⚽ Championship
West Brom vs Burnley Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for West Brom vs Burnley in the Championship. Kick-off Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.
Result: West Brom 3-1 Burnley
West Brom vs Burnley finished 3-1. West Brom won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
West Brom face Burnley in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, West Brom won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 0.7-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for West Brom vs Burnley with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0% | 18.9% | 11.2% | 4.4% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 12.3% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for West Brom vs Burnley comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Burnley with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Burnley win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean under 2.5 (72%), both teams to score points no (66%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 3 meetings between West Brom and Burnley. Wins shown from West Brom’s perspective: West Brom 1 · 2 drawn.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | West Brom | 3 – 1 | Burnley | W |
| 2025-03-11 | Burnley | 1 – 1 | West Brom | D |
| 2024-11-07 | West Brom | 0 – 0 | Burnley | D |
📈 Recent form
West Brom come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Derby. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Wolves.
- LWolves 1-0 West BromChampionship
- DWest Brom 1-1 QPRChampionship
- WDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- WWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
- DWest Brom 1-1 CharltonChampionship
Burnley come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at Swansea.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LSwansea 3-1 BurnleyChampionship
- DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
- LBurnley 1-2 Bristol CityChampionship
- DBurnley 1-1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- M. JohnstonBroken Leg
- E. AgyeiInjury
- J. BanelInjury
- A. BarnesInjury
- J. BeyerHamstring Injury
- J. CullenKnee Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices West Brom at 19% to win and Burnley at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley Win | 52% | 37% | @ 2.50 |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | @ 3.20 |
| West Brom Win | 19% | 33% | @ 2.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Burnley or Draw at 1.42 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley or Draw | 78% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| West Brom or Draw | 46% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 72% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 89% | 75% | @ 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 55% | 70% | @ 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 | 45% | 30% | @ 3.15 |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 45% | @ 2.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 66% | 48% | @ 1.92 |
| BTTS Yes | 34% | 52% | @ 1.79 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when West Brom or Burnley is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley +1.5 | 92% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Burnley +1.25 | 89% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Burnley +1 | 85% | – | @ 1.18 |
| Burnley +0.75 | 82% | 73% | @ 1.31 |
| Burnley +0.5 | 78% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| West Brom +1.75 | 74% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 72% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| West Brom +1.5 | 70% | 82% | 1.16 |
| Burnley 0 | 66% | 53% | @ 1.83 |
| West Brom +1.25 | 64% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Burnley -0.25 | 60% | 44% | @ 2.18 |
| West Brom +1 | 58% | 78% | 1.23 |
| Burnley -0.5 | 54% | 38% | @ 2.46 |
| West Brom +0.75 | 52% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Burnley -0.75 | 48% | 31% | @ 3.07 |
| West Brom +0.5 | 46% | 62% | 1.52 |
| Burnley -1 | 42% | 22% | @ 4.26 |
| West Brom +0.25 | 40% | 56% | 1.71 |
| Burnley -1.25 | 36% | 20% | @ 4.65 |
| West Brom 0 | 34% | 47% | 2.05 |
| Burnley -1.5 | 30% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| West Brom -0.25 | 28% | 40% | 2.42 |
| Burnley -1.75 | 26% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| West Brom -0.5 | 22% | 35% | 2.73 |
| West Brom -0.75 | 18% | 27% | 3.54 |
| West Brom -1.25 | 11% | 17% | 5.50 |
| West Brom -1.5 | 8% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for West Brom vs Burnley?
Our model's main pick is Burnley with a +0.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 73%.
Who is the favourite for West Brom vs Burnley?
Our model makes a Burnley win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.2 scoreline for West Brom vs Burnley.
What is the predicted score for West Brom vs Burnley?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 0-1, based on expected goals of 0.65 for West Brom and 1.18 for Burnley. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do West Brom and Burnley play?
Kick-off is Sunday 23 August 2026, 11:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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