🏆 Competitions

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Betting Tips

Free daily Ligue 1 tips powered by AI analysis. Posted every morning across all our channels.

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Most Likely Picks This Week (Accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
France, Ligue 1
Sat 17 Oct
15:15		Over 2.572.9%@ 1.30
Le Havre vs Auxerre
France, Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct
15:15		Under 3.570.3%@ 1.36

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs Market This Week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Le Mans vs Toulouse
France, Ligue 1
Fri 16 Oct
18:45		BTTS Yes66.4%@ 1.62+7.6%
Lorient vs Monaco
France, Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct
15:15		BTTS Yes65.0%@ 1.75+13.7%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.6%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market Probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Le Mans vs Toulouse â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market32%@2.9027%@3.5041%@2.3078%@1.2266%@1.4458%@1.62
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
DC X2
68%
@ 1.40
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
DC 1X
59%
@ 1.57
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Away Win
41%
@ 2.30
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Home Win
32%
@ 2.90
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market15%@6.2518%@5.2567%@1.4088%@1.0847%@2.0063%@1.50
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
DC X2
85%
@ 1.12
Over 2.5
73%
@ 1.30
Away Win
67%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Over 3.5
53%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
47%
@ 2.00
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
DC 1X
33%
@ 2.75
Under 2.5
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
18%
@ 5.25
Home Win
15%
@ 6.25
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market54%@1.7325%@3.8021%@4.5078%@1.2266%@1.4456%@1.67
DC 1X
79%
@ 1.18
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Home Win
54%
@ 1.73
DC X2
46%
@ 2.05
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Away Win
21%
@ 4.50
Estac Troyes vs Lens â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market23%@4.0025%@3.8052%@1.8081%@1.1760%@1.5761%@1.53
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
DC X2
77%
@ 1.22
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
Away Win
52%
@ 1.80
DC 1X
48%
@ 1.95
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.38
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Home Win
23%
@ 4.00
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Angers vs Marseille â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
13:00		Market30%@3.1026%@3.6044%@2.1579%@1.2062%@1.5361%@1.53
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC X2
70%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
62%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
DC 1X
56%
@ 1.67
Away Win
44%
@ 2.15
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
38%
@ 2.50
Home Win
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Le Havre vs Auxerre â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market38%@2.4528%@3.3033%@2.8075%@1.2870%@1.3655%@1.70
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
67%
@ 1.40
DC X2
62%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
55%
@ 1.70
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
45%
@ 2.05
Home Win
38%
@ 2.45
Away Win
33%
@ 2.80
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
28%
@ 3.30
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Lorient vs Monaco â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market28%@3.3026%@3.6046%@2.0575%@1.2870%@1.3653%@1.75
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
DC X2
72%
@ 1.33
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC 1X
54%
@ 1.73
BTTS Yes
53%
@ 1.75
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
47%
@ 2.00
Away Win
46%
@ 2.05
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Home Win
28%
@ 3.30
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Paris FC vs Rennes â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market42%@2.2526%@3.6032%@2.9079%@1.2064%@1.5059%@1.57
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC 1X
68%
@ 1.40
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
DC X2
58%
@ 1.62
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Home Win
42%
@ 2.25
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Away Win
32%
@ 2.90
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Lyon vs Nice â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market57%@1.6525%@3.7518%@5.2579%@1.2064%@1.5056%@1.67
DC 1X
82%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
Home Win
57%
@ 1.65
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
DC X2
43%
@ 2.20
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Away Win
18%
@ 5.25
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Ligue 1

Ligue 1 is France’s top football division, featuring Paris Saint-Germain, Marseille, Lyon, Monaco and other historic clubs. The league has a global reputation for developing exceptional young talent, Kylian Mbappe, Thierry Henry and many other world-class players launched their careers here.

For bettors, Ligue 1 presents a fascinating dynamic shaped by PSG’s financial dominance. The gap between PSG and the rest of the league is significant. Outside of PSG fixtures, the mid-table is highly competitive and unpredictable.

