⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Motherwell face SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Motherwell or Draw @ 2.10

63%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.65 – 1.16 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	7.0%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.2%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Motherwell winDrawSC Freiburg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 2.10, the selection our model is most confident in at 63%. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

Best value

Motherwell or Draw at odds 2.10, 63% model probability, +31.9% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Motherwell 18%Draw 63%SC Freiburg 19%

18%63%19%

63%

Draw

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

+31.9%

Best value: Motherwell or Draw

📈 Recent form

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to HJK Helsinki.

DStenhousemuir 0-0 MotherwellLeague Cup
WMotherwell 2-0 HJK HelsinkiUEFA Europa Conference
DMotherwell 0-0 FalkirkPremiership
DHJK Helsinki 1-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference
WHibernian 1-2 MotherwellPremiership

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Crystal Palace. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at home to Aston Villa.

WSC Freiburg 3-0 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
WSC Freiburg 2-0 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
WSC Freiburg 3-1 DerbyFriendlies Clubs
LSC Freiburg 0-3 Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
WSC Freiburg 4-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Motherwell at 18% to win and SC Freiburg at 19%, with the draw at 63%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	63%	@ 3.80	+137.9%
Motherwell Win	18%	@ 4.60	-15.9%
SC Freiburg Win	19%	@ 1.70	-67.5%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Motherwell or Draw at 2.10 (63% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Motherwell or Draw	63%	@ 2.10	+31.9%
SC Freiburg or Draw	64%	@ 1.18	-24.9%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 2.5	47%	@ 2.25	+5.1%
Under 3.5	69%	@ 1.50	+3.5%
Under 1.5	23%	@ 4.33	-0.7%
Over 1.5	77%	@ 1.20	-7.5%
Over 2.5	53%	@ 1.62	-13.7%
Over 3.5	31%	@ 2.55	-20.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	45%	@ 2.20	-2.0%
BTTS Yes	55%	@ 1.57	-13.0%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Draw	75%

Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.

Expected goals: 1.29 for the home side, 1.30 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

Our main pick is Motherwell or Draw at odds 2.10, with 63% model confidence.

Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg.

What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Motherwell and 1.16 for SC Freiburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Motherwell and SC Freiburg play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.