⚽ Championship

QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for QPR vs Middlesbrough in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

QPR face Middlesbrough in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: QPR have 2 wins from their last 3, while Middlesbrough have 2 wins from their last 3. In their last 4 meetings, QPR won 1, Middlesbrough won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.3-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for QPR vs Middlesbrough with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

QPR or Draw @ 1.73

62%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.67 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	8.3%	6.9%	3.9%	1.6%
1	6.6%	11.1%	9.2%	5.1%	2.1%
2	4.4%	7.4%	6.1%	3.4%	1.4%
3	2.0%	3.3%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.6%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

QPR winDrawMiddlesbrough win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for QPR vs Middlesbrough is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is QPR or Draw at odds 1.73, the selection our model is most confident in at 62%. On the match result, the model rates a Middlesbrough win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

Best value

QPR or Draw at odds 1.73, 62% model probability, +6.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

QPR 34%Draw 29%Middlesbrough 37%

34%29%37%

37%

Middlesbrough Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+6.9%

Best value: QPR or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between QPR and Middlesbrough. Wins shown from QPR’s perspective: QPR 1 · Middlesbrough 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-11	Middlesbrough	2 – 1	QPR	L
2024-11-05	QPR	1 – 4	Middlesbrough	L
2024-03-09	QPR	0 – 2	Middlesbrough	L
2023-09-02	Middlesbrough	0 – 2	QPR	W

📈 Recent form

QPR

QPR come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Portsmouth.

WQPR 2-1 CardiffChampionship
WBlackburn 1-2 QPRChampionship
DQPR 0-0 BoltonChampionship
WPortsmouth 1-3 QPRChampionship
WAFC Wimbledon 2-3 QPRFriendlies Clubs

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to West Brom. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Blackburn.

DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WMiddlesbrough 3-1 West BromChampionship
WDoncaster 1-3 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
LBlackburn 2-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
WMiddlesbrough 2-1 LincolnChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

QPR

K. DembeleKnee Injury
B. KemperAnkle Injury

Middlesbrough

A. BanguraCoach's decision
J. SarmientoNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices QPR at 34% to win and Middlesbrough at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
QPR Win	34%	@ 3.35	+13.6%
Draw	29%	@ 3.45	+1.4%
Middlesbrough Win	37%	@ 2.06	-24.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is QPR or Draw at 1.73 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
QPR or Draw	62%	@ 1.73	+6.9%
Middlesbrough or Draw	65%	@ 1.30	-16.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	35%	@ 3.00	+5.8%
Over 2.5	58%	@ 1.81	+4.4%
Over 1.5	80%	@ 1.24	-0.7%
Under 3.5	65%	@ 1.35	-12.6%
Under 2.5	42%	@ 1.94	-17.9%
Under 1.5	20%	@ 3.75	-25.3%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.66	+0.4%
BTTS No	40%	@ 2.10	-17.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	46%
Dixon-Coles	Away	43%
GradientBoosting	Home	37%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.33 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for QPR vs Middlesbrough?

Our main pick is QPR or Draw at odds 1.73, with 62% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for QPR vs Middlesbrough?

Our model makes a Middlesbrough win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.7 scoreline for QPR vs Middlesbrough.

What is the predicted score for QPR vs Middlesbrough?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for QPR and 1.67 for Middlesbrough. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do QPR and Middlesbrough play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.