⚽ UEFA Champions League
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético Madrid
VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
VfB Stuttgart face Atlético Madrid in the upcoming UEFA Champions League tips, kicking off Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. The bookmaker market makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 46%, implying a 1.5-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| 1 | 5.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 2.6% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is VfB Stuttgart with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 39%. Goals lean over 2.5 (77%), both teams to score points yes (76%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Hamburger SV.
- DVfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- LHamburger SV 1-0 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- WSlovan Bratislava 0-3 VfB StuttgartUEFA Champions League
- WSC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
- WVfB Stuttgart 5-0 SpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs
Atlético Madrid come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Manchester United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DVfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
- WEspanyol 0-1 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 2-0 Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League
- WAlavés 1-2 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. DiehlMuscle Injury
- S. DrljacaOff the roster
- L. StergiouOff the roster
- T. TomasMuscle Injury
- D. ZagadouMuscle Injury
- KokeMuscle Injury
- C. RomeroMuscle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices VfB Stuttgart at 36% to win and Atlético Madrid at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid Win | 39% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| VfB Stuttgart Win | 36% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.33 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid or Draw | 65% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| VfB Stuttgart or Draw | 62% | 54% | @ 1.73 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 77% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 91% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Over 2.5 | 77% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 58% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 | 42% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Under 1.5 | 9% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 76%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 76% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 24% | 35% | @ 2.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when VfB Stuttgart or Atlético Madrid is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart +2 | 88% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.75 | 87% | 86% | 1.11 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.75 | 85% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.5 | 85% | 85% | 1.12 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.5 | 83% | 73% | @ 1.30 |
| Atlético Madrid +1.25 | 80% | 84% | 1.13 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1.25 | 77% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| Atlético Madrid +1 | 75% | 83% | 1.14 |
| VfB Stuttgart +1 | 72% | 67% | @ 1.43 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.75 | 70% | 76% | 1.25 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.75 | 67% | 59% | @ 1.61 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.5 | 65% | 71% | 1.34 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.5 | 62% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Atlético Madrid +0.25 | 58% | 67% | 1.43 |
| VfB Stuttgart +0.25 | 55% | 47% | @ 2.05 |
| Atlético Madrid 0 | 52% | 62% | 1.54 |
| VfB Stuttgart 0 | 48% | 38% | @ 2.47 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 45% | 53% | 1.81 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.25 | 42% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.5 | 38% | 47% | 2.06 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.5 | 35% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Atlético Madrid -0.75 | 33% | 41% | 2.35 |
| VfB Stuttgart -0.75 | 30% | 24% | @ 4.01 |
| Atlético Madrid -1 | 28% | 33% | 2.84 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1 | 25% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.25 | 23% | 30% | 3.20 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.25 | 20% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.5 | 17% | 27% | 3.45 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.5 | 15% | 15% | 6.40 |
| Atlético Madrid -1.75 | 15% | 22% | 4.25 |
| VfB Stuttgart -1.75 | 13% | 14% | 6.60 |
| Atlético Madrid -2 | 12% | 16% | 6.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our pick is VfB Stuttgart with a +1.5 start at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 39%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.9 scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid.
What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid?
The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.45 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.86 for Atlético Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do VfB Stuttgart and Atlético Madrid play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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