⚽ La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves in the La Liga. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Rayo Vallecano face Alaves in the La Liga, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 4, Alaves won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.53

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	9.5%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
1	12.4%	12.9%	6.7%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.3%	8.7%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.8%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Rayo Vallecano winDrawAlaves win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.53, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

Best value

Over 1.5 at odds 1.53, 69% model probability, +5.5% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Rayo Vallecano 46%Draw 28%Alaves 26%

46%28%26%

46%

Rayo Vallecano Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

+5.5%

Best value: Over 1.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves. Wins shown from Rayo Vallecano’s perspective: Rayo Vallecano 4 · Alaves 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-23	Alaves	1 – 2	Rayo Vallecano	W
2025-10-26	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 0	Alaves	W
2025-03-29	Alaves	0 – 2	Rayo Vallecano	W
2024-10-26	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 0	Alaves	W
2024-03-10	Alaves	1 – 0	Rayo Vallecano	L

📈 Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Charleroi. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Sevilla.

LSevilla 2-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LIpswich 3-0 Rayo VallecanoFriendlies Clubs
WCharleroi 2-3 Rayo VallecanoFriendlies Clubs
LFeyenoord 2-1 Rayo VallecanoFriendlies Clubs
LHeart Of Midlothian 2-1 Rayo VallecanoFriendlies Clubs

Alaves

Alaves come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Getafe. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Rayo Vallecano.

WAlaves 3-0 GetafeLa Liga
WAlaves 3-0 CastellónFriendlies Clubs
WGirona 0-1 AlavesFriendlies Clubs
DAlaves 1-1 EibarFriendlies Clubs
LAlaves 1-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Rayo Vallecano

Luiz FelipeHamstring Injury
D. MendezKnee Injury
M. KumbullaMuscle Injury

Alaves

F. GarcesSuspended
T. MendesKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Rayo Vallecano at 46% to win and Alaves at 26%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Rayo Vallecano Win	46%	@ 2.12	-1.9%
Alaves Win	26%	@ 3.70	-5.6%
Draw	28%	@ 3.00	-15.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.25 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	73%	@ 1.25	-8.7%
Alaves or Draw	52%	@ 1.67	-12.6%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	22%	@ 5.25	+15.1%
Over 2.5	43%	@ 2.60	+11.2%
Over 1.5	69%	@ 1.53	+5.5%
Under 3.5	78%	@ 1.15	-10.2%
Under 2.5	57%	@ 1.48	-15.3%
Under 1.5	31%	@ 2.45	-23.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	48%	@ 2.15	+2.7%
BTTS No	52%	@ 1.65	-13.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	45%
GradientBoosting	Home	48%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.54 for the home side, 1.09 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.53, with 69% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?

Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.04 for Alaves. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Rayo Vallecano and Alaves play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.