⚽ Brazilian Série A
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 18 October 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Result: São Paulo 1-0 Vasco da Gama
São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama finished 1-0. São Paulo won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
São Paulo face Vasco da Gama in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 18 October 2026, 00:00 UTC. Recent form: São Paulo have 2 wins from their last 5, while Vasco da Gama have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, São Paulo won 2, Vasco da Gama won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.5-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3% | 8.4% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 13.6% | 12.4% | 5.6% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.0% | 9.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is Vasco da Gama with a +1 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a São Paulo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between São Paulo and Vasco da Gama. Wins shown from São Paulo’s perspective: São Paulo 2 · 1 drawn · Vasco da Gama 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | São Paulo | 1 – 0 | Vasco da Gama | W |
| 2026-04-18 | Vasco da Gama | 2 – 1 | São Paulo | L |
| 2024-10-17 | São Paulo | 3 – 0 | Vasco da Gama | W |
| 2024-06-23 | Vasco da Gama | 4 – 1 | São Paulo | L |
| 2023-10-07 | Vasco da Gama | 0 – 0 | São Paulo | D |
📈 Recent form
São Paulo come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Vasco da Gama. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Cruzeiro.
- WSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- WSão Paulo 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
- LCruzeiro 2-0 São PauloBrazilian Série A
- LSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
- WSão Paulo 1-0 InternacionalBrazilian Série A
Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at São Paulo.
- LSão Paulo 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- WBoca Juniors 0-1 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- DVasco da Gama 0-0 RemoBrazilian Série A
- WBotafogo 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
- WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. BosshardtNot in squad
- ButaKnee Injury
- CaulyNot in squad
- DjhordneySuspended (cards)
- D. DuarteKnee Injury
- FerreiraInjury
- Cauan BarrosNot in squad
- C. CuestaNot in squad
- M. HinestrozaNot in squad
- Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury
- N. MoreiraNot in squad
- C. SpinelliNot in squad
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices São Paulo at 41% to win and Vasco da Gama at 28%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo Win | 41% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | @ 3.20 |
| Vasco da Gama Win | 28% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is São Paulo or Draw at 1.28 (70% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo or Draw | 70% | 73% | @ 1.28 |
| Vasco da Gama or Draw | 56% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 78% | 75% | @ 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 | 69% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 54% | @ 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Under 1.5 | 31% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 25% | @ 3.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 54% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| BTTS Yes | 46% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when São Paulo or Vasco da Gama is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo +1.25 | 83% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.75 | 82% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.5 | 79% | 77% | 1.24 |
| São Paulo +1 | 79% | 86% | 1.10 |
| São Paulo +0.75 | 74% | 78% | 1.22 |
| Vasco da Gama +1.25 | 73% | 76% | 1.25 |
| São Paulo +0.5 | 70% | 72% | 1.32 |
| Vasco da Gama +1 | 68% | 73% | 1.31 |
| São Paulo +0.25 | 63% | 67% | 1.42 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.75 | 62% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.5 | 56% | 56% | 1.70 |
| São Paulo 0 | 56% | 61% | 1.56 |
| São Paulo -0.25 | 50% | 51% | 1.90 |
| Vasco da Gama +0.25 | 50% | 49% | 1.99 |
| São Paulo -0.5 | 44% | 44% | 2.18 |
| Vasco da Gama 0 | 44% | 39% | @ 2.44 |
| São Paulo -0.75 | 38% | 37% | 2.58 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.25 | 37% | 33% | @ 2.91 |
| São Paulo -1 | 32% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.5 | 30% | 28% | @ 3.44 |
| São Paulo -1.25 | 27% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| Vasco da Gama -0.75 | 26% | 22% | @ 4.36 |
| Vasco da Gama -1 | 21% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| São Paulo -1.5 | 21% | 23% | 4.17 |
| São Paulo -1.75 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| Vasco da Gama -1.25 | 17% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?
Our pick is Vasco da Gama with a +1 start at odds 1.31, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.
Who is the favourite for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?
Our model makes a São Paulo win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.5-0.9 scoreline for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama.
What is the predicted score for São Paulo vs Vasco da Gama?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.47 for São Paulo and 0.91 for Vasco da Gama. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do São Paulo and Vasco da Gama play?
Kick-off is Sunday 18 October 2026, 00:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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