Thu 20 Aug1-1Finished

⚽ La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés in the La Liga. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alavés

Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés finished 1-1. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Rayo Vallecano face Alavés in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Rayo Vallecano or Draw @ 1.27

73%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 1.04 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	9.5%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
1	12.4%	12.9%	6.7%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.3%	8.7%	4.5%	1.6%	0.4%
3	3.8%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Rayo Vallecano winDrawAlavés win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at odds 1.27, with a 73% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (57%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Rayo Vallecano 46%Draw 28%Alavés 26%

46%28%26%

46%

Rayo Vallecano Win

57%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Rayo Vallecano and Alavés. Wins shown from Rayo Vallecano’s perspective: Rayo Vallecano 4 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-20	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 1	Alavés	D
2026-05-23	Alavés	1 – 2	Rayo Vallecano	W
2025-10-26	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 0	Alavés	W
2025-03-29	Alavés	0 – 2	Rayo Vallecano	W
2024-10-26	Rayo Vallecano	1 – 0	Alavés	W

📈 Recent form

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo Vallecano come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Espanyol. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-4 at Real Madrid.

DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 2-1 EspanyolLa Liga
LReal Madrid 4-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
WRayo Vallecano 3-2 Racing SantanderLa Liga
LBarcelona 5-2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Rayo Vallecano

M. KumbullaMuscle Injury
Luiz FelipeHamstring Injury

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended
T. MendesKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Rayo Vallecano at 46% to win and Alavés at 26%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano Win	46%	42%	@ 2.23
Draw	28%	32%	@ 3.00
Alavés Win	26%	26%	@ 3.65

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 1.27 (73% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano or Draw	73%	74%	@ 1.27
Alavés or Draw	52%	58%	@ 1.64

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 57% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	78%	83%	@ 1.13
Over 1.5	69%	61%	@ 1.55
Under 2.5	57%	65%	@ 1.45
Over 2.5	43%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	31%	39%	@ 2.43
Over 3.5	22%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	57%	@ 1.62
BTTS Yes	48%	43%	@ 2.18

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Rayo Vallecano or Alavés is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Rayo Vallecano +1	81%	86%	1.10
Alavés +1.75	79%	86%	1.11
Rayo Vallecano +0.75	77%	80%	1.20
Alavés +1.5	76%	79%	1.17
Rayo Vallecano +0.5	73%	73%	1.30
Alavés +1.25	70%	78%	1.22
Rayo Vallecano +0.25	67%	69%	1.40
Alavés +1	64%	75%	1.27
Rayo Vallecano 0	60%	61%	1.55
Alavés +0.75	58%	65%	1.47
Rayo Vallecano -0.25	54%	50%	@ 1.94
Alavés +0.5	52%	58%	1.64
Rayo Vallecano -0.5	48%	42%	@ 2.23
Alavés +0.25	46%	50%	1.93
Rayo Vallecano -0.75	42%	35%	@ 2.75
Alavés 0	40%	39%	2.42
Rayo Vallecano -1	36%	25%	@ 3.81
Alavés -0.25	33%	31%	@ 3.04
Rayo Vallecano -1.25	30%	22%	@ 4.36
Alavés -0.5	27%	27%	3.49
Rayo Vallecano -1.5	24%	21%	@ 4.53
Alavés -0.75	23%	20%	@ 4.68
Rayo Vallecano -1.75	21%	14%	@ 6.60
Alavés -1	19%	14%	@ 7.00

📈 How the market moved

Rayo Vallecano 42%Draw 31%Alavés 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?

Our model's main pick is Rayo Vallecano or Draw at odds 1.27, with a 73% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?

Our model makes a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés.

What is the predicted score for Rayo Vallecano vs Alavés?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.04 for Alavés. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Rayo Vallecano and Alavés play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.