🏆 Competitions

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Betting Tips

Free Ligue 1 match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 977 matches from our own database.

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Key facts
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Method
Standings
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Most likely picks this week (accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
France, Ligue 1
Sat 17 Oct
18:45		AH Stade Brestois 29 +1.572.3%@ 1.32
Estac Troyes vs Lens
France, Ligue 1
Sat 17 Oct
18:45		AH Lens +0.2572.0%@ 1.33
Lorient vs Monaco
France, Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct
15:15		Under 3.571.0%@ 1.33
Le Havre vs Auxerre
France, Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct
15:15		Under 3.570.3%@ 1.36

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs market this week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Lorient vs Monaco
France, Ligue 1
Sun 18 Oct
15:15		BTTS Yes65.0%@ 1.75+13.7%
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29
France, Ligue 1
Sat 17 Oct
18:45		AH Lille -0.2563.6%@ 1.68+6.9%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.1%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market51%@1.8525%@3.7524%@4.0078%@1.2266%@1.4458%@1.62
Stade Brestois 29 +2
83%
@ 1.14
Lille +0.75
81%
@ 1.17
Over 1.5
78%
@ 1.22
DC 1X
76%
@ 1.25
Stade Brestois 29 +1.75
76%
@ 1.23
Lille +0.5
74%
@ 1.28
Stade Brestois 29 +1.5
72%
@ 1.32
Lille +0.25
71%
@ 1.34
Stade Brestois 29 +1.25
69%
@ 1.39
Under 3.5
66%
@ 1.44
Lille 0.0
66%
@ 1.45
Stade Brestois 29 +1
64%
@ 1.49
BTTS Yes
58%
@ 1.62
Lille -0.25
57%
@ 1.68
Stade Brestois 29 +0.75
56%
@ 1.70
Over 2.5
55%
@ 1.73
Home Win
51%
@ 1.85
Lille -0.5
50%
@ 1.93
Stade Brestois 29 +0.5
50%
@ 1.95
DC X2
49%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
45%
@ 2.10
Lille -0.75
44%
@ 2.19
Stade Brestois 29 +0.25
43%
@ 2.22
BTTS No
42%
@ 2.20
Lille -1.0
36%
@ 2.67
Over 3.5
34%
@ 2.75
Stade Brestois 29 0
34%
@ 2.81
Lille -1.25
31%
@ 3.03
Stade Brestois 29 -0.25
29%
@ 3.34
Lille -1.5
28%
@ 3.45
Stade Brestois 29 -0.5
26%
@ 3.74
Draw
25%
@ 3.75
Away Win
24%
@ 4.00
Lille -1.75
24%
@ 4.00
Under 1.5
22%
@ 4.33
Stade Brestois 29 -0.75
19%
@ 5.00
Lille -2.0
17%
@ 5.75
Estac Troyes vs Lens â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market25%@3.8024%@4.0051%@1.8581%@1.1760%@1.5761%@1.53
Lens +1
86%
@ 1.10
Estac Troyes +2.0
83%
@ 1.15
Over 1.5
81%
@ 1.17
Lens +0.75
80%
@ 1.18
DC X2
75%
@ 1.25
Lens +0.5
75%
@ 1.27
Estac Troyes +1.75
75%
@ 1.25
Lens +0.25
72%
@ 1.33
Estac Troyes +1.5
70%
@ 1.37
Lens 0
68%
@ 1.41
Estac Troyes +1.25
66%
@ 1.44
Estac Troyes +1.0
62%
@ 1.55
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
60%
@ 1.57
Under 3.5
60%
@ 1.57
Lens -0.25
59%
@ 1.63
Estac Troyes +0.75
54%
@ 1.78
Lens -0.5
52%
