⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs DC United Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs DC United in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Toronto FC face DC United in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while DC United have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 1, DC United won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Toronto FC win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs DC United with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs DC United comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Toronto FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (70%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and DC United. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: Toronto FC 1 · 1 drawn · DC United 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | DC United | 2 – 1 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2024-08-31 | Toronto FC | 1 – 3 | DC United | L |
| 2024-06-01 | DC United | 2 – 2 | Toronto FC | D |
| 2023-05-27 | Toronto FC | 2 – 1 | DC United | W |
| 2023-02-26 | DC United | 3 – 2 | Toronto FC | L |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at New York Red Bulls. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at Columbus Crew.
- LColumbus Crew 4-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 3-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- LNashville SC 2-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
DC United come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to New York Red Bulls. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to FC Cincinnati.
- LDC United 0-2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 4-1 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- WDC United 2-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- LInter Miami 4-0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- LDC United 0-1 SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 37% to win and DC United at 34%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Toronto FC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC Win | 37% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| DC United Win | 34% | 28% | @ 3.30 |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toronto FC or Draw at 1.33 (65% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC or Draw | 65% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| DC United or Draw | 62% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 | 51% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 49% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 70% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| BTTS No | 30% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs DC United?
Our model's pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs DC United?
Our model makes a Toronto FC win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline for Toronto FC vs DC United.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs DC United?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Toronto FC and 1.69 for DC United. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and DC United play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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