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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Santos vs Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Santos face Palmeiras in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Wednesday 28 October 2026, 22:30 UTC. Recent form: Santos have 3 wins from their last 5, while Palmeiras have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Santos won 1, Palmeiras won 1, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Santos vs Palmeiras with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.33

72%Bookmaker odds imply 72%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.06 – 1.60 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	11.2%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
1	7.4%	11.9%	9.5%	5.1%	2.0%
2	3.9%	6.3%	5.0%	2.7%	1.1%
3	1.4%	2.2%	1.8%	0.9%	0.4%
4	0.4%	0.6%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Santos winDrawPalmeiras win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Palmeiras win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean under 2.5 (50%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Santos 21%Draw 30%Palmeiras 49%

21%30%49%

49%

Palmeiras Win

50%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Santos and Palmeiras. Wins shown from Santos’s perspective: Santos 1 · 3 drawn · Palmeiras 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-03	Santos	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D
2026-08-27	Palmeiras	3 – 0	Santos	L
2026-05-02	Palmeiras	1 – 1	Santos	D
2023-10-08	Palmeiras	1 – 2	Santos	W
2023-05-21	Santos	0 – 0	Palmeiras	D

📈 Recent form

Santos

Santos come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Fluminense. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Atlético Mineiro.

WFluminense 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 SantosBrazilian Série A
DSantos 2-2 FlamengoBrazilian Série A
WSão Paulo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A

Palmeiras

Palmeiras come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Corinthians. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Fluminense.

WPalmeiras 2-0 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
LPalmeiras 0-1 FluminenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
WAthletico Paranaense 0-2 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 4-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
WPalmeiras 1-0 BahiaBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Santos at 21% to win and Palmeiras at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras Win	49%	40%	@ 2.35
Draw	30%	29%	@ 3.25
Santos Win	21%	31%	@ 3.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.36 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Palmeiras or Draw	76%	69%	@ 1.36
Santos or Draw	48%	60%	@ 1.57

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 50% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 3.5	72%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	50%	54%	@ 1.75
Over 2.5	50%	46%	@ 2.05
Over 3.5	28%	25%	@ 3.75
Under 1.5	26%	28%	@ 3.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	47%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 How the market moved

Santos 33%Draw 29%Palmeiras 38%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Santos vs Palmeiras?

Our pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33, with a 72% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Santos vs Palmeiras?

Our model makes a Palmeiras win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Santos vs Palmeiras.

What is the predicted score for Santos vs Palmeiras?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.06 for Santos and 1.60 for Palmeiras. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Santos and Palmeiras play?

Kick-off is Wednesday 28 October 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.