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Major League Soccer

Major League Soccer Betting Tips

Free Major League Soccer match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 1,346 matches from our own database.

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Most likely picks this week (accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
23:30		AH Chicago Fire +172.9%@ 1.31
Orlando City SC vs DC United
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
23:30		AH Orlando City SC +072.7%@ 1.31
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
23:30		Over 2.572.5%@ 1.30
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
18:30		Over 2.571.9%@ 1.33
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
23:30		AH New York Red Bulls +0.571.9%@ 1.33
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
USA, Major League Soccer
Sat 17 Oct
23:30		AH Los Angeles FC +0.7571.3%@ 1.34

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Market probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
18:30		Market63%@1.5019%@5.0018%@5.2588%@1.0849%@1.9165%@1.44
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Philadelphia Union +0.75
86%
@ 1.10
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Philadelphia Union +0.5
82%
@ 1.16
Philadelphia Union +0.25
79%
@ 1.19
Philadelphia Union 0.0
78%
@ 1.23
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
Charlotte +2
70%
@ 1.36
Philadelphia Union -0.25
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Philadelphia Union -0.5
64%
@ 1.50
Home Win
63%
@ 1.50
Charlotte +1.75
63%
@ 1.51
Philadelphia Union -0.75
59%
@ 1.61
Charlotte +1.5
57%
@ 1.66
Philadelphia Union -1.0
54%
@ 1.77
Charlotte +1.25
53%
@ 1.82
Over 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
Philadelphia Union -1.25
47%
@ 2.03
Charlotte +1
46%
@ 2.08
Philadelphia Union -1.5
43%
@ 2.25
Charlotte +0.75
41%
@ 2.34
DC X2
37%
@ 2.50
Philadelphia Union -1.75
37%
@ 2.58
Charlotte +0.5
36%
@ 2.63
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Philadelphia Union -2.0
30%
@ 3.19
Charlotte +0.25
30%
@ 3.17
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
Charlotte 0
22%
@ 4.24
Charlotte -0.25
21%
@ 4.50
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
Charlotte -0.5
18%
@ 5.25
Charlotte -0.75
14%
@ 6.80
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
20:30		Market38%@2.5025%@3.7537%@2.6084%@1.1256%@1.6765%@1.44
Minnesota United FC +1.75
86%
@ 1.11
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
St. Louis City +1.75
83%
@ 1.14
Minnesota United FC +1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Minnesota United FC +1.25
79%
@ 1.19
St. Louis City +1.5
78%
@ 1.21
Minnesota United FC +1.0
77%
@ 1.24
St. Louis City +1.25
75%
@ 1.26
St. Louis City +1
74%
@ 1.28
Minnesota United FC +0.75
69%
@ 1.38
St. Louis City +0.75
67%
@ 1.42
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
Minnesota United FC +0.5
64%
@ 1.50
DC 1X
63%
@ 1.50
DC X2
62%
@ 1.50
St. Louis City +0.5
61%
@ 1.58
Minnesota United FC +0.25
59%
@ 1.63
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
St. Louis City +0.25
55%
@ 1.72
Minnesota United FC 0.0
51%
@ 1.90
St. Louis City 0
49%
@ 1.95
Minnesota United FC -0.25
45%
@ 2.15
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
St. Louis City -0.25
41%
@ 2.31
Minnesota United FC -0.5
39%
@ 2.43
Home Win
38%
@ 2.50
Away Win
37%
@ 2.60
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
St. Louis City -0.5
36%
@ 2.63
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Minnesota United FC -0.75
33%
@ 2.86
St. Louis City -0.75
31%
@ 3.09
Minnesota United FC -1.0
26%
@ 3.71
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Minnesota United FC -1.25
25%
@ 3.84
St. Louis City -1
23%
@ 4.12
Minnesota United FC -1.5
22%
@ 4.25
St. Louis City -1.25
21%
@ 4.50
