Sat 29 Aug5-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Southampton vs Millwall Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Southampton vs Millwall in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Southampton 5-1 Millwall

Southampton vs Millwall finished 5-1. Southampton won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Southampton face Millwall in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Southampton have 2 wins from their last 5, while Millwall have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Southampton won 2, Millwall won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Southampton vs Millwall with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Southampton or Draw @ 1.26

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 1.19 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	7.5%	4.5%	1.8%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.8%	7.0%	2.8%	0.8%
2	7.8%	9.3%	5.5%	2.2%	0.7%
3	4.1%	4.9%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.6%	1.9%	1.1%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Southampton winDrawMillwall win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Southampton vs Millwall comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Southampton or Draw at odds 1.26, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Southampton win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Southampton 51%Draw 27%Millwall 22%

51%27%22%

51%

Southampton Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Southampton and Millwall. Wins shown from Southampton’s perspective: Southampton 2 · Millwall 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-29	Southampton	5 – 1	Millwall	W
2024-02-24	Southampton	1 – 2	Millwall	L
2023-11-04	Millwall	0 – 1	Southampton	W

📈 Recent form

Southampton

Southampton come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Bristol City. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Wrexham.

LWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
WSouthampton 4-1 Bristol CityChampionship
WSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
DLincoln 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship
DBirmingham 1-1 SouthamptonChampionship

Millwall

Millwall come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Bolton. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Blackburn.

DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
DMiddlesbrough 2-2 MillwallChampionship
LBlackburn 3-1 MillwallChampionship
LMillwall 0-1 NewcastleLeague Cup
WMillwall 4-0 BoltonChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Southampton

T. Harwood-BellisInjury
C. JanderLacking Match Fitness

Millwall

F. AzeezAbdominal strain
T. CramaNot in squad
A. DoughtyHamstring Injury
M. IvanovicHamstring Injury
R. LeonardHamstring Injury
M. LuongoKnee Injury
D. Mazou-SackoCalf Injury
M. ServaisHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Southampton at 51% to win and Millwall at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton Win	51%	49%	@ 1.92
Draw	27%	26%	@ 3.55
Millwall Win	22%	25%	@ 3.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Southampton or Draw at 1.26 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Southampton or Draw	77%	75%	@ 1.26
Millwall or Draw	48%	51%	@ 1.84

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	76%	@ 1.23
Under 3.5	70%	69%	@ 1.35
Over 2.5	52%	52%	@ 1.80
Under 2.5	48%	48%	@ 1.96
Over 3.5	30%	31%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	24%	24%	@ 3.80

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	55%	@ 1.68
BTTS No	45%	45%	@ 2.07

📈 How the market moved

Southampton 49%Draw 26%Millwall 25%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Southampton vs Millwall?

Our model's main pick is Southampton or Draw at odds 1.26, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Southampton vs Millwall?

Our model makes a Southampton win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Southampton vs Millwall.

What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Millwall?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Southampton and 1.19 for Millwall. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Southampton and Millwall play?

Kick-off is Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.