⚽ Major League Soccer
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes finished 1-0. Los Angeles Galaxy won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Los Angeles Galaxy face San Jose Earthquakes in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Los Angeles Galaxy won 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely result at 58%, projecting a 2.2-1.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Los Angeles Galaxy with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 83% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 58%. Goals lean over 2.5 (78%), both teams to score points yes (75%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes. Wins shown from Los Angeles Galaxy’s perspective: Los Angeles Galaxy 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 1 – 0 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2024-06-30 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
| 2024-04-22 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 4 – 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2024-03-03 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
| 2023-08-31 | San Jose Earthquakes | 2 – 3 | Los Angeles Galaxy | W |
📈 Recent form
Los Angeles Galaxy come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Minnesota United FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Vancouver Whitecaps.
- WMinnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- DLos Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- LVancouver Whitecaps 3-0 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
- WLos Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- LSan Diego 3-1 Los Angeles GalaxyMajor League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Houston Dynamo.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. GarcesSuspended (red card)
- Joao KlaussFoot Injury
- R. PuigKnee Injury
- E. WynderInjury
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. RobertsSuspended (cards)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Los Angeles Galaxy at 58% to win and San Jose Earthquakes at 23%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy Win | 58% | 43% | @ 2.18 |
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 23% | 33% | @ 2.85 |
| Draw | 18% | 25% | @ 3.80 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw at 1.40 (79% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy or Draw | 79% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 44% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 78% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 85% | @ 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 | 78% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 47% | @ 2.02 |
| Under 3.5 | 40% | 53% | @ 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Under 1.5 | 8% | 15% | @ 6.25 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 75%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 75% | 68% | @ 1.36 |
| BTTS No | 25% | 32% | @ 2.88 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Los Angeles Galaxy or San Jose Earthquakes is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy +1.75 | 94% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +1.5 | 93% | – | @ 1.15 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +1.25 | 90% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +1 | 86% | – | @ 1.20 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +0.75 | 83% | 74% | @ 1.29 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +0.5 | 79% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +2 | 77% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy +0.25 | 73% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.75 | 73% | 79% | 1.19 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 69% | 74% | 1.25 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy 0 | 68% | 57% | @ 1.67 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 63% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -0.25 | 62% | 51% | @ 1.89 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 56% | 69% | 1.39 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -0.5 | 56% | 44% | @ 2.14 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 50% | 61% | 1.56 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -0.75 | 50% | 39% | @ 2.45 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 44% | 56% | 1.68 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -1 | 44% | 31% | @ 3.06 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 38% | 49% | 1.96 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -1.25 | 37% | 28% | @ 3.39 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 32% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -1.5 | 31% | 26% | @ 3.55 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -1.75 | 27% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 27% | 36% | 2.67 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy -2 | 23% | 15% | @ 6.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 21% | 33% | 2.88 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 17% | 26% | 3.62 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 10% | 17% | 5.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.75 | 6% | 14% | 7.00 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model's main pick is Los Angeles Galaxy with a +0.75 start at odds 1.29, with a 83% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
Our model makes a Los Angeles Galaxy win the most likely result at 58%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.9 scoreline for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes.
What is the predicted score for Los Angeles Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.25 for Los Angeles Galaxy and 1.90 for San Jose Earthquakes. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Los Angeles Galaxy and San Jose Earthquakes play?
Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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