vs
⚽ Championship
QPR vs Bolton Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for QPR vs Bolton in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
QPR face Bolton in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.3-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for QPR vs Bolton with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 9.3% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 9.2% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for QPR vs Bolton is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Bolton with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 94%. On the match result, the model rates a Bolton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Bolton 0 at odds 2.86 (+104.0% model value).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
QPR come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at Bromley. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship
- WAFC Wimbledon 2-3 QPRFriendlies Clubs
- WBromley 0-7 QPRFriendlies Clubs
- WQPR 3-2 FiorentinaFriendlies Clubs
- WQPR 1-0 WycombeFriendlies Clubs
Bolton come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Preston. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sheffield Wednesday.
- WBolton 2-1 PrestonChampionship
- LSheffield Wednesday 1-0 BoltonLeague Cup
- WBolton 1-0 NAC BredaFriendlies Clubs
- DFleetwood Town 1-1 BoltonFriendlies Clubs
- DBolton 0-0 EvertonFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- K. DembeleKnee Injury
- B. KemperAnkle Injury
- R. KolliCoach's decision
- R. RodriguesKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices QPR at 12% to win and Bolton at 54%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Win | 54% | @ 3.79 | +106.7% |
| Draw | 34% | @ 3.62 | +21.0% |
| QPR Win | 12% | @ 1.90 | -77.1% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bolton or Draw at 1.85 (82% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton or Draw | 82% | @ 1.85 | +52.2% |
| QPR or Draw | 40% | @ 1.25 | -50.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 72% | @ 1.33 | -3.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | @ 1.91 | -4.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | @ 1.27 | -5.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | @ 1.89 | -5.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 25% | @ 3.67 | -6.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 28% | @ 3.28 | -8.4% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | @ 1.75 | -4.5% |
| BTTS No | 46% | @ 1.97 | -10.1% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when QPR or Bolton is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton -0.75 | 54% | @ 5.00 | +169.9% |
| Bolton -1.5 | 35% | @ 7.50 | +165.4% |
| Bolton -0.25 | 66% | @ 3.38 | +121.8% |
| Bolton 0 | 71% | @ 2.86 | +104.0% |
| Bolton +0.25 | 77% | @ 2.25 | +73.2% |
| Bolton +0.5 | 82% | @ 1.91 | +57.1% |
| Bolton +0.75 | 85% | @ 1.71 | +45.9% |
| Bolton +1 | 88% | @ 1.48 | +30.7% |
| Bolton +1.25 | 91% | @ 1.39 | +26.9% |
| Bolton +1.5 | 94% | @ 1.30 | +22.8% |
| Bolton +1.75 | 95% | @ 1.21 | +15.4% |
| Bolton +2 | 96% | @ 1.12 | +8.0% |
| QPR +1.5 | 65% | 1.03 | -33.5% |
| QPR +0.75 | 46% | 1.17 | -46.2% |
| QPR +0.5 | 40% | 1.26 | -49.8% |
| QPR +0.25 | 34% | 1.32 | -54.6% |
| QPR 0 | 29% | 1.42 | -59.3% |
| QPR -0.25 | 23% | 1.66 | -61.6% |
| QPR -0.5 | 18% | 1.88 | -66.8% |
| QPR -0.75 | 15% | 2.17 | -68.3% |
| QPR -1 | 12% | 2.68 | -68.7% |
| QPR -1.25 | 9% | 3.03 | -73.6% |
| QPR -2 | 4% | 6.40 | -77.2% |
| QPR -1.75 | 5% | 4.25 | -80.2% |
| QPR -1.5 | 6% | 3.38 | -80.6% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 37% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 60% |
Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.
Expected goals: 0.90 for the home side, 1.87 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for QPR vs Bolton?
Our main pick is Bolton with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with 94% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Bolton 0 at 2.86 (+104.0% value).
Who is the favourite for QPR vs Bolton?
Our model makes a Bolton win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.3 scoreline for QPR vs Bolton.
What is the predicted score for QPR vs Bolton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for QPR and 1.34 for Bolton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do QPR and Bolton play?
Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.