vs
⚽ UEFA Champions League
Fenerbahçe vs Lyon Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon in the UEFA Champions League. Kick-off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Fenerbahçe face Lyon in the UEFA Champions League, kicking off Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 2.0-0.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.7% | 9.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.7% | 9.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 7.8% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Fenerbahçe win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 2.05 (+4.8% model value).
📊 Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Fenerbahçe at 44% to win and Lyon at 18%, with the draw at 37%. Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 37% | @ 3.70 | +37.8% |
| Fenerbahçe Win | 44% | @ 2.04 | -9.2% |
| Lyon Win | 18% | @ 3.25 | -40.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fenerbahçe or Draw at 1.30 (76% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe or Draw | 76% | @ 1.30 | -1.8% |
| Lyon or Draw | 49% | @ 1.77 | -12.7% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 54% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 54% | @ 1.80 | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.25 | -3.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 68% | @ 1.38 | -5.4% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | @ 3.00 | -5.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | @ 2.00 | -7.5% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 3.80 | -14.1% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 51% | @ 2.05 | +4.8% |
| BTTS Yes | 49% | @ 1.65 | -19.3% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 64% |
| GradientBoosting | Draw | 43% |
Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.
Expected goals: 1.61 for the home side, 1.04 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (10%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 2.05 (+4.8% value).
Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
Our model makes a Fenerbahçe win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 2.0-0.8 scoreline for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon.
What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs Lyon?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Fenerbahçe and 0.84 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Fenerbahçe and Lyon play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 18 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.