vs
⚽ Ligue 1
Marseille vs Strasbourg Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Strasbourg in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
Result: Marseille 4-0 Strasbourg
Marseille vs Strasbourg finished 4-0. Marseille won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, did not land.
Marseille face Strasbourg in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 2, Strasbourg won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 2.0-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Strasbourg with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (66%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Strasbourg with a +0.75 start at odds 1.94 (+17.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Marseille and Strasbourg. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 2 · 2 drawn · Strasbourg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Marseille | 4 – 0 | Strasbourg | W |
| 2026-02-14 | Marseille | 2 – 2 | Strasbourg | D |
| 2025-09-26 | Strasbourg | 1 – 2 | Marseille | W |
| 2025-01-19 | Marseille | 1 – 1 | Strasbourg | D |
| 2024-09-29 | Strasbourg | 1 – 0 | Marseille | L |
📈 Recent form
Marseille come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Strasbourg. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at home to Atletico Madrid.
- WMarseille 4-0 StrasbourgLigue 1
- LMarseille 1-2 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
- WMarseille 3-1 Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs
- WMarseille 2-1 NimesFriendlies Clubs
- WMarseille 3-1 RennesLigue 1
Strasbourg come into this game with 0 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 16. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Marseille.
- LMarseille 4-0 StrasbourgLigue 1
- DNewcastle 1-1 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
- LSC Freiburg 2-0 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
- LStrasbourg 2-5 SV ElversbergFriendlies Clubs
- LBrighton 4-3 StrasbourgFriendlies Clubs
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Q. TimberSuspended (cards)
- L. BalerdiCalf Injury
- F. MoumbagnaInjury
- J. PanichelliKnee Injury
- B. ChilwellHamstring Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Marseille at 46% to win and Strasbourg at 30%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg Win | 30% | @ 4.10 | +25.0% |
| Draw | 23% | @ 4.10 | -4.3% |
| Marseille Win | 46% | @ 1.71 | -21.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Strasbourg or Draw at 2.05 (55% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg or Draw | 55% | @ 2.05 | +12.9% |
| Marseille or Draw | 71% | @ 1.22 | -13.6% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 45% | @ 2.38 | +7.7% |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | @ 1.55 | +3.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | @ 1.17 | +0.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 55% | @ 1.57 | -14.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | @ 2.40 | -20.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 14% | @ 5.00 | -29.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 66%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 66% | @ 1.55 | +2.1% |
| BTTS No | 34% | @ 2.30 | -21.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Marseille or Strasbourg is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg 0 | 42% | @ 3.38 | +42.3% |
| Strasbourg -0.75 | 25% | @ 5.50 | +36.5% |
| Strasbourg -0.25 | 36% | @ 3.82 | +36.3% |
| Strasbourg +0.25 | 49% | @ 2.52 | +22.3% |
| Strasbourg -0.5 | 29% | @ 4.12 | +20.5% |
| Strasbourg +0.75 | 61% | @ 1.94 | +17.6% |
| Strasbourg +0.5 | 55% | @ 2.13 | +17.2% |
| Strasbourg +1 | 66% | @ 1.68 | +11.7% |
| Strasbourg +1.5 | 78% | @ 1.42 | +10.9% |
| Strasbourg +1.25 | 72% | @ 1.53 | +10.8% |
| Strasbourg +1.75 | 81% | @ 1.31 | +6.9% |
| Strasbourg +2 | 85% | @ 1.20 | +1.6% |
| Marseille +0.75 | 75% | 1.15 | -13.5% |
| Marseille +0.5 | 71% | 1.20 | -15.1% |
| Marseille +0.25 | 64% | 1.27 | -18.3% |
| Marseille -0.25 | 51% | 1.53 | -21.4% |
| Marseille 0 | 58% | 1.33 | -23.1% |
| Marseille -0.75 | 39% | 1.94 | -24.1% |
| Marseille -0.5 | 45% | 1.68 | -24.5% |
| Marseille -1 | 34% | 2.19 | -26.6% |
| Marseille -1.25 | 28% | 2.50 | -30.3% |
| Marseille -2 | 15% | 4.40 | -32.5% |
| Marseille -1.75 | 19% | 3.50 | -34.5% |
| Marseille -1.5 | 22% | 2.75 | -39.2% |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our main pick is Strasbourg Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Strasbourg with a +0.75 start at 1.94 (+17.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.5 scoreline for Marseille vs Strasbourg.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Strasbourg?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.99 for Marseille and 1.46 for Strasbourg. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Marseille and Strasbourg play?
Kick-off is Friday 21 August 2026, 18:45 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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AnnecyAnalytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.