⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Shelbourne vs Ajax Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Shelbourne vs Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

Shelbourne face Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Shelbourne win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Shelbourne vs Ajax with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.80

72%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.51 – 1.16 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.9%	8.0%	4.7%	1.8%	0.5%
1	10.5%	12.1%	7.0%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.2%	5.3%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.0%	4.6%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.5%	1.7%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Shelbourne winDrawAjax win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Shelbourne vs Ajax is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80, the selection our model is most confident in at 72%. On the match result, the model rates a Shelbourne win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.95 (+47.8% model value).

Best value

Under 2.5 at odds 2.95, 50% model probability, +47.8% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Shelbourne 37%Draw 28%Ajax 34%

37%28%34%

37%

Shelbourne Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

+47.8%

Best value: Under 2.5

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Shelbourne at 37% to win and Ajax at 34%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Shelbourne win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Shelbourne Win	37%	16.00	+497.8%
Draw	28%	7.10	+100.1%
Ajax Win	34%	1.13	-61.1%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	25%	6.00	+52.5%
Under 2.5	50%	2.95	+47.8%
Under 3.5	72%	1.80	+29.7%
Over 1.5	75%	1.11	-17.2%
Over 2.5	50%	1.36	-32.1%
Over 3.5	28%	1.93	-46.1%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	54%	1.95	+4.3%
BTTS No	46%	1.70	-21.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Away	36%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.33 for the home side, 1.27 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Shelbourne vs Ajax?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.80, with 72% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.95 (+47.8% value).

Who is the favourite for Shelbourne vs Ajax?

Our model makes a Shelbourne win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline for Shelbourne vs Ajax.

What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Ajax?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Shelbourne and 1.16 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Shelbourne and Ajax play?

Kick-off is Thursday 13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.