth or Draw | 75% | @ 1.30 | -2.8% |
| Derby or Draw | 50% | @ 1.67 | -16.1% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 3.75 | +19.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | @ 2.06 | +11.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 78% | @ 1.32 | +2.6% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.24 | -15.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | @ 1.72 | -21.3% |
| Under 1.5 | 22% | @ 3.15 | -29.8% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | @ 1.80 | +2.1% |
| BTTS No | 43% | @ 1.91 | -17.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Portsmouth or Derby is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth -1 | 38% | @ 3.52 | +33.2% |
| Portsmouth -1.75 | 22% | @ 5.75 | +27.4% |
| Portsmouth -1.25 | 32% | @ 3.94 | +25.8% |
| Portsmouth -0.75 | 44% | @ 2.65 | +15.9% |
| Derby -1 | 17% | @ 6.40 | +10.8% |
| Portsmouth -0.25 | 56% | @ 1.92 | +7.3% |
| Portsmouth -0.5 | 50% | @ 2.15 | +7.0% |
| Portsmouth -1.5 | 26% | @ 4.10 | +6.4% |
| Portsmouth +1.5 | 91% | 1.10 | -0.4% |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 75% | 1.32 | -1.1% |
| Portsmouth 0 | 62% | 1.58 | -1.8% |
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 68% | 1.43 | -2.4% |
| Portsmouth +0.75 | 79% | 1.23 | -3.6% |
| Portsmouth +1.25 | 87% | 1.10 | -4.7% |
| Derby -1.25 | 13% | 7.00 | -6.4% |
| Portsmouth +1 | 83% | 1.12 | -7.4% |
| Derby -0.75 | 21% | 4.26 | -9.4% |
| Derby -0.25 | 32% | 2.87 | -9.8% |
| Derby 0 | 38% | 2.37 | -10.7% |
| Derby +1.5 | 74% | 1.20 | -11.1% |
| Derby +1.75 | 78% | 1.14 | -11.3% |
| Derby +0.25 | 44% | 1.95 | -14.2% |
| Derby +1.25 | 68% | 1.25 | -14.5% |
| Derby +0.75 | 56% | 1.50 | -16.0% |
| Derby +0.5 | 50% | 1.67 | -16.0% |
| Derby -0.5 | 25% | 3.24 | -18.2% |
| Derby +1 | 62% | 1.30 | -18.9% |
| Derby -1.5 | 9% | 7.00 | -34.1% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with 78% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.06 (+11.7% value).
Who is the favourite for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model makes a Portsmouth win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.62 for Portsmouth and 1.23 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portsmouth and Derby play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 01 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
Get free tips, every day
Daily AI-backed football tips in your inbox. Free, no spam, unsubscribe anytime.
18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
More predictions
Beşiktaşvs
Erzurumspor FKSüper LigFri 11 Sep17:00
Empolivs
ArezzoSerie BFri 11 Sep17:00
Nancyvs
ReimsLigue 2Reims Asian Handicap +0.5@ 1.36Fri 11 Sep18:00
KV Mechelenvs
AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueKV Mechelen Asian Handicap +1.5@ 1.34Fri 11 Sep18:45
Pisavs
Virtus EntellaSerie BFri 11 Sep19:00
Beneventovs
Hellas VeronaSerie BFri 11 Sep19:00Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.