🏆 Competitions
Major League Soccer Betting Tips
Free Major League Soccer match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 1,346 matches from our own database.
Upcoming Major League Soccer fixtures
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Most likely picks this week (accumulator)
Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished
Model vs market this week
Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished
These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.
Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -6.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.
Market probabilities
| Match | Source | Home% | Draw% | Away% | O1.5 | U3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. | |||||||
| Inter Miami vs FC Cincinnati ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Wed 28 Oct · 23:30 | Market | 61%@1.53 | 20%@4.75 | 20%@4.75 | 91%@1.05 | 41%@2.25 | 72%@1.30 |
Over 1.5 91% @ 1.05 DC 1X 80% @ 1.18 Over 2.5 77% @ 1.22 BTTS Yes 72% @ 1.30 Home Win 61% @ 1.53 Over 3.5 59% @ 1.57 Under 3.5 41% @ 2.25 DC X2 39% @ 2.38 BTTS No 28% @ 3.40 Under 2.5 23% @ 4.20 Draw 20% @ 4.75 Away Win 20% @ 4.75 Under 1.5 9% @ 11.00 | |||||||
| New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Wed 28 Oct · 23:30 | Market | 51%@1.80 | 25%@3.75 | 24%@3.80 | 79%@1.18 | 63%@1.50 | 59%@1.57 |
Over 1.5 79% @ 1.18 DC 1X 76% @ 1.25 Under 3.5 63% @ 1.50 BTTS Yes 59% @ 1.57 Over 2.5 58% @ 1.62 Home Win 51% @ 1.80 DC X2 49% @ 1.95 Under 2.5 42% @ 2.25 BTTS No 41% @ 2.25 Over 3.5 38% @ 2.50 Draw 25% @ 3.75 Away Win 24% @ 3.80 Under 1.5 21% @ 4.50 | |||||||
| New England Revolution vs New York Red Bulls ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Wed 28 Oct · 23:30 | Market | 50%@1.85 | 23%@4.00 | 27%@3.50 | 86%@1.10 | 51%@1.80 | 66%@1.40 |
Over 1.5 86% @ 1.10 DC 1X 73% @ 1.22 Over 2.5 67% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 66% @ 1.40 Under 3.5 51% @ 1.80 Home Win 50% @ 1.85 DC X2 50% @ 2.10 Over 3.5 49% @ 1.91 BTTS No 34% @ 2.75 Under 2.5 33% @ 2.88 Away Win 27% @ 3.50 Draw 23% @ 4.00 Under 1.5 14% @ 7.00 | |||||||
| Charlotte vs CF Montreal ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Wed 28 Oct · 23:30 | Market | 62%@1.50 | 21%@4.33 | 17%@5.50 | 83%@1.14 | 56%@1.67 | 59%@1.57 |
DC 1X 83% @ 1.14 Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 Over 2.5 64% @ 1.48 Home Win 62% @ 1.50 BTTS Yes 59% @ 1.57 Under 3.5 56% @ 1.67 Over 3.5 44% @ 2.10 BTTS No 41% @ 2.25 DC X2 38% @ 2.50 Under 2.5 36% @ 2.60 Draw 21% @ 4.33 Away Win 17% @ 5.50 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| Toronto FC vs DC United ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Wed 28 Oct · 23:30 | Market | 47%@2.00 | 25%@3.70 | 28%@3.30 | 81%@1.17 | 59%@1.57 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 81% @ 1.17 DC 1X 72% @ 1.33 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Over 2.5 61% @ 1.53 Under 3.5 59% @ 1.57 DC X2 53% @ 1.80 Home Win 47% @ 2.00 Over 3.5 41% @ 2.25 Under 2.5 39% @ 2.40 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Away Win 28% @ 3.30 Draw 25% @ 3.70 Under 1.5 19% @ 5.00 | |||||||
| Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 48%@1.95 | 24%@3.80 | 28%@3.30 | 83%@1.14 | 58%@1.62 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 Over 2.5 63% @ 1.50 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Under 3.5 58% @ 1.62 Home Win 48% @ 1.95 Over 3.5 42% @ 2.20 Under 2.5 38% @ 2.50 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Away Win 28% @ 3.30 Draw 24% @ 3.80 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 49%@1.90 | 25%@3.70 | 26%@3.60 | 83%@1.14 | 59%@1.57 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Over 2.5 61% @ 1.53 Under 3.5 59% @ 1.57 Home Win 49% @ 1.90 Over 3.5 41% @ 2.25 Under 2.5 39% @ 2.40 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Away Win 26% @ 3.60 Draw 25% @ 3.70 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
| Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 56%@1.67 | 22%@4.33 | 23%@4.10 | 88%@1.08 | 46%@2.00 | 69%@1.36 |
Over 1.5 88% @ 1.08 DC 1X 77% @ 1.22 Over 2.5 73% @ 1.30 BTTS Yes 69% @ 1.36 Home Win 56% @ 1.67 Over 3.5 54% @ 1.73 Under 3.5 46% @ 2.00 DC X2 44% @ 2.15 BTTS No 31% @ 3.00 Under 2.5 27% @ 3.50 Away Win 23% @ 4.10 Draw 22% @ 4.33 Under 1.5 12% @ 8.00 | |||||||
| Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 68%@1.40 | 19%@5.00 | 14%@7.00 | 86%@1.10 | 50%@1.83 | 61%@1.53 |
DC 1X 86% @ 1.10 Over 1.5 86% @ 1.10 Over 2.5 70% @ 1.36 Home Win 68% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 61% @ 1.53 Over 3.5 50% @ 1.83 Under 3.5 50% @ 1.83 BTTS No 39% @ 2.38 DC X2 32% @ 2.75 Under 2.5 30% @ 3.10 Draw 19% @ 5.00 Away Win 14% @ 7.00 Under 1.5 14% @ 7.00 | |||||||
| Austin vs Real Salt Lake ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 37%@2.50 | 27%@3.50 | 36%@2.60 | 81%@1.17 | 59%@1.57 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 81% @ 1.17 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Over 2.5 60% @ 1.57 Under 3.5 59% @ 1.57 Over 3.5 41% @ 2.25 Under 2.5 40% @ 2.35 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Home Win 37% @ 2.50 Away Win 36% @ 2.60 Draw 27% @ 3.50 Under 1.5 19% @ 5.00 | |||||||
| St. Louis City vs Portland Timbers ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 00:30 | Market | 58%@1.62 | 21%@4.50 | 22%@4.33 | 86%@1.10 | 50%@1.83 | 65%@1.44 |
Over 1.5 86% @ 1.10 DC 1X 78% @ 1.20 Over 2.5 70% @ 1.36 BTTS Yes 65% @ 1.44 Home Win 58% @ 1.62 Over 3.5 50% @ 1.83 Under 3.5 50% @ 1.83 DC X2 42% @ 2.25 BTTS No 35% @ 2.62 Under 2.5 30% @ 3.10 Away Win 22% @ 4.33 Draw 21% @ 4.50 Under 1.5 14% @ 7.00 | |||||||
| Vancouver Whitecaps vs San Diego ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 02:30 | Market | 67%@1.40 | 18%@5.25 | 15%@6.25 | 88%@1.08 | 49%@1.91 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 88% @ 1.08 Over 2.5 73% @ 1.30 Home Win 67% @ 1.40 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Over 3.5 51% @ 1.80 Under 3.5 49% @ 1.91 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Under 2.5 27% @ 3.50 Draw 18% @ 5.25 Away Win 15% @ 6.25 Under 1.5 12% @ 8.00 | |||||||
| Seattle Sounders vs Houston Dynamo ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 02:30 | Market | 50%@1.85 | 25%@3.70 | 25%@3.80 | 78%@1.20 | 65%@1.44 | 58%@1.62 |
Over 1.5 78% @ 1.20 DC 1X 75% @ 1.25 Under 3.5 65% @ 1.44 BTTS Yes 58% @ 1.62 Over 2.5 56% @ 1.67 Home Win 50% @ 1.85 DC X2 50% @ 1.91 Under 2.5 44% @ 2.15 BTTS No 42% @ 2.20 Over 3.5 35% @ 2.62 Draw 25% @ 3.70 Away Win 25% @ 3.80 Under 1.5 22% @ 4.33 | |||||||
| San Jose Earthquakes vs Colorado Rapids ▼ USA, Major League Soccer Thu 29 Oct · 02:30 | Market | 48%@1.95 | 25%@3.75 | 27%@3.40 | 83%@1.14 | 58%@1.62 | 63%@1.50 |
Over 1.5 83% @ 1.14 DC 1X 73% @ 1.30 BTTS Yes 63% @ 1.50 Over 2.5 61% @ 1.53 Under 3.5 58% @ 1.62 DC X2 52% @ 1.80 Home Win 48% @ 1.95 Over 3.5 42% @ 2.20 Under 2.5 39% @ 2.40 BTTS No 38% @ 2.50 Away Win 27% @ 3.40 Draw 25% @ 3.75 Under 1.5 17% @ 5.50 | |||||||
Recent Major League Soccer results
About MLS
MLS has 30 clubs from the United States and Canada in two conferences. A regular season of 34 matches per club is followed by play-offs.
We track every match in MLS in our own database: 1,346 matches since February 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.