St. Louis City -1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Minnesota United FC -1.75
17%
@ 5.75
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
St. Louis City -1.75
14%
@ 6.60
Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:30		Market28%@3.4023%@4.1049%@1.9188%@1.0846%@2.0071%@1.33
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Inter Miami +1.5
85%
@ 1.12
Inter Miami +1.25
84%
@ 1.12
Inter Miami +1
83%
@ 1.14
Atlanta United FC +2.0
81%
@ 1.17
Inter Miami +0.75
77%
@ 1.23
Atlanta United FC +1.75
75%
@ 1.26
Over 2.5
73%
@ 1.30
DC X2
72%
@ 1.30
Inter Miami +0.5
72%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
71%
@ 1.33
Atlanta United FC +1.5
69%
@ 1.38
Inter Miami +0.25
68%
@ 1.40
Atlanta United FC +1.25
66%
@ 1.43
Inter Miami 0
63%
@ 1.51
Atlanta United FC +1.0
62%
@ 1.53
Inter Miami -0.25
56%
@ 1.71
Atlanta United FC +0.75
55%
@ 1.72
Over 3.5
54%
@ 1.73
DC 1X
51%
@ 1.83
Atlanta United FC +0.5
50%
@ 1.92
Inter Miami -0.5
50%
@ 1.93
Away Win
49%
@ 1.91
Under 3.5
46%
@ 2.00
Inter Miami -0.75
45%
@ 2.14
Atlanta United FC +0.25
44%
@ 2.17
Inter Miami -1
38%
@ 2.50
Atlanta United FC 0.0
37%
@ 2.61
Inter Miami -1.25
34%
@ 2.81
Atlanta United FC -0.25
32%
@ 2.98
Inter Miami -1.5
31%
@ 3.09
BTTS No
29%
@ 3.25
Home Win
28%
@ 3.40
Atlanta United FC -0.5
28%
@ 3.37
Under 2.5
27%
@ 3.50
Inter Miami -1.75
25%
@ 3.70
Draw
23%
@ 4.10
Atlanta United FC -0.75
23%
@ 4.10
Inter Miami -2
19%
@ 5.00
Atlanta United FC -1.0
17%
@ 5.75
Atlanta United FC -1.25
16%
@ 6.00
Atlanta United FC -1.5
15%
@ 6.40
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:30		Market35%@2.7527%@3.5038%@2.5078%@1.2065%@1.4459%@1.57
Los Angeles FC +1.75
86%
@ 1.10
New York City FC +1.75
85%
@ 1.12
Los Angeles FC +1.5
83%
@ 1.15
Los Angeles FC +1.25
81%
@ 1.17
New York City FC +1.5
80%
@ 1.18
Los Angeles FC +1
79%
@ 1.21
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.20
New York City FC +1.25
78%
@ 1.21
New York City FC +1.0
76%
@ 1.25
Los Angeles FC +0.75
71%
@ 1.34
New York City FC +0.75
68%
@ 1.40
DC X2
65%
@ 1.40
Under 3.5
65%
@ 1.44
Los Angeles FC +0.5
65%
@ 1.48
DC 1X
62%
@ 1.50
New York City FC +0.5
62%
@ 1.54
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
Los Angeles FC +0.25
59%
@ 1.61
New York City FC +0.25
56%
@ 1.71
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.70
Los Angeles FC 0
52%
@ 1.84
New York City FC 0.0
48%
@ 2.01
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Los Angeles FC -0.25
44%
@ 2.16
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
New York City FC -0.25
41%
@ 2.36
Away Win
38%
@ 2.50
Los Angeles FC -0.5
38%
@ 2.49
Home Win
35%
@ 2.75
Over 3.5
35%
@ 2.62
New York City FC -0.5
35%
@ 2.70
Los Angeles FC -0.75
32%
@ 2.97
New York City FC -0.75
29%
@ 3.32
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Los Angeles FC -1
24%
@ 3.98
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Los Angeles FC -1.25
22%
@ 4.25
New York City FC -1.0
21%
@ 4.52
Los Angeles FC -1.5
20%
@ 4.65
New York City FC -1.25
19%
@ 5.00
New York City FC -1.5
17%
@ 5.50
Los Angeles FC -1.75
15%
@ 6.25
New York City FC -1.75
14%
@ 7.00
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:30		Market47%@2.0024%@4.0029%@3.2585%@1.1154%@1.7366%@1.40
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
New York Red Bulls +1.5
85%
@ 1.12
New York Red Bulls +1.25
84%
@ 1.12
Toronto FC +2
83%
@ 1.14
New York Red Bulls +1.0
83%
@ 1.14
Toronto FC +1.75
76%
@ 1.23
New York Red Bulls +0.75
76%
@ 1.23
New York Red Bulls +0.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC 1X
71%
@ 1.33
Toronto FC +1.5
71%
@ 1.34
Toronto FC +1.25
68%
@ 1.40
New York Red Bulls +0.25
68%
@ 1.40
Over 2.5
67%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
Toronto FC +1
64%
@ 1.49
New York Red Bulls 0.0
64%
@ 1.50
Toronto FC +0.75
56%
@ 1.69
New York Red Bulls -0.25
56%
@ 1.72