@ 1.86
Away Win
51%
@ 1.85
DC 1X
49%
@ 1.91
Estac Troyes +0.5
48%
@ 2.02
Lens -0.75
46%
@ 2.08
Estac Troyes +0.25
41%
@ 2.32
Over 3.5
40%
@ 2.38
Under 2.5
40%
@ 2.38
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Lens -1
38%
@ 2.47
Lens -1.25
34%
@ 2.81
Estac Troyes 0.0
32%
@ 2.96
Lens -1.5
30%
@ 3.16
Estac Troyes -0.25
28%
@ 3.41
Home Win
25%
@ 3.80
Estac Troyes -0.5
25%
@ 3.83
Lens -1.75
25%
@ 3.80
Draw
24%
@ 4.00
Estac Troyes -0.75
20%
@ 4.65
Under 1.5
19%
@ 5.00
Lens -2
17%
@ 5.50
Estac Troyes -1.0
14%
@ 7.00
Angers vs Marseille â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
13:00		Market28%@3.4025%@3.8047%@2.0079%@1.2062%@1.5361%@1.53
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC X2
72%
@ 1.30
Under 3.5
62%
@ 1.53
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
DC 1X
53%
@ 1.80
Away Win
47%
@ 2.00
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Over 3.5
38%
@ 2.50
Home Win
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
25%
@ 3.80
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Le Havre vs Auxerre â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market42%@2.2528%@3.4030%@3.2076%@1.2570%@1.3656%@1.67
Over 1.5
76%
@ 1.25
DC 1X
70%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
70%
@ 1.36
DC X2
58%
@ 1.62
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
Home Win
42%
@ 2.25
Away Win
30%
@ 3.20
Over 3.5
30%
@ 3.20
Draw
28%
@ 3.40
Under 1.5
24%
@ 4.00
Lorient vs Monaco â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market26%@3.6027%@3.5046%@2.0575%@1.2872%@1.3353%@1.75
Over 1.5
75%
@ 1.28
DC X2
74%
@ 1.28
Under 3.5
72%
@ 1.33
DC 1X
54%
@ 1.73
BTTS Yes
53%
@ 1.75
Over 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
Under 2.5
50%
@ 1.91
BTTS No
47%
@ 2.00
Away Win
46%
@ 2.05
Over 3.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
27%
@ 3.50
Home Win
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
25%
@ 3.75
Paris FC vs Rennes â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
15:15		Market42%@2.2526%@3.6032%@3.0079%@1.2064%@1.5059%@1.57
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
DC 1X
68%
@ 1.36
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
BTTS Yes
59%
@ 1.57
DC X2
58%
@ 1.62
Over 2.5
57%
@ 1.67
Under 2.5
43%
@ 2.20
Home Win
42%
@ 2.25
BTTS No
41%
@ 2.25
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Away Win
32%
@ 3.00
Draw
26%
@ 3.60
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Lyon vs Nice â–Ľ
France, Ligue 1
18:45		Market57%@1.6723%@4.1020%@4.7579%@1.2064%@1.5056%@1.67
DC 1X
80%
@ 1.18
Over 1.5
79%
@ 1.20
Under 3.5
64%
@ 1.50
Over 2.5
59%
@ 1.62
Home Win
57%
@ 1.67
BTTS Yes
56%
@ 1.67
BTTS No
44%
@ 2.10
DC X2
43%
@ 2.15
Under 2.5
41%
@ 2.30
Over 3.5
36%
@ 2.62
Draw
23%
@ 4.10
Under 1.5
21%
@ 4.50
Away Win
20%
@ 4.75
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About Ligue 1

