🏆 Competitions

Belgian Pro League

Belgian Pro League Betting Tips

Free Belgian Pro League match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 781 matches from our own database.

Upcoming Belgian Pro League fixtures

Fri 23 Oct18:45
KortrijkvsKV Mechelen
KortrijkvsKV Mechelen
Prediction on matchday
Sat 24 Oct14:00
AntwerpvsCharleroi
AntwerpvsCharleroi
Prediction on matchday
Sat 24 Oct16:15
OH LeuvenvsLommel United
OH LeuvenvsLommel United
Prediction on matchday
Sat 24 Oct18:45
RAAL La LouvièrevsZulte Waregem
RAAL La LouvièrevsZulte Waregem
Prediction on matchday
Sat 24 Oct18:45
KVC WesterlovsSK Beveren
KVC WesterlovsSK Beveren
Prediction on matchday

About the Belgian Pro League

The Belgian Pro League is the top division in Belgium: 16 clubs play a regular season of 30 matchdays, followed by play-offs.

We track every match in the Belgian Pro League in our own database: 781 matches since July 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

2.93
goals per match on average
59.9%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
49.3%
of matches see both teams score
44.1%
home wins

Based on 152 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: the Belgian Pro League in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 781 from July 2023 to October 2026:

⚽
2.82 goals per match
54.8% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 32.0% over 3.5. In line with the average of 55.5% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
44.0% home wins
Draws 26.0%, away wins 30.0%. Home sides scored 1.60 goals per match, away sides 1.22. Below the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
53.4% both teams scored
7.2% of matches ended 0-0. Below the average of 54.2% across the 16 competitions we cover.
📊
1-1 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-1 (12.3%), 1-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%), 0-0 (7.2%), 0-1 (7.2%).
🥅
77.1% over 1.5 goals
In 22.9% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
26.0% draws
How often matches ended level. Above the average of 24.1% across the 16 competitions we cover.

By period:

Period Matches Goals Home wins Over 2.5 BTTS
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 314 2.82 44.3% 54.8% 55.1%
Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 315 2.77 43.8% 52.4% 53.7%
Since Jul 2025 152 2.93 44.1% 59.9% 49.3%

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 62.5% of 64 matches in the Belgian Pro League, against 53.1% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 4.2%. Favourites here came in more often than their price suggested. That is a small sample, so treat it as a hint, not a rule.

Our model picked the right result in 52.3% of 151 live matches in the Belgian Pro League since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 54.0% on 139 matches.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in the Belgian Pro League

Our published tips in the Belgian Pro League since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 18 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 12 95.7% 1.34 +26.8%
Extra tips 6 50.0% 2.19 +21.7%
All tips 18 80.0% 1.62 +25.1%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

95.7% of our main tips won 12 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 11 Oct 2026✅ Win
Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Pick: Charleroi Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.1% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 19 Sep 2026❌ Loss
OH Leuven vs RAAL La Louvière
Pick: RAAL La Louvière Asian Handicap +0.5 @ 1.80
💡 Market consensus puts this at 53.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 13 Sep 2026🔽 Half Loss
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi
Pick: Zulte Waregem Asian Handicap +0.75 @ 1.35
💡 Model gives 83.9% probability for this selection. At odds 1.35 this represents +13.7% expected value. Selected as main accumulator pick by our fixed rule system: same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Gent Gent8710154+1122
WWDWW
2Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV8701194+1521
WWWWL
3Charleroi Charleroi8701167+921
WWWLW
4Union St. Gilloise Union St. Gilloise8620224+1820
DWWWW
5Anderlecht Anderlecht851296+316
WWWDW
6KVC Westerlo KVC Westerlo84132017+313
WWWWD
7Genk Genk83321612+412
WLDDW
8Zulte Waregem Zulte Waregem8323109+111
LLLWD
9Standard Liege Standard Liege83231313+011
LLLWW
10Lommel United Lommel United832399+011
WDLLW
11SK Beveren SK Beveren8305814-69
LLWWL
12St. Truiden St. Truiden82241516-18
LLLWL
13Antwerp Antwerp82151220-87
LLLLL
14KV Mechelen KV Mechelen8134917-86
WDLLD
15OH Leuven OH Leuven8125614-85
DWDLL
16RAAL La Louvière RAAL La Louvière8116818-104
LLWLD
17Kortrijk Kortrijk8107218-163
LWLLL
18Cercle Brugge Cercle Brugge8035916-73
LLDLL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
D
R. Durosinmi6
GenkGenk
0
2
U
M. Ubandoma5
RAAL La LouvièreRAAL La Louvière
0
3
B
S. Baždar5
St. TruidenSt. Truiden
0
4
B
N. Bassette5
KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo
0
5
F
R. Florucz4
Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise
0
6
A
D. Eckert Ayensa4
Standard LiegeStandard Liege
1
7
F
M. Frey4
AntwerpAntwerp
0
8
L
C. Lokesa4
SK BeverenSK Beveren
0
9
V
H. Vetlesen4
Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
0
10
T
N. Tresoldi4
Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
0

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
M
R. Merlen4
St. TruidenSt. Truiden
2
Z
B. Zeneli4
Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise
3
B
M. Biondic4
Union St. GilloiseUnion St. Gilloise
4
E
A. Ementa4
Zulte WaregemZulte Waregem
5
S
I. Sebaoui3
St. TruidenSt. Truiden
6
F
Carlos Forbs3
Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
7
N
C. Nielsen3
Standard LiegeStandard Liege
8
P
P. Pflücke3
CharleroiCharleroi
9
S
I. Sakamoto3
KVC WesterloKVC Westerlo
10
R
J. Romsaas3
CharleroiCharleroi

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in the Belgian Pro League?

In our database the Belgian Pro League averages 2.82 goals per match over 781 matches since July 2023. 54.8% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 53.4% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in the Belgian Pro League?

Home sides won 44.0% of 781 matches in our database, draws were 26.0% and away wins 30.0%.

How accurate are your predictions in the Belgian Pro League?

Our model picked the right result in 52.3% of 151 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 18 settled, with a return of +25.1%.

Are your tips in the Belgian Pro League free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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