Under 3.5
54%
@ 1.73
DC X2
53%
@ 1.80
Toronto FC +0.5
51%
@ 1.88
New York Red Bulls -0.5
49%
@ 1.96
Home Win
47%
@ 2.00
Over 3.5
46%
@ 2.00
New York Red Bulls -0.75
44%
@ 2.20
Toronto FC +0.25
44%
@ 2.15
New York Red Bulls -1.0
36%
@ 2.66
Toronto FC 0
36%
@ 2.61
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
Under 2.5
33%
@ 2.88
New York Red Bulls -1.25
32%
@ 2.99
Toronto FC -0.25
32%
@ 2.98
Away Win
29%
@ 3.25
New York Red Bulls -1.5
29%
@ 3.31
Toronto FC -0.5
28%
@ 3.39
Draw
24%
@ 4.00
New York Red Bulls -1.75
24%
@ 4.00
Toronto FC -0.75
24%
@ 4.00
New York Red Bulls -2.0
17%
@ 5.75
Toronto FC -1
17%
@ 5.75
Toronto FC -1.25
16%
@ 6.00
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
Toronto FC -1.5
15%
@ 6.40
Orlando City SC vs DC United ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:30		Market57%@1.6722%@4.2021%@4.5088%@1.0849%@1.9166%@1.40
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Orlando City SC +1.0
86%
@ 1.10
Orlando City SC +1.25
86%
@ 1.11
Orlando City SC +1.5
86%
@ 1.10
Orlando City SC +0.75
83%
@ 1.15
DC 1X
79%
@ 1.18
Orlando City SC +0.5
78%
@ 1.21
DC United +2
75%
@ 1.26
Orlando City SC +0.25
75%
@ 1.26
Orlando City SC 0.0
73%
@ 1.31
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC United +1.75
69%
@ 1.39
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
Orlando City SC -0.25
64%
@ 1.49
DC United +1.5
63%
@ 1.51
DC United +1.25
59%
@ 1.62
Home Win
57%
@ 1.67
Orlando City SC -0.5
57%
@ 1.67
DC United +1
54%
@ 1.78
Orlando City SC -0.75
53%
@ 1.83
Over 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
DC United +0.75
47%
@ 2.03
Orlando City SC -1.0
46%
@ 2.07
DC X2
43%
@ 2.15
DC United +0.5
43%
@ 2.24
Orlando City SC -1.25
41%
@ 2.33
Orlando City SC -1.5
37%
@ 2.56
DC United +0.25
36%
@ 2.65
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
Orlando City SC -1.75
31%
@ 3.07
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
DC United 0
27%
@ 3.48
Orlando City SC -2.0
25%
@ 3.70
DC United -0.25
25%
@ 3.88
Draw
22%
@ 4.20
DC United -0.5
22%
@ 4.25
Away Win
21%
@ 4.50
DC United -0.75
17%
@ 5.50
DC United -1
14%
@ 7.00
DC United -1.25
14%
@ 6.60
DC United -1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:30		Market40%@2.3825%@3.8035%@2.7084%@1.1256%@1.6766%@1.40
New England Revolution +1.75
85%
@ 1.12
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
Chicago Fire +1.75
83%
@ 1.15
New England Revolution +1.5
81%
@ 1.17
New England Revolution +1.25
79%
@ 1.19
Chicago Fire +1.5
78%
@ 1.21
New England Revolution +1.0
78%
@ 1.22
Chicago Fire +1.25
76%
@ 1.26
Chicago Fire +1
73%
@ 1.31
New England Revolution +0.75
70%
@ 1.35
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
Chicago Fire +0.75
66%
@ 1.45
DC 1X
65%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
65%
@ 1.44
New England Revolution +0.5
64%
@ 1.48
DC X2
60%
@ 1.53
Chicago Fire +0.5
60%
@ 1.61
New England Revolution +0.25
60%
@ 1.59
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
Chicago Fire +0.25
54%
@ 1.78
New England Revolution 0.0
54%
@ 1.79
New England Revolution -0.25
46%
@ 2.08
Chicago Fire 0
46%
@ 2.06
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
Home Win
40%
@ 2.38
New England Revolution -0.5
40%
@ 2.37
Chicago Fire -0.25
40%
@ 2.39
Chicago Fire -0.5
36%
@ 2.68
Away Win
35%
@ 2.70
Under 2.5
35%
@ 2.70
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
New England Revolution -0.75
34%
@ 2.78
Chicago Fire -0.75
30%
@ 3.22
New England Revolution -1.0
27%
@ 3.52
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
New England Revolution -1.25
24%
@ 3.90
New England Revolution -1.5
22%
@ 4.25
Chicago Fire -1
22%
@ 4.26
Chicago Fire -1.25
21%
@ 4.50
Chicago Fire -1.5
19%
@ 5.00
New England Revolution -1.75
17%
@ 5.50
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Chicago Fire -1.75
15%
@ 6.40