Ligue 1 is the top division in France: 18 clubs play 34 matchdays each season.

We track every match in Ligue 1 in our own database: 977 matches since August 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.84
goals per match on average
54.1%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
52.2%
of matches see both teams score
45.9%
home wins

Based on 364 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: Ligue 1 in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 977 from August 2023 to October 2026:

âš˝
2.84 goals per match
54.1% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 32.4% over 3.5. Below the average of 55.5% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
44.1% home wins
Draws 24.0%, away wins 31.9%. Home sides scored 1.55 goals per match, away sides 1.28. Below the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
54.4% both teams scored
7.2% of matches ended 0-0. In line with the average of 54.2% across the 16 competitions we cover.
đź“Š
1-1 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.5%), 1-2 (7.3%).
🥅
76.9% over 1.5 goals
In 23.1% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
24.0% draws
How often matches ended level. In line with the average of 24.1% across the 16 competitions we cover.

By period:

Period Matches Goals Home wins Over 2.5 BTTS
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 307 2.70 39.4% 53.1% 54.1%
Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 307 2.97 46.6% 55.4% 57.0%
Since Jul 2025 363 2.84 46.0% 54.0% 52.3%

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 51.9% of 54 matches in Ligue 1, against 52.8% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 3.5%. Favourites here came in about as often as priced. That is a small sample, so treat it as a hint, not a rule.

Our model picked the right result in 49.2% of 120 live matches in Ligue 1 since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 48.7% on 113 matches.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in Ligue 1

Our published tips in Ligue 1 since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 16 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 9 87.5% 1.48 +28.0%
Extra tips 7 50.0% 1.80 −9.1%
All tips 16 71.4% 1.62 +11.8%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

87.5% of our main tips won 8 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 17 Oct 2026⏳ Pending
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
Pick: Paris Saint Germain Asian Handicap -1.25 @ 1.80
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 53.1% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 11 Oct 2026❌ Loss
Nice vs Strasbourg
Pick: Strasbourg Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 1.81
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 53.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.81 imply about 55% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
đź“… 10 Oct 2026âś… Win
Stade Brestois 29 vs Angers
Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.80
đź’ˇ Market consensus puts this at 53.3% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Monaco Monaco6420105+514
DWDWW
2Lille Lille641194+513
WLWWD
3Rennes Rennes64111210+213
WLWWW
4Lyon Lyon6321114+711
LWDWD
5Paris FC Paris FC632184+411
LWDWW
6Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain6321118+311
WWWLD
7Toulouse Toulouse72321211+19
WDWDL
8Stade Brestois 29 Stade Brestois 296222129+38
WLLWD
9Lorient Lorient622266+08
WLDWL
10Nice Nice622257-28
WWLDL
11Lens Lens62131110+17
WLDLL
12Strasbourg Strasbourg62131112-17
LLDWW
13Angers Angers6213710-37
LWDLW
14Marseille Marseille620498+16
WLLLL
15Le Mans Le Mans71331015-56
LLWDD
16Auxerre Auxerre6204816-86
LWWLL
17Estac Troyes Estac Troyes6114413-94
LLLLW
18Le Havre Le Havre602448-42
LLDLD
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
T
C. Tengstedt5
ToulouseToulouse
1
2
T
Ferran Torres4
Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
0
3
B
Paris Josua Brunner4
MonacoMonaco
0
4
A
C. Archer4
AuxerreAuxerre
0
5
M
L. Mafouta4
Le MansLe Mans
1
6
D
K. Doumbia4
Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 29
1
7
G
A. Gouiri4
MarseilleMarseille
1
8
L
E. Lepaul4
RennesRennes
0
9
S
L. Sinayoko4
Paris FCParis FC
1
10
B
A. Bourabaa3
Le MansLe Mans
2

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
C
C. Cásseres5
ToulouseToulouse
2
T
F. Thauvin4
LensLens
3
Ĺ 
P. Ĺ ulc3
LyonLyon
4
G
A. Golovin3
MonacoMonaco
5
K
P. Katseris3
LorientLorient
6
B
A. Bourabaa2
Le MansLe Mans
7
T
A. Thomasson2
RennesRennes
8
A
Z. Athekame2
LyonLyon
9
C
L. Calodat2
Le MansLe Mans
10
G
O. Giroud2
LilleLille

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in Ligue 1?

In our database Ligue 1 averages 2.84 goals per match over 977 matches since August 2023. 54.1% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 54.4% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in Ligue 1?

Home sides won 44.1% of 977 matches in our database, draws were 24.0% and away wins 31.9%.

How accurate are your predictions in Ligue 1?

Our model picked the right result in 49.2% of 120 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 16 settled, with a return of +11.8%.

Are your tips in Ligue 1 free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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