🏆 Competitions

Brazilian Série A

Brazilian Série A Betting Tips

Free Brazilian Série A match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 975 matches from our own database.

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Key facts
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Method
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Most likely picks this week (accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Bahia vs Sao Paulo
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct
00:30		Over 1.573.4%@ 1.33
Santos vs Palmeiras
Brazil, Serie A
Wed 28 Oct
22:30		Over 1.572.4%@ 1.33
Corinthians vs Mirassol
Brazil, Serie A
Fri 30 Oct
23:00		Over 1.572.0%@ 1.33
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct
22:30		Under 3.571.9%@ 1.33
Coritiba vs Gremio
Brazil, Serie A
Mon 26 Oct
22:30		AH Gremio +171.8%@ 1.33
Fluminense vs Internacional
Brazil, Serie A
Wed 28 Oct
22:30		Over 1.571.1%@ 1.36
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct
23:00		Under 3.570.2%@ 1.36

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Market probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Coritiba vs Gremio ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Mon 26 Oct · 22:30		Market43%@2.2029%@3.3028%@3.4075%@1.2870%@1.3655%@1.70
Gremio +2
86%
@ 1.11
Coritiba +1.25
86%
@ 1.11
Coritiba +1.5
86%
@ 1.10
Coritiba +1.0
84%
@ 1.12
Gremio +1.75
83%
@ 1.15
Coritiba +0.75
77%
@ 1.24
Gremio +1.5
76%
@ 1.25
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Gremio +1.25
75%
@ 1.27
DC 1X
72%
@ 1.30
Gremio +1
72%
@ 1.33
Coritiba +0.5
71%
@ 1.34
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
Coritiba +0.25
66%
@ 1.44
Gremio +0.75
63%
@ 1.51
Coritiba 0.0
60%
@ 1.60
DC X2
57%
@ 1.67
Gremio +0.5
56%
@ 1.69
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
Over 2.5
51%
@ 1.85
Coritiba -0.25
51%
@ 1.92
Under 2.5
49%
@ 1.95
Gremio +0.25
49%
@ 1.96
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Coritiba -0.5
44%
@ 2.18
Home Win
43%
@ 2.20
Gremio 0
40%
@ 2.38
Coritiba -0.75
37%
@ 2.57
Gremio -0.25
34%
@ 2.80
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
29%
@ 3.30
Gremio -0.5
29%
@ 3.28
Away Win
28%
@ 3.40
Coritiba -1.0
28%
@ 3.37
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Coritiba -1.25
25%
@ 3.81
Coritiba -1.5
24%
@ 4.03
Gremio -0.75
23%
@ 4.13
Coritiba -1.75
17%
@ 5.50
Gremio -1
16%
@ 6.00
Coritiba -2.0
14%
@ 6.60
Gremio -1.25
14%
@ 6.60
Gremio -1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Mon 26 Oct · 23:00		Market71%@1.3320%@4.759%@10.0081%@1.1760%@1.5748%@1.95
DC 1X
91%
@ 1.06
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Flamengo -0.25
79%
@ 1.20
Home Win
71%
@ 1.33
Flamengo -0.75
70%
@ 1.37
Flamengo -1.0
65%
@ 1.47
Atletico-MG +2
62%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
Flamengo -1.25
57%
@ 1.67
Atletico-MG +1.75
55%
@ 1.73
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
Flamengo -1.5
51%
@ 1.91
Atletico-MG +1.5
49%
@ 1.96
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
Flamengo -1.75
45%
@ 2.12
Atletico-MG +1.25
43%
@ 2.22
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.35
Flamengo -2.0
38%
@ 2.53
Atletico-MG +1
35%
@ 2.75
Atletico-MG +0.75
30%
@ 3.15
DC X2
29%
@ 3.25
Atletico-MG +0.25
21%
@ 4.40
Draw
20%
@ 4.75
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
9%
@ 10.00
Flamengo -0.5
—
@ 1.31
RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense-sc ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Wed 28 Oct · 22:30		Market71%@1.3019%@5.0010%@9.0081%@1.1760%@1.5750%@1.91
DC 1X
90%
@ 1.07
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Home Win
71%
@ 1.30
Over 2.5
61%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
50%
@ 1.91
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
39%
@ 2.40
DC X2
29%
@ 3.40
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
10%
@ 9.00
Fluminense vs Internacional ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Wed 28 Oct · 22:30		Market48%@1.9028%@3.3024%@3.9070%@1.3676%@1.2548%@1.95
DC 1X
76%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
76%
@ 1.25
Over 1.5
70%
@ 1.36
Under 2.5
55%
@ 1.70
DC X2
52%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
Home Win
48%
@ 1.90
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Under 1.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
28%
@ 3.30
Away Win
24%
@ 3.90
Over 3.5
24%
@ 4.00
Santos vs Palmeiras ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Wed 28 Oct · 22:30		Market31%@3.0029%@3.2540%@2.3572%@1.3375%@1.2852%@1.80
