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⚽ Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

New York City FC face Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: New York City FC have no wins from their last 5, while Atlanta United FC have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, 5 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.50

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.47 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	8.2%	5.1%	2.1%	0.7%
1	9.7%	12.1%	7.6%	3.2%	1.0%
2	7.1%	8.9%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.5%	4.4%	2.7%	1.1%	0.4%
4	1.3%	1.6%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

New York City FC winDrawAtlanta United FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

New York City FC 40%Draw 32%Atlanta United FC 28%

40%32%28%

40%

New York City FC Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and Atlanta United FC. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: 5 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-26	Atlanta United FC	2 – 2	New York City FC	D
2024-07-17	Atlanta United FC	2 – 2	New York City FC	D
2024-04-06	New York City FC	1 – 1	Atlanta United FC	D
2023-06-21	Atlanta United FC	2 – 2	New York City FC	D
2023-04-08	New York City FC	1 – 1	Atlanta United FC	D

📈 Recent form

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Inter Miami.

DOrlando City SC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
DNew York City FC 1-1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
LInter Miami 2-0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LChicago Fire 2-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
DAtlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Atlanta United FC

Atlanta United FC come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at CF Montreal. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Chicago Fire.

LAtlanta United FC 2-3 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
LAtlanta United FC 1-3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
WCF Montreal 0-3 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
LAtlanta United FC 1-3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
DAtlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York City FC at 40% to win and Atlanta United FC at 28%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC Win	40%	51%	@ 1.80
Draw	32%	25%	@ 3.75
Atlanta United FC Win	28%	24%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.25 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC or Draw	69%	76%	@ 1.25
Atlanta United FC or Draw	58%	49%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	79%	@ 1.18
Under 3.5	71%	62%	@ 1.50
Over 2.5	51%	58%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	49%	42%	@ 2.25
Over 3.5	29%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 1.5	24%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	45%	41%	@ 2.25

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 62%.

Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for New York City FC and 1.25 for Atlanta United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York City FC and Atlanta United FC play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.