⚽ Championship
Southampton vs Bolton Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Southampton vs Bolton in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Southampton 0-0 Bolton
Southampton vs Bolton finished 0-0. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Southampton face Bolton in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Southampton have 3 wins from their last 5, while Bolton have 2 wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 62%, projecting a 3.4-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Southampton vs Bolton with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 4.5% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Southampton vs Bolton comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Southampton with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 62%. Goals lean over 2.5 (85%), both teams to score points yes (73%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Southampton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Bristol City. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Wrexham.
- DSouthampton 0-0 BoltonChampionship
- WNorwich 0-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- WSouthampton 1-0 PortsmouthChampionship
- LWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
- WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol CityChampionship
Bolton come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Wolves. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Stoke City.
- DSouthampton 0-0 BoltonChampionship
- WWolves 1-3 BoltonChampionship
- LBolton 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- WNorwich 3-4 BoltonChampionship
- WBolton 1-0 CardiffChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- F. DownesAnkle Injury
- C. Forino-JosephGroin Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Southampton at 62% to win and Bolton at 17%, with the draw at 21%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton Win | 62% | 64% | @ 1.48 |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | @ 4.75 |
| Bolton Win | 17% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.12 (83% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton or Draw | 83% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Bolton or Draw | 38% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 3.4-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 85% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 84% | @ 1.12 |
| Over 2.5 | 85% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 | 30% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Under 1.5 | 5% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 73%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 73% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 27% | 39% | @ 2.38 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Southampton or Bolton is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton +0.75 | 86% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Southampton +0.5 | 83% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Southampton +0.25 | 78% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Southampton 0 | 73% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Bolton +2 | 72% | 69% | 1.38 |
| Bolton +1.75 | 68% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Southampton -0.25 | 67% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Bolton +1.5 | 63% | 56% | @ 1.69 |
| Southampton -0.5 | 62% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Bolton +1.25 | 57% | 52% | @ 1.88 |
| Southampton -0.75 | 56% | 61% | 1.55 |
| Bolton +1 | 50% | 44% | @ 2.15 |
| Southampton -1 | 50% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Bolton +0.75 | 44% | 39% | @ 2.46 |
| Southampton -1.25 | 43% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Bolton +0.5 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Southampton -1.5 | 37% | 44% | 2.19 |
| Bolton +0.25 | 33% | 28% | @ 3.41 |
| Southampton -1.75 | 32% | 38% | 2.50 |
| Southampton -2 | 28% | 31% | 3.11 |
| Bolton 0 | 27% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| Bolton -0.25 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bolton -0.5 | 17% | 16% | 5.90 |
| Bolton -0.75 | 14% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our pick is Southampton with a -0.25 handicap at odds 1.32, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Bolton?
Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 62%. It projects an expected 3.4-1.4 scoreline for Southampton vs Bolton.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Bolton?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 3-1, based on expected goals of 3.36 for Southampton and 1.42 for Bolton. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Southampton and Bolton play?
Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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