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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Santos vs Bahia Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Bahia in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Santos face Bahia in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 3 wins from their last 5, while Bahia have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Santos won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Santos win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.8-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Bahia with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Santos or Draw @ 1.28

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.76 – 1.53 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	5.7%	4.4%	2.2%	0.9%
1	6.6%	10.0%	7.7%	3.9%	1.5%
2	5.8%	8.8%	6.8%	3.4%	1.3%
3	3.4%	5.2%	4.0%	2.0%	0.8%
4	1.5%	2.3%	1.7%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Santos winDrawBahia win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santos vs Bahia comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Santos or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Santos win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

📊 Key numbers

Santos 40%Draw 32%Bahia 28%

40%32%28%

40%

Santos Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Santos and Bahia. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Santos 2 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	Bahia	2 – 2	Santos	D
2023-09-18	Bahia	1 – 2	Santos	W
2023-05-10	Santos	3 – 0	Bahia	W

📈 Recent form

Santos

Santos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Fluminense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Atlético Mineiro.

WFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
DSantos 2-2 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A

Bahia

Bahia come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Mirassol. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at home to Flamengo.

LBahia 0-3 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WBahia 1-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 1-0 BahiaBrazilian Série A
LAthletico Paranaense 2-1 BahiaBrazilian Série A
WBahia 2-1 RemoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Santos

Arthur MeloMuscle Injury
G. EscobarNot in squad
Gabriel BrazaoShoulder Injury
Vinicius LiraKnee Injury
Lucas VerissimoInjury

Bahia

R. GomezSuspended (cards)
Jean LucasSuspended (cards)
Leo VieiraKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santos at 40% to win and Bahia at 28%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Santos win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santos Win	40%	48%	@ 1.95
Draw	32%	27%	@ 3.50
Bahia Win	28%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Santos or Draw at 1.28 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santos or Draw	69%	74%	@ 1.28
Bahia or Draw	57%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	78%	@ 1.22
Over 2.5	64%	55%	@ 1.73
Under 3.5	58%	66%	@ 1.44
Over 3.5	42%	34%	@ 2.75
Under 2.5	36%	45%	@ 2.08
Under 1.5	16%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	35%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Santos 48%Draw 26%Bahia 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Bahia?

Our model's pick is Santos or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Santos vs Bahia?

Our model makes a Santos win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.5 scoreline for Santos vs Bahia.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Bahia?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.76 for Santos and 1.53 for Bahia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santos and Bahia play?

Kick-off is Sunday 25 October 2026, 00:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.