📈 Live competition numbers
Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.
Based on 362 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.
Key facts: MLS in numbers
Every settled match in our database, 1,346 from February 2023 to October 2026:
By period:
| Period | Matches | Goals | Home wins | Over 2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 2023 | 279 | 2.61 | 48.7% | 53.4% | 54.1% |
| Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 | 530 | 3.02 | 45.7% | 59.2% | 61.1% |
| Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 | 219 | 3.24 | 49.3% | 63.9% | 61.6% |
| Since Jul 2025 | 318 | 3.37 | 44.0% | 65.7% | 67.6% |
Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.
How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.
The market against reality
At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 45.3% of 170 matches in MLS, against 51.9% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 3.9%. Favourites here came in less often than their price suggested.
Our model picked the right result in 38.4% of 318 live matches in MLS since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 38.7% on 315 matches.
The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.
Our record in MLS
Our published tips in MLS since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 39 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.
| Tips | Settled | Won | Avg. odds | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main tips | 28 | 72.3% | 1.38 | −1.1% |
| Extra tips | 11 | 9.1% | 2.15 | −75.5% |
| All tips | 39 | 52.2% | 1.60 | −22.0% |
Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.
How our analysis works
We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.
Standings
Western Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 32 | +31 | 55 | LWDDL |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 54 | WDWLW |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 44 | +12 | 51 | LLDWW |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52 | 45 | +7 | 48 | LDDDW |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 48 | DDDDL |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 32 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 47 | DDWDL |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 31 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 41 | 39 | +2 | 43 | DDLWW |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 42 | WDDDL |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 41 | DDWLW |
| 10 | Real Salt Lake | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 48 | 48 | +0 | 39 | WWDLW |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 37 | WDLDL |
| 12 | San Diego | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 55 | 58 | -3 | 35 | DDDLD |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 35 | DWDDL |
| 14 | Austin | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 34 | WLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 31 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 77 | -40 | 22 | LLLDL |
Eastern Conference
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 31 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 66 | 23 | +43 | 70 | WDWWW |
| 2 | New England Revolution | 31 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 51 | 42 | +9 | 55 | WWWLL |
| 3 | Inter Miami | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 73 | 53 | +20 | 55 | LWWWL |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 46 | +9 | 51 | WLLWW |
| 5 | Charlotte | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 47 | LDLWL |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 62 | 50 | +12 | 46 | LDWWW |
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 42 | DWDWL |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 64 | 71 | -7 | 42 | WWLLW |
| 9 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 39 | WLLWL |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 31 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 38 | WWWLW |
| 11 | Toronto FC | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 36 | LWDWL |
| 12 | New York City FC | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 43 | +2 | 35 | DDLLD |
| 13 | DC United | 31 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 33 | LLLWL |
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 30 | LLWLD |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 62 | -26 | 25 | LDLLW |
Top scorers
| # | Player | Goals | Team | Assists | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M | L. Messi | 25 | ![]() | 12 |
| 2 | M | P. Musa | 22 | ![]() | 5 |
| 3 | I | M. Iloski | 19 | ![]() | 2 |
| 4 | B | D. Bouanga | 18 | ![]() | 5 |
| 5 | S | S. Surridge | 18 | ![]() | 1 |
| 6 | N | Rafael Navarro | 18 | ![]() | 6 |
| 7 | W | B. White | 17 | ![]() | 2 |
| 8 | Y | K. Yeboah | 17 | ![]() | 3 |
| 9 | D | K. Denkey | 17 | ![]() | 3 |
| 10 | M | H. Mukhtar | 16 | ![]() | 7 |
Top assists
| # | Player | Assists | Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | M | L. Messi | 12 | ![]() |
| 2 | D | A. Dreyer | 12 | ![]() |
| 3 | H | Son Heung-Min | 12 | ![]() |
| 4 | E | C. Espinoza | 12 | ![]() |
| 5 | R | A. Rusnák | 11 | ![]() |
| 6 | P | J. Pereyra | 11 | ![]() |
| 7 | E | Evander | 10 | ![]() |
| 8 | O | A. Ojeda | 10 | ![]() |
| 9 | R | M. Reus | 9 | ![]() |
| 10 | P | R. De Paul | 9 | ![]() |
Frequently asked questions
How many goals are scored in MLS?
In our database MLS averages 3.05 goals per match over 1,346 matches since February 2023. 60.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 61.3% both teams scored.
How often does the home team win in MLS?
Home sides won 46.5% of 1,346 matches in our database, draws were 26.1% and away wins 27.4%.
How accurate are your predictions in MLS?
Our model picked the right result in 38.4% of 318 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 39 settled, with a return of −22.0%.
Are your tips in MLS free?
Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.
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