Austin vs Vancouver Whitecaps ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
00:30		Market20%@4.7521%@4.5059%@1.6283%@1.1458%@1.6261%@1.53
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
DC X2
80%
@ 1.18
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Away Win
59%
@ 1.62
Under 3.5
58%
@ 1.62
Over 3.5
42%
@ 2.20
DC 1X
41%
@ 2.25
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
Draw
21%
@ 4.50
Home Win
20%
@ 4.75
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
00:30		Market42%@2.2527%@3.5031%@3.1077%@1.2266%@1.4058%@1.62
Over 1.5
77%
@ 1.22
DC 1X
69%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.40
DC X2
58%
@ 1.62
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Over 2.5
54%
@ 1.75
Under 2.5
46%
@ 2.05
Home Win
42%
@ 2.25
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Away Win
31%
@ 3.10
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
23%
@ 4.00
Sporting Kansas City vs Real Salt Lake ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
00:30		Market33%@2.8825%@3.8042%@2.2584%@1.1256%@1.6766%@1.40
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
DC X2
67%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
66%
@ 1.40
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
DC 1X
58%
@ 1.62
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
Away Win
42%
@ 2.25
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
BTTS No
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
33%
@ 2.88
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Diego ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
02:30		Market44%@2.1525%@3.8031%@3.1088%@1.0850%@1.8369%@1.36
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
69%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
69%
@ 1.36
DC X2
56%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Home Win
44%
@ 2.15
Away Win
31%
@ 3.10
BTTS No
31%
@ 3.00
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
Seattle Sounders vs CF Montreal ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
02:30		Market67%@1.4219%@5.0015%@6.5084%@1.1256%@1.6758%@1.62
DC 1X
85%
@ 1.12
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
Home Win
67%
@ 1.42
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
DC X2
33%
@ 2.62
Draw
19%
@ 5.00
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Away Win
15%
@ 6.50
San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
02:30		Market26%@3.6024%@3.9049%@1.9183%@1.1459%@1.5763%@1.50
Over 1.5
83%
@ 1.14
DC X2
74%
@ 1.28
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Over 2.5
61%
@ 1.53
Under 3.5
59%
@ 1.57
DC 1X
51%
@ 1.83
Away Win
49%
@ 1.91
Over 3.5
41%
@ 2.25
Under 2.5
39%
@ 2.40
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
Home Win
26%
@ 3.60
Draw
24%
@ 3.90
Under 1.5
17%
@ 5.50
Portland Timbers vs Colorado Rapids ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
02:30		Market45%@2.1026%@3.7029%@3.2581%@1.1761%@1.5363%@1.50
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC 1X
71%
@ 1.33
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Under 3.5
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
DC X2
55%
@ 1.70
Home Win
45%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.35
Over 3.5
39%
@ 2.38
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
Away Win
29%
@ 3.25
Draw
26%
@ 3.70
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew ▼
USA, Major League Soccer
23:00		Market40%@2.4024%@3.9036%@2.6286%@1.1050%@1.8371%@1.33
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
BTTS Yes
71%
@ 1.33
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
64%
@ 1.44
DC X2
60%
@ 1.53
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Home Win
40%
@ 2.40
Away Win
36%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
BTTS No
29%
@ 3.25
Draw
24%
@ 3.90
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About MLS

