⚽ Championship

Stoke City vs Norwich Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Stoke City vs Norwich in the Championship. Kick-off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Stoke City face Norwich in the Championship, kicking off Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Stoke City have 0 wins from their last 5, while Norwich have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Norwich won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Norwich win the most likely result at 39%, projecting a 1.3-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Stoke City vs Norwich with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Norwich or Draw @ 1.37

67%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.62 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.2%	8.5%	6.9%	3.7%	1.5%
1	7.0%	11.3%	9.1%	4.9%	2.0%
2	4.6%	7.5%	6.1%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.1%	3.3%	2.7%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Stoke City winDrawNorwich win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Stoke City vs Norwich is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Norwich or Draw at odds 1.37, the selection our model is most confident in at 67%. On the match result, the model rates a Norwich win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points yes (58%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.77 (+0.1% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.77, 57% model probability, +0.1% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Stoke City 32%Draw 28%Norwich 39%

32%28%39%

39%

Norwich Win

57%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

BTTS yes

+0.1%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Stoke City and Norwich. Wins shown from Stoke City’s perspective: 1 drawn · Norwich 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-22	Norwich	4 – 2	Stoke City	L
2024-10-19	Stoke City	1 – 1	Norwich	D
2024-03-16	Stoke City	0 – 3	Norwich	L
2023-09-16	Norwich	1 – 0	Stoke City	L

📈 Recent form

Stoke City

Stoke City come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Oldham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Wolves.

LWolves 4-1 Stoke CityChampionship
DStoke City 1-1 Hull CityLeague Cup
LSouthampton 3-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LStoke City 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
WStoke City 2-0 OldhamLeague Cup

Norwich

Norwich come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Burnley. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Millwall.

WNorwich 4-1 BurnleyChampionship
WCardiff 1-2 NorwichLeague Cup
LMillwall 3-0 NorwichChampionship
LNorwich 1-2 West BromChampionship
WNorwich 4-1 Milton Keynes DonsLeague Cup

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Stoke City

A. CresswellKnee Injury
A. AmpahHamstring Injury
L. CisseKnock
J. TchamadeuKnee Injury

Norwich

A. AhmedKnee Injury
P. MaghomaCalf Injury
L. MahovoAnkle Injury
M. TopicKnee Injury
J. MakamaFoot Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Stoke City at 32% to win and Norwich at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Norwich win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	28%	@ 3.40	-3.5%
Stoke City Win	32%	@ 2.95	-4.6%
Norwich Win	39%	@ 2.25	-11.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Stoke City or Draw at 1.60 (60% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Stoke City or Draw	60%	@ 1.60	-4.5%
Norwich or Draw	67%	@ 1.37	-8.7%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	34%	@ 2.95	+0.8%
Over 2.5	57%	@ 1.77	+0.1%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.23	-2.4%
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.36	-10.5%
Under 2.5	43%	@ 1.98	-14.0%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 3.85	-20.4%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 58%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	58%	@ 1.62	-5.6%
BTTS No	42%	@ 2.17	-9.4%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	41%
Dixon-Coles	Away	54%
GradientBoosting	Away	36%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.22 for the home side, 1.37 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Norwich?

Our main pick is Norwich or Draw at odds 1.37, with 67% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.77 (+0.1% value).

Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Norwich?

Our model makes a Norwich win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.6 scoreline for Stoke City vs Norwich.

What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Norwich?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Stoke City and 1.62 for Norwich. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Stoke City and Norwich play?

Kick-off is Tuesday 01 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.