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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Coritiba vs Grêmio Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 26 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Coritiba face Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Monday 26 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Coritiba have no wins from their last 5, while Grêmio have no wins from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Grêmio won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Grêmio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

71%Bookmaker odds imply 71%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.49 – 1.40 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	7.8%	5.4%	2.5%	0.9%
1	8.3%	11.6%	8.1%	3.8%	1.3%
2	6.2%	8.6%	6.0%	2.8%	1.0%
3	3.1%	4.3%	3.0%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Coritiba winDrawGrêmio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Grêmio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Coritiba 36%Draw 26%Grêmio 38%

36%26%38%

38%

Grêmio Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Coritiba and Grêmio. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: Grêmio 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-26	Grêmio	1 – 0	Coritiba	L
2023-11-01	Coritiba	1 – 2	Grêmio	L
2023-06-25	Grêmio	5 – 1	Coritiba	L

📈 Recent form

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 14. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Atlético Mineiro.

LAtlético Mineiro 1-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 1-1 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
LFluminense 4-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 2-4 at home to Cruzeiro.

LGrêmio 2-4 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DGrêmio 1-1 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
DRemo 1-1 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Coritiba at 36% to win and Grêmio at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio Win	38%	29%	@ 3.20
Coritiba Win	36%	42%	@ 2.20
Draw	26%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Grêmio or Draw at 1.67 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio or Draw	64%	58%	@ 1.67
Coritiba or Draw	62%	71%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	67%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	55%	50%	@ 1.90
Under 2.5	45%	50%	@ 1.90
Over 3.5	33%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	22%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	41%	45%	@ 2.05

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 71% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Grêmio?

Our model makes a Grêmio win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Coritiba vs Grêmio.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Grêmio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.49 for Coritiba and 1.40 for Grêmio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Coritiba and Grêmio play?

Kick-off is Monday 26 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.