⚽ Ligue 2

Saint Etienne vs Montpellier Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier in the Ligue 2. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Saint Etienne face Montpellier in the Ligue 2, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Saint Etienne have 3 wins from their last 3, while Montpellier have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Saint Etienne won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Saint Etienne win the most likely result at 35%, projecting a 1.0-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.42

88%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.97 – 0.90 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.4%	13.9%	6.2%	1.9%	0.4%
1	14.9%	13.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.4%
2	7.3%	6.5%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
3	2.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-0

Saint Etienne winDrawMontpellier win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, the selection our model is most confident in at 88%. On the match result, the model rates a Saint Etienne win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 35%. Goals lean under 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points no (62%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.12 (+50.9% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.12, 71% model probability, +50.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Saint Etienne 35%Draw 34%Montpellier 31%

35%34%31%

35%

Saint Etienne Win

71%

Under 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS no

+50.9%

Best value: Under 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Saint Etienne and Montpellier. Wins shown from Saint Etienne’s perspective: Saint Etienne 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-16	Montpellier	0 – 2	Saint Etienne	W
2024-11-23	Saint Etienne	1 – 0	Montpellier	W

📈 Recent form

Saint Etienne

Saint Etienne come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Grenoble. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WDijon 2-3 Saint EtienneLigue 2
WSaint Etienne 4-0 GrenobleLigue 2
WSaint Etienne 3-1 Clermont FootLigue 2
WSochaux 0-3 Saint EtienneLigue 2
WSaint Etienne 4-3 VeneziaFriendlies Clubs

Montpellier

Montpellier come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Rodez.

DMontpellier 0-0 BoulogneLigue 2
WDunkerque 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
WNancy 0-1 MontpellierLigue 2
DMontpellier 1-1 DijonLigue 2
WMontpellier 4-2 RodezFriendlies Clubs

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Saint Etienne at 35% to win and Montpellier at 31%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Saint Etienne win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Montpellier Win	31%	@ 4.80	+49.7%
Draw	34%	@ 4.10	+39.5%
Saint Etienne Win	35%	@ 1.61	-44.0%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Montpellier or Draw at 2.15 (61% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Montpellier or Draw	61%	@ 2.15	+32.0%
Saint Etienne or Draw	65%	@ 1.14	-25.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	44%	@ 4.30	+90.2%
Under 2.5	71%	@ 2.12	+50.9%
Under 3.5	88%	@ 1.42	+24.9%
Over 1.5	56%	@ 1.17	-34.8%
Over 2.5	29%	@ 1.62	-53.3%
Over 3.5	12%	@ 2.63	-68.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	62%	@ 2.05	+27.5%
BTTS Yes	38%	@ 1.64	-38.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	36%
Dixon-Coles	Draw	36%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.33 for the home side, 1.26 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-0 (17%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.42, with 88% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.12 (+50.9% value).

Who is the favourite for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?

Our model makes a Saint Etienne win the most likely result at 35%. It projects an expected 1.0-0.9 scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier.

What is the predicted score for Saint Etienne vs Montpellier?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-0, based on expected goals of 0.97 for Saint Etienne and 0.90 for Montpellier. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Saint Etienne and Montpellier play?

Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.