Fri 23 Oct19:45Upcoming

⚽ Primeira Liga

Vitória SC vs Marítimo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória SC vs Marítimo in the Primeira Liga. Kick-off Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Vitória SC face Marítimo in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Vitória SC have no wins from their last 5, while Marítimo have no wins from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.1-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória SC vs Marítimo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.10 – 0.63 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	17.7%	11.2%	3.5%	0.7%	0.1%
1	19.5%	12.3%	3.9%	0.8%	0.1%
2	10.7%	6.8%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
3	3.9%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	1.1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

Vitória SC winDrawMarítimo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória SC vs Marítimo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Vitória SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (75%), both teams to score points no (69%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória SC 42%Draw 30%Marítimo 28%

42%30%28%

42%

Vitória SC Win

75%

Under 2.5 goals

69%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Vitória SC

Vitória SC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Recreativa de Lamelas. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Benfica.

WRecreativa de Lamelas 0-1 Vitória SCTaça de Portugal
LBenfica 2-0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 1-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
LAcadémico de Viseu 2-1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
DVitória SC 0-0 Casa PiaPrimeira Liga

Marítimo

Marítimo come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Alcochetense. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to FC Porto.

WAlcochetense 1-2 MarítimoTaça de Portugal
LMarítimo 1-2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
DGil Vicente 1-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMoreirense 3-1 MarítimoPrimeira Liga
LMarítimo 0-3 BenficaPrimeira Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória SC at 42% to win and Marítimo at 28%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC Win	42%	58%	@ 1.60
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.70
Marítimo Win	28%	16%	@ 5.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitória SC or Draw at 1.14 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vitória SC or Draw	70%	84%	@ 1.14
Marítimo or Draw	56%	42%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 75% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	90%	72%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	75%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 1.5	52%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 1.5	48%	27%	@ 3.50
Over 2.5	25%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	10%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 69%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	69%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	31%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Vitória SC 59%Draw 25%Marítimo 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?

Our model makes a Vitória SC win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.1-0.6 scoreline for Vitória SC vs Marítimo.

What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Marítimo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.10 for Vitória SC and 0.63 for Marítimo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória SC and Marítimo play?

Kick-off is Friday 23 October 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.