Thu 20 Aug1-3Finished

⚽ UEFA Europa Conference League

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League. Kick-off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Motherwell 1-3 SC Freiburg

Motherwell vs SC Freiburg finished 1-3. SC Freiburg won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Motherwell face SC Freiburg in the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League tips, kicking off Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, SC Freiburg won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a draw the most likely result at 63%, projecting a 1.6-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.65 – 1.16 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.0%	7.0%	4.1%	1.6%	0.5%
1	9.9%	11.5%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.5%	5.2%	3.0%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Motherwell winDrawSC Freiburg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a draw the most likely 1X2 outcome at 63%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Motherwell 18%Draw 63%SC Freiburg 19%

18%63%19%

63%

Draw

53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Motherwell and SC Freiburg. Wins shown from Motherwell’s perspective: SC Freiburg 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-27	SC Freiburg	4 – 1	Motherwell	L
2026-08-20	Motherwell	1 – 3	SC Freiburg	L

📈 Recent form

Motherwell

Motherwell come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Dundee Utd. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Dundee.

LDundee 2-1 MotherwellPremiership
LMotherwell 0-4 AberdeenPremiership
LRangers 1-0 MotherwellPremiership
WMotherwell 3-0 Dundee UtdPremiership
DSt Mirren 3-3 MotherwellPremiership

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Motherwell at 18% to win and SC Freiburg at 19%, with the draw at 63%. Our model makes a draw the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Draw	63%	20%	@ 4.60
SC Freiburg Win	19%	65%	@ 1.41
Motherwell Win	18%	15%	@ 6.10

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.09 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
SC Freiburg or Draw	64%	85%	@ 1.09
Motherwell or Draw	63%	35%	@ 2.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	77%	81%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	69%	58%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	53%	62%	@ 1.48
Under 2.5	47%	38%	@ 2.43
Over 3.5	31%	42%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	23%	19%	@ 4.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	56%	@ 1.64
BTTS No	45%	44%	@ 2.08

📈 How the market moved

Motherwell 14%Draw 20%SC Freiburg 66%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 58%.

Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

Our model makes a draw the most likely result at 63%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.2 scoreline for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg.

What is the predicted score for Motherwell vs SC Freiburg?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.65 for Motherwell and 1.16 for SC Freiburg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Motherwell and SC Freiburg play?

Kick-off is Thursday 20 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.