⚽ Championship

West Brom vs Burnley Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for West Brom vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

West Brom face Burnley in the Championship, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 0.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for West Brom vs Burnley with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.25

89%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 0.64 – 1.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	16.2%	19.1%	11.3%	4.4%	1.3%
1	10.4%	12.2%	7.2%	2.8%	0.8%
2	3.3%	3.9%	2.3%	0.9%	0.3%
3	0.7%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

Projected score: 0-1

West Brom winDrawBurnley win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for West Brom vs Burnley is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 89%. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points no (67%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.91 (+28.5% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 1.91, 67% model probability, +28.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

West Brom 19%Draw 29%Burnley 52%

19%29%52%

52%

Burnley Win

72%

Under 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS no

+28.5%

Best value: BTTS No

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between West Brom and Burnley. Wins shown from West Brom’s perspective: 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-03-11	Burnley	1 – 1	West Brom	D
2024-11-07	West Brom	0 – 0	Burnley	D

📈 Recent form

West Brom

West Brom come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at Rotherham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WNorwich 1-2 West BromChampionship
WRotherham 1-4 West BromLeague Cup
WPeterborough 0-2 West BromFriendlies Clubs
WShrewsbury 1-4 West BromFriendlies Clubs
WWest Brom 4-1 BromleyFriendlies Clubs

Burnley

Burnley come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Torino.

DBurnley 2-2 West HamChampionship
LBurnley 0-1 TorinoFriendlies Clubs
DBurnley 2-2 EspanyolFriendlies Clubs
LAjax 2-1 BurnleyFriendlies Clubs
DColumbus Crew 1-1 BurnleyFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

West Brom

T. BanyNot in squad
A. HeggeboSuspended

Burnley

E. AgyeiInjury
J. BanelInjury
A. BarnesInjury
J. BeyerHamstring Injury
J. CullenKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices West Brom at 19% to win and Burnley at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley Win	52%	@ 2.46	+27.8%
Draw	29%	@ 3.25	-4.9%
West Brom Win	19%	@ 2.80	-47.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.42 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Burnley or Draw	78%	@ 1.42	+11.5%
West Brom or Draw	45%	@ 1.50	-32.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 72% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	46%	@ 3.10	+41.6%
Under 2.5	72%	@ 1.70	+23.3%
Under 3.5	89%	@ 1.25	+11.0%
Over 1.5	54%	@ 1.36	-26.1%
Over 2.5	28%	@ 2.10	-42.3%
Over 3.5	11%	@ 3.80	-57.5%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	67%	@ 1.91	+28.5%
BTTS Yes	33%	@ 1.83	-40.1%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	44%
Dixon-Coles	Away	53%
GradientBoosting	Away	54%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 0.98 for the home side, 1.72 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (19%), 0-0 (16%), 0-2 (13%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for West Brom vs Burnley?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 89% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.91 (+28.5% value).

Who is the favourite for West Brom vs Burnley?

Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 0.6-1.2 scoreline for West Brom vs Burnley.

What is the predicted score for West Brom vs Burnley?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.64 for West Brom and 1.18 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do West Brom and Burnley play?

Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.