⚽ Championship

Wrexham vs Birmingham Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wrexham vs Birmingham in the Championship. Kick-off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Wrexham face Birmingham in the Championship, kicking off Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wrexham vs Birmingham with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

76%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.57 – 0.91 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.4%	7.6%	3.5%	1.1%	0.2%
1	13.1%	12.0%	5.4%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.3%	9.4%	4.3%	1.3%	0.3%
3	5.4%	4.9%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%
4	2.1%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Wrexham winDrawBirmingham win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Wrexham vs Birmingham is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, the selection our model is most confident in at 76%. On the match result, the model rates a Wrexham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points no (53%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.05 (+8.0% model value).

Best value

BTTS No at odds 2.05, 53% model probability, +8.0% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Wrexham 41%Draw 29%Birmingham 30%

41%29%30%

41%

Wrexham Win

55%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS no

+8.0%

Best value: BTTS No

📈 Recent form

Wrexham

Wrexham come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 5. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Middlesbrough.

DWrexham 1-1 WatfordChampionship
DCardiff 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
LMiddlesbrough 1-0 WrexhamLeague Cup
LWrexham 0-1 SunderlandPremier League – Summe
LLiverpool 1-0 WrexhamPremier League – Summe

Birmingham

Birmingham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Swansea. Their only defeat in that run was 1-6 at home to Brentford.

LBirmingham 1-6 BrentfordLeague Cup
DBirmingham 2-2 Bristol CityChampionship
DSheffield Utd 0-0 BirminghamChampionship
WSwansea 0-1 BirminghamLeague Cup
WCrewe 1-2 BirminghamFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Wrexham

S. RevanHamstring Injury
L. CacaceCalf Injury
B. SheafNot in squad
J. WindassCalf Injury

Birmingham

T. Gardner-HickmanInjury
M. LeonardAchilles Tendon Injury
L. BuchananKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Wrexham at 41% to win and Birmingham at 30%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Wrexham Win	41%	@ 2.45	+1.4%
Draw	29%	@ 3.10	-9.9%
Birmingham Win	30%	@ 2.92	-13.7%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Wrexham or Draw at 1.38 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Wrexham or Draw	69%	@ 1.38	-4.8%
Birmingham or Draw	57%	@ 1.53	-12.5%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 3.5	76%	@ 1.30	-1.0%
Under 2.5	55%	@ 1.80	-1.2%
Under 1.5	29%	@ 3.25	-5.3%
Over 1.5	71%	@ 1.33	-5.8%
Over 2.5	45%	@ 2.00	-9.8%
Over 3.5	24%	@ 3.45	-17.8%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	53%	@ 2.05	+8.0%
BTTS Yes	47%	@ 1.73	-18.2%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	53%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

Both models that could assess this match agree. Our Dixon-Coles model has no reliable team ratings for this competition and was left out, so this rests on two models rather than three.

Expected goals: 1.43 for the home side, 1.18 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with 76% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.05 (+8.0% value).

Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Birmingham?

Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline for Wrexham vs Birmingham.

What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Birmingham?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.57 for Wrexham and 0.91 for Birmingham. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Wrexham and Birmingham play?

Kick-off is Friday 28 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.