Why we cover this competition
Every fixture gets a full analysis: model and market probabilities, a score heatmap and every betting market, updated every morning.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.84
goals per match on average
54.0%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
52.3%
of matches see both teams score
46.0%
home wins

Based on 363 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key Betting Facts: Ligue 1

âš˝
PSG’s decade of dominance
PSG have won 10 of the last 12 Ligue 1 titles. When at full strength against lower-table sides, Asian handicap bets backing PSG to win by a margin are among the most consistent in European football.
🏠
Lowest away win rate in major leagues
Away teams win only 28% of Ligue 1 matches, one of the lowest rates in European football. Home sides are consistently worth backing, particularly in the top half of the table.
🎯
Set piece scoring leaders
Ligue 1 produces more goals from set pieces per game than any other major European league. This makes both teams to score and first goalscorer markets particularly unpredictable in the French top flight.
🏆
Monaco and Marseille road form
Monaco and Marseille have the best away records outside PSG. Our models specifically track their away performance patterns.

New to sports betting? Read our complete guide to betting, our guide to understanding odds and our Asian handicap explainer.

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 11 competitions only, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Our Ligue 1 Betting Record

66.7% of our published tips won 21 settled tips in this competition
See all our published tips →
📅 11 Oct 2026❌ Loss
Nice vs Strasbourg
Pick: Strasbourg Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.81
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 53.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.81 imply about 55% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
đź“… 10 Oct 2026âś… Win
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers
Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.80
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 53.3% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
đź“… 09 Oct 2026âś… Win
Lens vs Lyon
Pick: Lens Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.31
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 72.9% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.31 imply about 76% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

All Ligue 1 match analyses →

Ligue 1 Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Monaco Monaco6420105+514
DWDWW
2Lille Lille641194+513
WLWWD
3Rennes Rennes64111210+213
WLWWW
4Lyon Lyon6321114+711
LWDWD
5Paris FC Paris FC632184+411
LWDWW
6Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain6321118+311
WWWLD
7Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 296222129+38
WLLWD
8Lorient Lorient622266+08
WLDWL
9Nice Nice622257-28
WWLDL
10Lens Lens62131110+17
WLDLL
11Strasbourg Strasbourg62131112-17
LLDWW
12Angers Angers6213710-37
LWDLW
13Marseille Marseille620498+16
WLLLL
14Le Mans Le Mans61321012-26
LWDDL
15Toulouse Toulouse6132911-26
DWDLD
16Auxerre Auxerre6204816-86
LWWLL
17Estac Troyes Estac Troyes6114413-94
LLLLW
18Le Havre Le Havre602448-42
LLDLD
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top Scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
T
Ferran Torres4
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
0
2
B
Paris Josua Brunner4
MonacoMonaco
0
3
A
C. Archer4
AuxerreAuxerre
0
4
D
K. Doumbia4
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
1
5
M
L. Mafouta4
Le MansLe Mans
1
6
G
A. Gouiri4
MarseilleMarseille
1
7
L
E. Lepaul4
RennesRennes
0
8
S
L. Sinayoko4
Paris FCParis FC
1
9
T
C. Tengstedt4
ToulouseToulouse
1
10
B
A. Bourabaa3
Le MansLe Mans
2

Top Assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
T
F. Thauvin4
LensLens
2
C
C. Cásseres4
ToulouseToulouse
3
Ĺ 
P. Ĺ ulc3
LyonLyon
4
G
A. Golovin3
MonacoMonaco
5
K
P. Katseris3
LorientLorient
6
B
A. Bourabaa2
Le MansLe Mans
7
T
A. Thomasson2
RennesRennes
8
A
Z. Athekame2
LyonLyon
9
G
O. Giroud2
LilleLille
10
C
L. Calodat2
Le MansLe Mans

Frequently Asked Questions

How often do you post Ligue 1 tips?

We publish a full analysis for every Ligue 1 fixture, every morning, with picks when our fixed rules are met.

Is Ligue 1 dominated by PSG?

PSG have dominated Ligue 1 for over a decade, and bookmakers price their matches accordingly, often with very short odds.

Are your Ligue 1 tips free?

Yes, completely free. Follow us on Telegram for daily updates.

Which bookmakers are best for Ligue 1?

We don’t promote any single bookmaker. Compare the odds across several licensed operators and always check that a bookmaker is licensed in your country before depositing.

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