⚽ UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
Result: PSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, over 2.5 goals at 1.52, did not land.
PSV Eindhoven face Shakhtar Donetsk in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, PSV Eindhoven won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 3.0-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.8% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 4.1% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (81%), both teams to score points yes (69%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk. Wins shown from PSV Eindhoven’s perspective: PSV Eindhoven 1 · 1 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 – 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | D |
| 2024-11-27 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 – 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | W |
📈 Recent form
PSV Eindhoven come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-1 at Utrecht. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Twente.
- LTwente 3-2 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WPSV Eindhoven 4-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WUtrecht 1-6 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to LNZ Cherkasy. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Polessya.
- WShakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- WShakhtar Donetsk 2-0 ChornomoretsPremier League
- DPSV Eindhoven 1-1 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WKarpaty 1-2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- LShakhtar Donetsk 0-2 PolessyaPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. Bro HansenInjury
- S. LammersLacking Match Fitness
- Mauro JuniorSuspended (red card)
- A. NagaloOff the roster
- S. OuaissaMuscle Injury
- A. PleaInjury
- J. SchoutenKnee Injury
- K. SildilliaInjury
- K. FesyunIllness
- V. KorniyenkoOff the roster
- MarlonMuscle Injury
- P. ObahOff the roster
- PedrinhoInjury
- T. PuzankovOff the roster
- M. ShvedOff the roster
- D. TvardovskyiOff the roster
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices PSV Eindhoven at 54% to win and Shakhtar Donetsk at 22%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven Win | 54% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | @ 4.90 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 22% | 14% | @ 6.75 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.10 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven or Draw | 78% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw | 46% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.0-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 81% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 93% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 | 81% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 37% | 57% | @ 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 36% | @ 2.65 |
| Under 1.5 | 7% | 16% | @ 5.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 57% | @ 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 31% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when PSV Eindhoven or Shakhtar Donetsk is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk +2 | 79% | 68% | @ 1.40 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.5 | 78% | 84% | 1.11 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.75 | 74% | 61% | @ 1.57 |
| PSV Eindhoven +0.25 | 72% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.5 | 70% | 55% | @ 1.71 |
| PSV Eindhoven 0 | 66% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 | 64% | 50% | @ 1.94 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.25 | 60% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1 | 58% | 43% | @ 2.23 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.5 | 54% | 66% | 1.42 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.75 | 52% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| PSV Eindhoven -0.75 | 48% | 62% | 1.53 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 | 46% | 34% | @ 2.80 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1 | 42% | 57% | 1.65 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.25 | 40% | 27% | @ 3.53 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.25 | 36% | 50% | 1.94 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0 | 34% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.5 | 30% | 45% | 2.10 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25 | 28% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| PSV Eindhoven -1.75 | 26% | 39% | 2.42 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 | 22% | 16% | @ 5.83 |
| PSV Eindhoven -2 | 21% | 32% | 3.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.52, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 64%.
Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model makes a PSV Eindhoven win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 3.0-1.4 scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk.
What is the predicted score for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.97 for PSV Eindhoven and 1.39 for Shakhtar Donetsk. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk play?
Kick-off is Thursday 10 September 2026, 16:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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