Under 3.5
75%
@ 1.28
Over 1.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC X2
69%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
60%
@ 1.57
Under 2.5
54%
@ 1.75
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
46%
@ 2.05
Away Win
40%
@ 2.35
Home Win
31%
@ 3.00
Draw
29%
@ 3.25
Under 1.5
28%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
25%
@ 3.75
Bahia vs Sao Paulo ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct · 00:30		Market48%@1.9127%@3.4024%@3.8072%@1.3373%@1.3052%@1.80
DC 1X
76%
@ 1.25
Under 3.5
73%
@ 1.30
Over 1.5
72%
@ 1.33
Under 2.5
53%
@ 1.80
DC X2
52%
@ 1.83
BTTS Yes
52%
@ 1.80
Home Win
48%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
47%
@ 2.00
Under 1.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
27%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
27%
@ 3.50
Away Win
24%
@ 3.80
Remo vs Botafogo ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct · 00:30		Market37%@2.5027%@3.4035%@2.6278%@1.2266%@1.4459%@1.57
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
DC 1X
65%
@ 1.44
DC X2
63%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.08
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Home Win
37%
@ 2.50
Away Win
35%
@ 2.62
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Draw
27%
@ 3.40
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct · 22:30		Market39%@2.4028%@3.4033%@2.8075%@1.2872%@1.3353%@1.75
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC 1X
67%
@ 1.40
DC X2
61%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
53%
@ 1.75
Under 2.5
51%
@ 1.85
Over 2.5
49%
@ 1.95
BTTS No
47%
@ 2.00
Home Win
39%
@ 2.40
Away Win
33%
@ 2.80
Draw
28%
@ 3.40
Over 3.5
28%
@ 3.40
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Vasco DA Gama vs Flamengo ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Thu 29 Oct · 23:00		Market26%@3.6027%@3.4047%@2.0075%@1.2870%@1.3655%@1.70
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
DC X2
74%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
DC 1X
53%
@ 1.80
Over 2.5
51%
@ 1.85
Under 2.5
49%
@ 1.95
Away Win
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
27%
@ 3.40
Home Win
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Fri 30 Oct · 00:30		Market39%@2.3529%@3.2532%@2.9068%@1.4076%@1.2548%@1.95
Under 3.5
76%
@ 1.25
DC 1X
68%
@ 1.40
Over 1.5
68%
@ 1.40
DC X2
61%
@ 1.57
Under 2.5
57%
@ 1.65
BTTS No
52%
@ 1.80
BTTS Yes
48%
@ 1.95
Over 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Home Win
39%
@ 2.35
Away Win
32%
@ 2.90
Under 1.5
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
29%
@ 3.25
Over 3.5
24%
@ 4.00
Corinthians vs Mirassol ▼
Brazil, Serie A
Fri 30 Oct · 23:00		Market58%@1.6025%@3.7517%@5.5072%@1.3375%@1.2845%@2.05
DC 1X
83%
@ 1.14
Under 3.5
75%
@ 1.28
Over 1.5
72%
@ 1.33
Home Win
58%
@ 1.60
BTTS No
55%
@ 1.70
Under 2.5
54%
@ 1.75
Over 2.5
46%
@ 2.05
BTTS Yes
45%
@ 2.05
DC X2
42%
@ 2.30
Under 1.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Over 3.5
25%
@ 3.75
Away Win
17%
@ 5.50
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Brazilian Série A

The Brazilian Série A is the top division in Brazil: 20 clubs play 38 matchdays each season.

We track every match in the Brazilian Série A in our own database: 975 matches since April 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.68
goals per match on average
52.6%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
60.7%
of matches see both teams score
48.7%
home wins

Based on 234 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: the Brazilian Série A in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 975 from April 2023 to October 2026:

⚽
2.52 goals per match
47.9% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 21.9% over 3.5. The lowest of the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
47.4% home wins
Draws 26.7%, away wins 25.9%. Home sides scored 1.45 goals per match, away sides 1.07. Above the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
53.0% both teams scored
7.2% of matches ended 0-0. Below the average of 54.2% across the 16 competitions we cover.
📊
1-1 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-1 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.3%), 2-1 (11.8%), 2-0 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.7%).
🥅
73.6% over 1.5 goals
In 26.4% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
26.7% draws
How often matches ended level. Above the average of 24.1% across the 16 competitions we cover.

