⚽ Championship
West Ham vs Derby Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for West Ham vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Result: West Ham 3-0 Derby
West Ham vs Derby finished 3-0. West Ham won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
West Ham face Derby in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: West Ham have no wins from their last 3, while Derby have no wins from their last 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a West Ham win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for West Ham vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 11.6% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.6% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.7% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for West Ham vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Derby with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 85% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a West Ham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
West Ham come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 6-0 at home to Wrexham. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Fulham.
- DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship
- LWest Ham 2-3 FulhamLeague Cup
- WWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
- WBolton 2-3 West HamChampionship
- WWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
Derby come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Portsmouth. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Birmingham.
- DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship
- LDerby 1-2 BirminghamChampionship
- LDerby 0-1 West BromChampionship
- LWest Ham 3-0 DerbyChampionship
- WPortsmouth 0-2 DerbyChampionship
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- T. SoucekAnkle Injury
- P. AgyemangAchilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeCalf Injury
- C. ForsythKnee Injury
- C. MorrisCalf Injury
- D. MurkinHamstring Injury
- L. TravisLeg Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices West Ham at 44% to win and Derby at 30%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a West Ham win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham Win | 44% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Derby Win | 30% | 10% | @ 9.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 18% | @ 5.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is West Ham or Draw at 1.05 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham or Draw | 70% | 90% | @ 1.05 |
| Derby or Draw | 56% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 66% | @ 1.42 |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 22% | @ 4.20 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 45% | @ 2.04 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 55% | @ 1.70 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when West Ham or Derby is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby +2 | 85% | 70% | @ 1.35 |
| Derby +1.75 | 82% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Derby +1.5 | 79% | 56% | @ 1.71 |
| Derby +1.25 | 73% | 50% | @ 1.93 |
| West Ham +0.5 | 70% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Derby +1 | 68% | 42% | @ 2.28 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 63% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Derby +0.75 | 62% | 37% | @ 2.58 |
| West Ham 0 | 57% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Derby +0.5 | 56% | 32% | @ 2.94 |
| West Ham -0.25 | 50% | 74% | 1.27 |
| Derby +0.25 | 50% | 26% | @ 3.71 |
| West Ham -0.5 | 44% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Derby 0 | 43% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| West Ham -0.75 | 38% | 63% | 1.50 |
| Derby -0.25 | 37% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| West Ham -1 | 32% | 58% | 1.65 |
| Derby -0.5 | 30% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| West Ham -1.25 | 27% | 50% | 1.93 |
| West Ham -1.5 | 21% | 44% | 2.15 |
| West Ham -1.75 | 18% | 38% | 2.50 |
| West Ham -2 | 15% | 30% | 3.18 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for West Ham vs Derby?
Our model's main pick is Derby with a +2 start at odds 1.35, with a 85% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.
Who is the favourite for West Ham vs Derby?
Our model makes a West Ham win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for West Ham vs Derby.
What is the predicted score for West Ham vs Derby?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for West Ham and 1.11 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do West Ham and Derby play?
Kick-off is Saturday 05 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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