Mon 14 Sep3-3Finished

⚽ Primeira Liga

Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Monday 14 September 2026, 17:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Rio Ave 3-3 Estrela da Amadora

Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora finished 3-3. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Rio Ave face Estrela da Amadora in the upcoming Primeira Liga tips, kicking off Monday 14 September 2026, 17:45 UTC. Recent form: Rio Ave have 1 win from their last 5, while Estrela da Amadora have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Rio Ave won 3, Estrela da Amadora won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rio Ave win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.30

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.37 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.7%	8.9%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
1	9.2%	12.2%	8.1%	3.6%	1.2%
2	6.3%	8.4%	5.6%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.8%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.3%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Rio Ave winDrawEstrela da Amadora win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rio Ave win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Rio Ave 41%Draw 26%Estrela da Amadora 32%

41%26%32%

41%

Rio Ave Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Rio Ave and Estrela da Amadora. Wins shown from Rio Ave’s perspective: Rio Ave 3 · 1 drawn · Estrela da Amadora 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-14	Rio Ave	3 – 3	Estrela da Amadora	D
2026-03-15	Rio Ave	2 – 1	Estrela da Amadora	W
2025-10-25	Estrela da Amadora	1 – 2	Rio Ave	W
2025-05-05	Rio Ave	2 – 0	Estrela da Amadora	W
2024-12-23	Estrela da Amadora	1 – 0	Rio Ave	L

📈 Recent form

Rio Ave

Rio Ave come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Estoril. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Alverca.

LAlverca 1-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
LSanta Clara 4-0 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
LRio Ave 0-4 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
WEstoril 0-2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga

Estrela da Amadora

Estrela da Amadora come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to SC Braga. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.

LEstrela da Amadora 0-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
DRio Ave 3-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga
WEstrela da Amadora 2-1 SC BragaPrimeira Liga
DEstrela da Amadora 2-2 FamalicãoPrimeira Liga
WNacional 2-3 Estrela da AmadoraPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Rio Ave at 41% to win and Estrela da Amadora at 32%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Rio Ave win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rio Ave Win	41%	36%	@ 2.63
Estrela da Amadora Win	32%	35%	@ 2.65
Draw	26%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rio Ave or Draw at 1.41 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rio Ave or Draw	68%	65%	@ 1.41
Estrela da Amadora or Draw	58%	64%	@ 1.43

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	75%	71%	@ 1.30
Under 3.5	71%	75%	@ 1.23
Over 2.5	51%	46%	@ 2.02
Under 2.5	49%	54%	@ 1.70
Over 3.5	29%	25%	@ 3.65
Under 1.5	25%	29%	@ 3.15

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.77
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Rio Ave or Estrela da Amadora is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rio Ave +1.75	89%	86%	1.10
Rio Ave +1.5	87%	83%	1.14
Rio Ave +1.25	82%	82%	1.16
Estrela da Amadora +1.5	80%	83%	1.14
Rio Ave +1	77%	80%	1.19
Estrela da Amadora +1.25	75%	82%	1.16
Rio Ave +0.75	72%	72%	1.33
Estrela da Amadora +1	70%	80%	1.20
Rio Ave +0.5	68%	65%	1.47
Estrela da Amadora +0.75	64%	71%	1.33
Rio Ave +0.25	61%	59%	1.62
Estrela da Amadora +0.5	58%	64%	1.49
Rio Ave 0	55%	50%	@ 1.93
Estrela da Amadora +0.25	52%	58%	1.64
Rio Ave -0.25	48%	42%	@ 2.29
Estrela da Amadora 0	45%	50%	1.94
Rio Ave -0.5	42%	36%	@ 2.65
Estrela da Amadora -0.25	39%	41%	2.33
Rio Ave -0.75	36%	29%	@ 3.33
Estrela da Amadora -0.5	32%	35%	2.71
Rio Ave -1	30%	20%	@ 4.67
Estrela da Amadora -0.75	28%	28%	3.35
Rio Ave -1.25	25%	18%	@ 5.25
Estrela da Amadora -1	23%	20%	@ 4.78
Rio Ave -1.5	20%	17%	@ 5.75
Estrela da Amadora -1.25	18%	18%	5.25
Estrela da Amadora -1.5	13%	17%	5.75
Estrela da Amadora -1.75	11%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Rio Ave 36%Draw 29%Estrela da Amadora 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora?

Our model makes a Rio Ave win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora.

What is the predicted score for Rio Ave vs Estrela da Amadora?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.37 for Rio Ave and 1.33 for Estrela da Amadora. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Rio Ave and Estrela da Amadora play?

Kick-off is Monday 14 September 2026, 17:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.