Fri 21 Aug4-0Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Marseille vs Strasbourg Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Strasbourg in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg

Marseille vs Strasbourg finished 4-0. Marseille won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Our pre-match best bet, Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, did not land.

Marseille face Strasbourg in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 2, Strasbourg won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 2.0-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Strasbourg with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Strasbourg Asian Handicap +1.75 @ 1.31

81%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.99 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	4.6%	3.4%	1.6%	0.6%
1	6.3%	9.2%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
2	6.3%	9.2%	6.7%	3.3%	1.2%
3	4.2%	6.1%	4.4%	2.2%	0.8%
4	2.1%	3.0%	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Marseille winDrawStrasbourg win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%).

📊 Key numbers

Marseille 46%Draw 23%Strasbourg 30%

46%23%30%

46%

Marseille Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Marseille and Strasbourg. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 2 · 2 drawn · Strasbourg 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-21	Marseille	4 – 0	Strasbourg	W
2026-02-14	Marseille	2 – 2	Strasbourg	D
2025-09-26	Strasbourg	1 – 2	Marseille	W
2025-01-19	Marseille	1 – 1	Strasbourg	D
2024-09-29	Strasbourg	1 – 0	Marseille	L

📈 Recent form

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.

LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1

Strasbourg

Strasbourg come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 6-2 at Estac Troyes. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Paris FC.

LParis FC 2-1 StrasbourgLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
WEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WStrasbourg 2-1 LensLigue 1
LMarseille 4-0 StrasbourgLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Marseille

Q. TimberSuspended (cards)
L. BalerdiCalf Injury
F. MoumbagnaInjury

Strasbourg

J. PanichelliKnee Injury
B. ChilwellHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Marseille at 46% to win and Strasbourg at 30%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille Win	46%	55%	@ 1.70
Strasbourg Win	30%	20%	@ 4.60
Draw	23%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.18 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille or Draw	71%	80%	@ 1.18
Strasbourg or Draw	55%	45%	@ 2.10

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	82%	@ 1.15
Over 2.5	67%	61%	@ 1.54
Under 3.5	55%	60%	@ 1.58
Over 3.5	45%	40%	@ 2.33
Under 2.5	33%	39%	@ 2.45
Under 1.5	14%	18%	@ 5.25

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	66%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	34%	39%	@ 2.38

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Marseille or Strasbourg is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Strasbourg +2	85%	79%	@ 1.20
Strasbourg +1.75	81%	73%	@ 1.31
Strasbourg +1.5	78%	66%	@ 1.42
Marseille +0.75	75%	83%	1.15
Strasbourg +1.25	72%	62%	@ 1.53
Marseille +0.5	71%	77%	1.20
Strasbourg +1	66%	57%	@ 1.68
Marseille +0.25	64%	75%	1.27
Strasbourg +0.75	61%	50%	@ 1.94
Marseille 0	58%	72%	1.33
Strasbourg +0.5	55%	44%	@ 2.13
Marseille -0.25	51%	62%	1.53
Strasbourg +0.25	49%	38%	@ 2.52
Marseille -0.5	45%	56%	1.68
Strasbourg 0	42%	28%	@ 3.38
Marseille -0.75	39%	50%	1.94
Strasbourg -0.25	36%	25%	@ 3.82
Marseille -1	34%	43%	2.19
Strasbourg -0.5	29%	23%	@ 4.12
Marseille -1.25	28%	38%	2.50
Strasbourg -0.75	25%	17%	@ 5.50
Marseille -1.5	22%	34%	2.75
Marseille -1.75	19%	27%	3.50
Marseille -2	15%	21%	4.40

📈 How the market moved

Marseille 55%Draw 23%Strasbourg 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model's main pick is Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Strasbourg?

Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline for Marseille vs Strasbourg.

What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Strasbourg?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Marseille and 1.46 for Strasbourg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Marseille and Strasbourg play?

Kick-off is Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.