MLS has 30 clubs from the United States and Canada in two conferences. A regular season of 34 matches per club is followed by play-offs.

We track every match in MLS in our own database: 1,346 matches since February 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

3.37
goals per match on average
65.8%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
67.3%
of matches see both teams score
44.1%
home wins

Based on 333 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: MLS in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 1,346 from February 2023 to October 2026:

⚽
3.05 goals per match
60.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 36.1% over 3.5. Above the average of 55.5% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
46.5% home wins
Draws 26.1%, away wins 27.4%. Home sides scored 1.76 goals per match, away sides 1.29. Above the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
61.3% both teams scored
6.3% of matches ended 0-0. The highest of the 16 competitions we cover.
📊
1-1 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (7.6%), 1-0 (7.1%), 2-2 (6.8%).
🥅
80.7% over 1.5 goals
In 19.3% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
26.1% draws
How often matches ended level. Above the average of 24.1% across the 16 competitions we cover.

By period:

Period Matches Goals Home wins Over 2.5 BTTS
Before Jul 2023 279 2.61 48.7% 53.4% 54.1%
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 530 3.02 45.7% 59.2% 61.1%
Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 219 3.24 49.3% 63.9% 61.6%
Since Jul 2025 318 3.37 44.0% 65.7% 67.6%

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 45.3% of 170 matches in MLS, against 51.9% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 3.9%. Favourites here came in less often than their price suggested.

Our model picked the right result in 38.4% of 318 live matches in MLS since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 38.7% on 315 matches.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in MLS

Our published tips in MLS since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 39 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 28 72.3% 1.38 −1.1%
Extra tips 11 9.1% 2.15 −75.5%
All tips 39 52.2% 1.60 −22.0%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

74.5% of our main tips won 27 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 14 Oct 2026❌ Loss
FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution
Pick: FC Cincinnati Asian Handicap -0.5 @ 1.84
💡 Market consensus puts this at 52.0% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.84 imply about 54% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 14 Oct 2026✅ Win
DC United vs New York Red Bulls
Pick: DC United Asian Handicap +0.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.0% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 14 Oct 2026✅ Win
CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC
Pick: Atlanta United FC Asian Handicap +1.0 @ 1.31
💡 Market consensus puts this at 72.8% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.31 imply about 76% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

Western Conference

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps2915776130+3152
DDLDW
2St. Louis City St. Louis City2914965438+1651
DWWWW
3FC Dallas FC Dallas2914875345+850
WLWDW
4San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes2913885141+1047
DDWDW
5Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo2913793937+246
DDLDL
6Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC3012994732+1545
WDLDL
7Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders29118103836+241
LWWWW
8Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy30109114150-939
WLWWD
9Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids29115134141+038
DDLDW
10Portland Timbers Portland Timbers2996145156-533
LDLLL
11Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake2996144247-533
DLWLL
12San Diego San Diego2989125154-333
DLDDL
13Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC29710124453-931
DDLLL
14Austin Austin29710123754-1731
LLDDW
15Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City2964193572-3722
LDLWL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Eastern Conference

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Nashville SC Nashville SC2920636322+4166
WWWWD
2Inter Miami Inter Miami29141057050+2052
WWLDD
3New England Revolution New England Revolution29154104841+749
WLLWW
4Chicago Fire Chicago Fire2914695243+948
LWWWL
5Charlotte Charlotte2913795143+846
LWLWD
6Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union29136105946+1345
WWWWW
7Orlando City SC Orlando City SC29115135469-1538
DWLLW
8New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls29106133954-1536
LWLWW
9FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati2899106068-836
LWLDD
10New York City FC New York City FC2989124240+233
LLDLW
11Toronto FC Toronto FC29712104455-1133
DWLLL
12DC United DC United2871293647-1133
WLDLD
13Columbus Crew Columbus Crew2995154447-332
WLWWL
14Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC2986153648-1230
WLDWD
15CF Montreal CF Montreal2966173559-2424
LLWLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
M
L. Messi23
Inter MiamiInter Miami
12
2
M
P. Musa19
FC DallasFC Dallas
5
3
I
M. Iloski18
Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia Union
2
4
B
D. Bouanga17
Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC
5
5
W
B. White17
Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver Whitecaps
2
6
D
K. Denkey17
FC CincinnatiFC Cincinnati
3
7
S
S. Surridge17
Nashville SCNashville SC
1
8
N
Rafael Navarro17
St. Louis CitySt. Louis City
5
9
G
Guilherme16
Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo
7
10
Y
K. Yeboah16
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
2

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
M
L. Messi12
Inter MiamiInter Miami
2
D
A. Dreyer12
San DiegoSan Diego
3
H
Son Heung-Min12
Los Angeles FCLos Angeles FC
4
E
C. Espinoza12
Nashville SCNashville SC
5
R
A. Rusnák11
Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders
6
O
A. Ojeda10
New York City FCNew York City FC
7
P
J. Pereyra10
Minnesota United FCMinnesota United FC
8
R
M. Reus9
Los Angeles GalaxyLos Angeles Galaxy
9
P
R. De Paul9
Inter MiamiInter Miami
10
V
J. Valiente9
FC DallasFC Dallas

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in MLS?

In our database MLS averages 3.05 goals per match over 1,346 matches since February 2023. 60.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 61.3% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in MLS?

Home sides won 46.5% of 1,346 matches in our database, draws were 26.1% and away wins 27.4%.

How accurate are your predictions in MLS?

Our model picked the right result in 38.4% of 318 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 39 settled, with a return of −22.0%.

Are your tips in MLS free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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