⚽ UEFA Champions League
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Shakhtar Donetsk face Sporting CP in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Tuesday 03 November 2026, 17:45 UTC. Recent form: Shakhtar Donetsk have 4 wins from their last 5, while Sporting CP have 3 wins from their last 5. The bookmaker market makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 48%, implying a 1.2-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Shakhtar Donetsk with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Sporting CP win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (50%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dynamo Kyiv. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Inter.
- WShakhtar Donetsk 2-0 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- WShakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Dynamo KyivCup
- DShakhtar Donetsk 0-0 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
- LInter 1-0 Shakhtar DonetskUEFA Champions League
- WShakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
Sporting CP come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Casa Pia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Académico de Viseu.
- WCasa Pia 0-2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- WSporting CP 2-1 MarítimoTaça da Liga
- LSporting CP 1-2 Académico de ViseuPrimeira Liga
- LSporting CP 2-3 Lask LinzUEFA Champions League
- WLens 0-2 Sporting CPUEFA Champions League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- EguinaldoShoulder Injury
- V. KorniyenkoOff the roster
- MarlonMuscle Injury
- PedrinhoMuscle Injury
- T. PuzankovOff the roster
- M. ShvedOff the roster
- D. TvardovskyiOff the roster
- S. AlexandropoulosOff the roster
- Z. DebastInjury
- N. SantosKnee Injury
🧩 Line-ups
Sporting CP
Coach: Rui Borges
Shakhtar Donetsk
Coach: A. Turan
Official line-ups as announced by the clubs before kick-off.
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Shakhtar Donetsk at 33% to win and Sporting CP at 36%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP Win | 36% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk Win | 33% | 27% | @ 3.60 |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Sporting CP or Draw at 1.28 (64% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP or Draw | 64% | 73% | @ 1.28 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk or Draw | 62% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 77% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 | 45% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 | 30% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 50% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Shakhtar Donetsk or Sporting CP is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shakhtar Donetsk +2 | 88% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.75 | 86% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.5 | 83% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1.25 | 78% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Sporting CP +1 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +1 | 72% | 66% | @ 1.45 |
| Sporting CP +0.75 | 70% | 79% | 1.20 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.75 | 67% | 58% | @ 1.65 |
| Sporting CP +0.5 | 64% | 73% | 1.29 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.5 | 62% | 52% | @ 1.86 |
| Sporting CP +0.25 | 58% | 69% | 1.37 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk +0.25 | 55% | 45% | @ 2.13 |
| Sporting CP 0 | 51% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk 0 | 49% | 35% | @ 2.69 |
| Sporting CP -0.25 | 45% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.25 | 42% | 31% | @ 3.12 |
| Sporting CP -0.5 | 38% | 48% | 2.01 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 | 36% | 27% | @ 3.56 |
| Sporting CP -0.75 | 33% | 42% | 2.27 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -0.75 | 30% | 21% | @ 4.40 |
| Sporting CP -1 | 28% | 34% | 2.78 |
| Shakhtar Donetsk -1 | 26% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Sporting CP -1.25 | 22% | 30% | 3.13 |
| Sporting CP -1.5 | 17% | 27% | 3.49 |
| Sporting CP -1.75 | 14% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Sporting CP -2 | 12% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
🔬 How this pick was selected
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Away | 39% |
| Dixon-Coles | Home | 42% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 37% |
The table above shows each model’s view of the match winner. This pick is on a different market (goals or handicap) and was selected on the bookmaker market’s probability, not on our model.
The bookmaker market puts this selection at 73% with the margin removed; the odds of 1.31 imply 76% including the margin. In our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we select on the market’s probability.
Expected goals: 1.27 for the home side, 1.32 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Our main pick is Shakhtar Donetsk with a +1.5 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
Our model makes a Sporting CP win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.7 scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP.
What is the predicted score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.72 for Sporting CP. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 03 November 2026, 17:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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