Sat 22 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ Championship

Wrexham vs Watford Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Wrexham vs Watford in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Wrexham 1-1 Watford

Wrexham vs Watford finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Wrexham face Watford in the upcoming Championship tips, kicking off Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Wrexham vs Watford with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Wrexham +0.5 @ 1.26

83%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.61 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	7.3%	4.2%	1.6%	0.4%
1	10.3%	11.7%	6.7%	2.5%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.4%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.1%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Wrexham winDrawWatford win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Wrexham vs Watford comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Wrexham to win or draw at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Wrexham win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Wrexham 60%Draw 26%Watford 15%

60%26%15%

60%

Wrexham Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Wrexham

Wrexham come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Millwall. Their only defeat in that run was 0-6 at West Ham.

WWrexham 2-1 SouthamptonChampionship
LWest Ham 6-0 WrexhamChampionship
DWrexham 1-1 BurnleyChampionship
DSwansea 0-0 WrexhamChampionship
WMillwall 0-3 WrexhamChampionship

Watford

Watford come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Preston. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Bristol City.

LBristol City 1-0 WatfordChampionship
LWatford 1-2 Stoke CityChampionship
WWatford 2-1 PrestonChampionship
LWest Brom 1-0 WatfordChampionship
LSwansea 2-0 WatfordChampionship

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 9 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Wrexham

L. CacaceCalf Injury
S. RevanHamstring Injury
B. SheafNot in squad
J. WindassCalf Injury

Watford

T. AkomeahLacking Match Fitness
K. BaahKnock
M. BolaHamstring Injury
J. GrievesLacking Match Fitness
J. NgakiaThigh Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Wrexham at 60% to win and Watford at 15%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham Win	60%	49%	@ 1.89
Draw	26%	26%	@ 3.55
Watford Win	15%	24%	@ 3.85

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Wrexham or Draw at 1.24 (83% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham or Draw	83%	76%	@ 1.24
Watford or Draw	39%	51%	@ 1.87

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	75%	@ 1.24
Under 3.5	70%	69%	@ 1.34
Over 2.5	52%	51%	@ 1.81
Under 2.5	48%	49%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	30%	31%	@ 3.05
Under 1.5	24%	25%	@ 3.70

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	46%	45%	@ 2.04

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Wrexham or Watford is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Wrexham +1.5	95%	87%	@ 1.06
Wrexham +1	89%	86%	1.10
Wrexham +0.75	86%	81%	@ 1.17
Wrexham +0.5	83%	75%	@ 1.26
Wrexham +0.25	78%	72%	@ 1.33
Watford +2	73%	85%	1.12
Wrexham 0	72%	67%	@ 1.41
Watford +1.75	68%	79%	1.20
Wrexham -0.25	67%	57%	@ 1.67
Watford +1.5	63%	73%	1.30
Wrexham -0.5	62%	50%	@ 1.90
Watford +1.25	57%	70%	1.36
Wrexham -0.75	55%	43%	@ 2.22
Watford +1	51%	65%	1.46
Wrexham -1	49%	35%	@ 2.74
Watford +0.75	45%	57%	1.68
Wrexham -1.25	43%	30%	@ 3.15
Watford +0.5	39%	50%	1.89
Wrexham -1.5	37%	27%	@ 3.44
Watford +0.25	33%	43%	2.23
Wrexham -1.75	32%	21%	@ 4.40
Watford 0	28%	33%	2.86
Wrexham -2	27%	15%	@ 6.40
Watford -0.25	22%	28%	3.35
Watford -0.5	17%	25%	3.72
Watford -0.75	14%	19%	5.00
Watford -1	11%	14%	6.80
Watford -1.5	5%	13%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Wrexham 49%Draw 26%Watford 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wrexham vs Watford?

Our model's main pick is Wrexham to win or draw at odds 1.26, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Wrexham vs Watford?

Our model makes a Wrexham win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Wrexham vs Watford.

What is the predicted score for Wrexham vs Watford?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for Wrexham and 1.14 for Watford. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Wrexham and Watford play?

Kick-off is Saturday 22 August 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.