Sat 12 Sep0-2Finished

⚽ Premier League

Sunderland vs Arsenal Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Sunderland vs Arsenal in the Premier League. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Sunderland 0-2 Arsenal

Sunderland vs Arsenal finished 0-2. Arsenal won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Sunderland face Arsenal in the upcoming Premier League tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Sunderland have 1 win from their last 3, while Arsenal have 3 wins from their last 3. In their last 3 meetings, Arsenal won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 0.8-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Sunderland vs Arsenal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.28

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.79 – 1.53 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.8%	15.0%	11.5%	5.9%	2.2%
1	7.8%	11.9%	9.1%	4.6%	1.8%
2	3.1%	4.7%	3.6%	1.8%	0.7%
3	0.8%	1.2%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

Sunderland winDrawArsenal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Sunderland vs Arsenal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Arsenal win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean under 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points no (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Sunderland 14%Draw 30%Arsenal 56%

14%30%56%

56%

Arsenal Win

59%

Under 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Sunderland and Arsenal. Wins shown from Sunderland’s perspective: 1 drawn · Arsenal 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Sunderland	0 – 2	Arsenal	L
2026-02-07	Arsenal	3 – 0	Sunderland	L
2025-11-08	Sunderland	2 – 2	Arsenal	D

📈 Recent form

Sunderland

Sunderland come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to AZ Alkmaar. Their most recent defeat was 3-5 at Manchester City.

LManchester City 5-3 SunderlandPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
LSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
WSunderland 1-0 Hull CityLeague Cup
DBrentford 1-1 SunderlandPremier League

Arsenal

Arsenal come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at Ipswich. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at Brighton.

LBrighton 3-0 ArsenalPremier League
WIpswich 2-4 ArsenalLeague Cup
WSunderland 0-2 ArsenalPremier League
WNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
WArsenal 2-1 ChelseaPremier League

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Sunderland

H. DiarraHamstring Injury
R. MundleKnee Injury

Arsenal

C. MosqueraMuscle Injury
W. SalibaBack Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Sunderland at 14% to win and Arsenal at 56%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal Win	56%	64%	@ 1.48
Draw	30%	23%	@ 4.10
Sunderland Win	14%	13%	@ 7.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Arsenal or Draw at 1.10 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal or Draw	82%	87%	@ 1.10
Sunderland or Draw	41%	36%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.8-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 59% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 1.5	67%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	59%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	41%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	33%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	20%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	57%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS Yes	43%	44%	@ 2.10

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Sunderland or Arsenal is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Arsenal +0.5	82%	86%	1.10
Arsenal +0.25	76%	85%	1.12
Sunderland +2	75%	–	1.25
Arsenal 0	70%	83%	1.16
Sunderland +1.75	70%	68%	1.41
Sunderland +1.5	66%	61%	@ 1.56
Arsenal -0.25	65%	73%	1.31
Arsenal -0.5	59%	64%	1.49
Sunderland +1.25	59%	55%	@ 1.72
Arsenal -0.75	53%	59%	1.61
Sunderland +1	53%	47%	@ 2.05
Sunderland +0.75	47%	41%	@ 2.35
Arsenal -1	47%	53%	1.83
Sunderland +0.5	41%	36%	@ 2.69
Arsenal -1.25	41%	45%	2.15
Sunderland +0.25	35%	27%	@ 3.51
Arsenal -1.5	34%	39%	2.45
Arsenal -1.75	30%	32%	2.96
Sunderland 0	30%	17%	@ 5.57
Sunderland -0.25	24%	15%	@ 6.25
Sunderland -0.5	18%	14%	@ 6.80

📈 How the market moved

Sunderland 13%Draw 23%Arsenal 64%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Arsenal?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Sunderland vs Arsenal?

Our model makes an Arsenal win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 0.8-1.5 scoreline for Sunderland vs Arsenal.

What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Arsenal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.79 for Sunderland and 1.53 for Arsenal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Sunderland and Arsenal play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.