Sporting Gijon

Sun 23 Aug1-0Finished

Burgos

⚽ Segunda División

Sporting Gijon vs Burgos Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos in the Segunda División. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Sporting Gijon 1-0 Burgos

Sporting Gijon vs Burgos finished 1-0. Sporting Gijon won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Sporting Gijon face Burgos in the Segunda División, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Sporting Gijon won 1, Burgos won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.47

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.15 – 1.43 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	10.8%	7.7%	3.7%	1.3%
1	8.7%	12.5%	8.9%	4.2%	1.5%
2	5.0%	7.2%	5.1%	2.4%	0.9%
3	1.9%	2.7%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.6%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Sporting Gijon winDrawBurgos win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.47, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burgos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Sporting Gijon 31%Draw 27%Burgos 43%

31%27%43%

43%

Burgos Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Sporting Gijon and Burgos. Wins shown from Sporting Gijon’s perspective: Sporting Gijon 1 · Burgos 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-23	Sporting Gijon	1 – 0	Burgos	W
2026-04-11	Burgos	1 – 0	Sporting Gijon	L

📈 Recent form

Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at FC Andorra. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Eldense.

WFC Andorra 1-3 Sporting GijonSegunda División
LSporting Gijon 0-1 EldenseSegunda División
LSporting Gijon 0-2 GironaSegunda División
WTenerife 0-1 Sporting GijonSegunda División
WSporting Gijon 1-0 BurgosSegunda División

Burgos

Burgos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to AD Ceuta FC. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sporting Gijon.

WLas Palmas 1-2 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-1 AD Ceuta FCSegunda División
DOviedo 0-0 BurgosSegunda División
LSporting Gijon 1-0 BurgosSegunda División
WBurgos 3-2 CordobaSegunda División

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sporting Gijon at 31% to win and Burgos at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burgos Win	43%	30%	@ 3.05
Sporting Gijon Win	31%	39%	@ 2.32
Draw	27%	31%	@ 2.88

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burgos or Draw at 1.50 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Burgos or Draw	69%	61%	@ 1.50
Sporting Gijon or Draw	57%	70%	@ 1.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	80%	@ 1.15
Over 1.5	73%	62%	@ 1.47
Under 2.5	52%	63%	@ 1.46
Over 2.5	48%	37%	@ 2.45
Under 1.5	27%	38%	@ 2.43
Over 3.5	26%	20%	@ 4.60

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	44%	@ 2.05
BTTS No	49%	56%	@ 1.64

📈 How the market moved

Sporting Gijon 39%Draw 32%Burgos 29%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.47, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

Our model makes a Burgos win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos.

What is the predicted score for Sporting Gijon vs Burgos?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.15 for Sporting Gijon and 1.43 for Burgos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sporting Gijon and Burgos play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.