⚽ Championship
Stoke City vs Swansea Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Stoke City vs Swansea in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: Stoke City 1-2 Swansea
Stoke City vs Swansea finished 1-2. Swansea won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Stoke City face Swansea in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Stoke City won 1, Swansea won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Stoke City vs Swansea with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Stoke City vs Swansea comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Swansea with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Swansea win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (51%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Stoke City and Swansea. Wins shown from Stoke City’s perspective: Stoke City 1 · 2 drawn · Swansea 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Stoke City | 1 – 2 | Swansea | L |
| 2025-02-15 | Stoke City | 3 – 1 | Swansea | W |
| 2024-10-05 | Swansea | 0 – 0 | Stoke City | D |
| 2024-04-10 | Swansea | 3 – 0 | Stoke City | L |
| 2023-12-12 | Stoke City | 1 – 1 | Swansea | D |
📈 Recent form
Stoke City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Charlton. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WStoke City 2-1 Sheffield UtdChampionship
- WWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
- DCardiff 1-1 Stoke CityChampionship
- WStoke City 4-0 CharltonChampionship
- WStoke City 1-0 NorwichChampionship
Swansea come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Burnley. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at Southampton.
- WLincoln 1-2 SwanseaChampionship
- WSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LSouthampton 3-1 SwanseaChampionship
- DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. AmpahHamstring Injury
- A. CresswellInjury
- J. TchamadeuKnee Injury
- C. BurgessAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. StewartInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Stoke City at 30% to win and Swansea at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea Win | 42% | 32% | @ 2.90 |
| Stoke City Win | 30% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Swansea or Draw at 1.55 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea or Draw | 69% | 61% | @ 1.55 |
| Stoke City or Draw | 57% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 75% | @ 1.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 70% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 54% | @ 1.72 |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 46% | @ 2.06 |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 30% | @ 3.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 52% | @ 1.79 |
| BTTS No | 49% | 48% | @ 1.91 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Stoke City or Swansea is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea +1.75 | 89% | 85% | @ 1.12 |
| Swansea +1.5 | 87% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Swansea +1.25 | 83% | 78% | @ 1.23 |
| Stoke City +1.5 | 80% | – | 1.10 |
| Swansea +1 | 78% | 75% | 1.27 |
| Stoke City +1.25 | 74% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Swansea +0.75 | 74% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Swansea +0.5 | 69% | 59% | @ 1.59 |
| Stoke City +1 | 68% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Stoke City +0.75 | 63% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Swansea +0.25 | 62% | 53% | @ 1.83 |
| Stoke City +0.5 | 57% | – | 1.37 |
| Swansea 0 | 56% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Stoke City +0.25 | 51% | 65% | 1.48 |
| Swansea -0.25 | 49% | 35% | @ 2.69 |
| Stoke City 0 | 44% | 57% | 1.67 |
| Stoke City -0.25 | 38% | 47% | 2.03 |
| Swansea -0.75 | 37% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| Swansea -1 | 32% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Stoke City -0.5 | 31% | 41% | 2.30 |
| Stoke City -0.75 | 26% | 34% | 2.80 |
| Swansea -1.25 | 26% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| Stoke City -1 | 22% | 25% | 3.77 |
| Stoke City -1.25 | 17% | 22% | 4.29 |
| Stoke City -1.5 | 13% | 20% | 4.58 |
| Stoke City -1.75 | 11% | 15% | 6.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our model's main pick is Swansea with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our model makes a Swansea win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline for Stoke City vs Swansea.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Swansea?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.11 for Stoke City and 1.49 for Swansea. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Stoke City and Swansea play?
Kick-off is Saturday 15 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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