Fri 9 Oct00:30Upcoming

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Fluminense vs Coritiba Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Fluminense vs Coritiba in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Fluminense face Coritiba in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC. Recent form: Fluminense have 3 wins from their last 5, while Coritiba have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Fluminense won 1, Coritiba won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 60%, projecting a 2.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Fluminense vs Coritiba with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

88%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.35 – 1.31 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.6%	3.4%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%
1	6.0%	7.9%	5.2%	2.3%	0.7%
2	7.1%	9.3%	6.1%	2.7%	0.9%
3	5.6%	7.3%	4.8%	2.1%	0.7%
4	3.3%	4.3%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%

Projected score: 2-1

Fluminense winDrawCoritiba win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Fluminense win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 60%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Fluminense 60%Draw 24%Coritiba 17%

60%24%17%

60%

Fluminense Win

71%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Fluminense and Coritiba. Wins shown from Fluminense’s perspective: Fluminense 1 · 1 drawn · Coritiba 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-04	Coritiba	1 – 1	Fluminense	D
2023-11-26	Fluminense	2 – 1	Coritiba	W
2023-07-24	Coritiba	2 – 0	Fluminense	L

📈 Recent form

Fluminense

Fluminense come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Corinthians. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Platense.

WCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LPlatense 2-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
LAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
WFluminense 2-0 PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.

LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Fluminense

AlissonHip Injury
G. CanoHamstring Injury
A. CanobbioSuspended (cards)
GugaNot in squad
John KennedyKnee Injury
Matheus ReisKnee Injury
NonatoSuspended (cards)
IgnacioHamstring Injury

Coritiba

JacyNot in squad
KenoKnee Injury
Lucas RonierKnee Injury
B. OcampoAnkle Injury
TingaMuscle Injury
Joao Pedro ChermontNot in squad

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Fluminense at 60% to win and Coritiba at 17%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense Win	60%	64%	@ 1.48
Draw	24%	23%	@ 4.10
Coritiba Win	17%	13%	@ 7.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Fluminense or Draw at 1.10 (82% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Fluminense or Draw	82%	87%	@ 1.10
Coritiba or Draw	40%	36%	@ 2.62

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	88%	75%	@ 1.28
Over 2.5	71%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 3.5	50%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 3.5	50%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 2.5	29%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	12%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	47%	@ 2.00
BTTS No	34%	53%	@ 1.75

📈 How the market moved

Fluminense 64%Draw 23%Coritiba 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Coritiba?

Our model makes a Fluminense win the most likely result at 60%. It projects an expected 2.4-1.3 scoreline for Fluminense vs Coritiba.

What is the predicted score for Fluminense vs Coritiba?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.35 for Fluminense and 1.31 for Coritiba. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Fluminense and Coritiba play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 00:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.