By period:

Period Matches Goals Home wins Over 2.5 BTTS
Before Jul 2023 120 2.56 50.8% 48.3% 51.7%
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 384 2.45 45.6% 44.5% 49.7%
Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 256 2.45 47.7% 47.7% 51.6%
Since Jul 2025 215 2.69 48.4% 54.0% 61.4%

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 50.0% of 114 matches in the Brazilian Série A, against 52.8% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 4.0%. Favourites here came in about as often as priced.

Our model picked the right result in 42.3% of 215 live matches in the Brazilian Série A since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 44.4% on 205 matches.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in the Brazilian Série A

Our published tips in the Brazilian Série A since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 43 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 24 80.5% 1.34 +7.4%
Extra tips 19 15.6% 2.18 −58.6%
All tips 43 52.1% 1.71 −21.8%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

81.4% of our main tips won 22 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 26 Oct 2026⏳ Pending
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG
Pick: Flamengo Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.36
💡 Market consensus puts this at 69.8% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.36 imply about 74% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 26 Oct 2026⏳ Pending
Coritiba vs Gremio
Pick: Gremio Asian Handicap +1.0 @ 1.32
💡 Market consensus puts this at 71.8% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.32 imply about 76% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 23 Oct 2026✅ Win
Cruzeiro vs Remo
Pick: Remo Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.80
💡 Market consensus puts this at 53.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Palmeiras Palmeiras3220935622+3469
WWWWD
2Flamengo Flamengo3120746125+3667
WWDWW
3Cruzeiro Cruzeiro32166105146+554
WWLWW
4Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense3215985038+1254
DLWDW
5Fluminense Fluminense3214995041+951
LLLWW
6Atletico-MG Atletico-MG3114894235+750
WWDWD
7Bahia Bahia32131184540+550
DLWLL
8Santos Santos321210104947+246
DWLDW
9Sao Paulo Sao Paulo32127133736+143
DWWLL
10RB Bragantino RB Bragantino32118133938+141
LDWDL
11Botafogo Botafogo32109134451-739
LWDLL
12Coritiba Coritiba31109123849-1139
LDLLD
13Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama31108133945-638
WLDWW
14Vitoria Vitoria32108143546-1138
DDLWL
15Mirassol Mirassol32910133745-837
DWLDW
16Internacional Internacional32811133640-435
WLDWL
17Corinthians Corinthians3289153442-833
LDLLL
18Gremio Gremio31710143444-1031
LDDDL
19Remo Remo32511163450-1626
LDDDL
20Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc3149183263-3121
WLLLD
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
V
K. Viveros21
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
3
2
P
Pedro16
FlamengoFlamengo
6
3
B
Gabriel Barbosa15
SantosSantos
3
4
V
Carlos Vinícius11
GremioGremio
1
5
J
Kaio Jorge11
CruzeiroCruzeiro
2
6
J
Luciano Juba11
BahiaBahia
1
7
S
Danilo Santos10
BotafogoBotafogo
2
8
R
Rene10
VitoriaVitoria
1
9
C
J. Calleri10
Sao PauloSao Paulo
1
10
L
Samuel Lino9
FlamengoFlamengo
8

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
P
Andreas Pereira10
PalmeirasPalmeiras
2
J
Josué10
CoritibaCoritiba
3
L
Samuel Lino8
FlamengoFlamengo
4
C
J. Carrascal8
FlamengoFlamengo
5
P
Matheus Pereira7
CruzeiroCruzeiro
6
P
Pedro6
FlamengoFlamengo
7
L
J. López6
PalmeirasPalmeiras
8
E
Erick6
VitoriaVitoria
9
G
R. Garro6
CorinthiansCorinthians
10
A
L. Acosta5
FluminenseFluminense

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in the Brazilian Série A?

In our database the Brazilian Série A averages 2.52 goals per match over 975 matches since April 2023. 47.9% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 53.0% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in the Brazilian Série A?

Home sides won 47.4% of 975 matches in our database, draws were 26.7% and away wins 25.9%.

How accurate are your predictions in the Brazilian Série A?

Our model picked the right result in 42.3% of 215 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 43 settled, with a return of −21.8%.

Are your tips in the Brazilian Série A free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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