🏆 Competitions

Eredivisie

Eredivisie Betting Tips

Free Eredivisie match analyses with model and market probabilities, built on 1,020 matches from our own database.

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Method
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Most likely picks this week (accumulator)

MatchPickProbability Odd
Telstar vs Feyenoord
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
18:00		Over 2.571.8%@ 1.33
Twente vs Utrecht
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sun 18 Oct
18:00		Over 2.571.7%@ 1.33

Sorted by market probability (highest first). For accumulator-style combination picks. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

Model vs market this week

MatchPickModel OddModel edge
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sun 18 Oct
12:30		Over 2.582.3%@ 1.36+11.9%
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
19:00		AH Willem II +1.7578.9%@ 1.39+9.3%
Telstar vs Feyenoord
Netherlands, Eredivisie
Sat 17 Oct
18:00		AH Telstar +268.6%@ 1.56+6.7%

Sorted by model probability. Only picks where our model stays within 10 percentage points of the bookmaker price, in competitions where our model holds up best. Analytical view, not betting advice. UpcomingStarts soonLiveFinished

These picks overlap with the accumulator above: same matches, more aggressive lines. Do not count them as separate bets.

Until 18 September 2026 this table looked for the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price. Over the last 90 days that approach returned -8.1%, so we changed it: it now only lists picks close to the market, in the competitions where our model holds up best. We publish these numbers because we test our methods in the open.

Market probabilities

MatchSourceHome%Draw%Away%O1.5U3.5BTTS
Tip: click a match row to see all betting markets. Every probability comes from the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed.
Telstar vs Feyenoord ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market12%@7.5017%@5.5070%@1.3388%@1.0849%@1.9161%@1.53
DC X2
88%
@ 1.10
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Feyenoord +0.5
86%
@ 1.10
Feyenoord +0.25
86%
@ 1.10
Feyenoord 0
86%
@ 1.11
Feyenoord -0.25
77%
@ 1.22
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
Feyenoord -0.5
71%
@ 1.34
Away Win
70%
@ 1.33
Feyenoord -0.75
68%
@ 1.40
Feyenoord -1
64%
@ 1.49
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Telstar +2.0
61%
@ 1.56
Feyenoord -1.25
57%
@ 1.68
Telstar +1.75
54%
@ 1.76
Feyenoord -1.5
52%
@ 1.86
Over 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Under 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
Telstar +1.5
48%
@ 1.99
Feyenoord -1.75
46%
@ 2.09
Telstar +1.25
43%
@ 2.22
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Feyenoord -2
39%
@ 2.45
Telstar +1.0
36%
@ 2.65
Telstar +0.75
32%
@ 3.01
DC 1X
30%
@ 3.25
Telstar +0.5
29%
@ 3.33
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
Telstar +0.25
23%
@ 4.15
Draw
17%
@ 5.50
Telstar -0.5
14%
@ 6.80
Telstar -0.25
14%
@ 7.00
Telstar 0.0
14%
@ 6.60
Home Win
12%
@ 7.50
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
19:00		Market58%@1.6222%@4.3320%@4.7584%@1.1256%@1.6761%@1.53
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
Sparta Rotterdam +0.75
84%
@ 1.12
DC 1X
80%
@ 1.18
Sparta Rotterdam +0.5
79%
@ 1.19
Sparta Rotterdam +0.25
77%
@ 1.22
Willem II +2
76%
@ 1.26
Sparta Rotterdam 0.0
74%
@ 1.28
Willem II +1.75
69%
@ 1.39
Sparta Rotterdam -0.25
66%
@ 1.45
Over 2.5
64%
@ 1.48
Willem II +1.5
63%
@ 1.52
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Sparta Rotterdam -0.5
59%
@ 1.62
Home Win
58%
@ 1.62
Willem II +1.25
58%
@ 1.64
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
Sparta Rotterdam -0.75
54%
@ 1.78
Willem II +1
53%
@ 1.82
Sparta Rotterdam -1.0
47%
@ 2.03
Willem II +0.75
46%
@ 2.07
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
DC X2
42%
@ 2.25
Sparta Rotterdam -1.25
42%
@ 2.30
Willem II +0.5
41%
@ 2.32
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
Sparta Rotterdam -1.5
37%
@ 2.57
Under 2.5
36%
@ 2.60
Willem II +0.25
34%
@ 2.77
Sparta Rotterdam -1.75
31%
@ 3.07
Willem II 0
26%
@ 3.71
Sparta Rotterdam -2.0
24%
@ 3.95
Willem II -0.25
23%
@ 4.15
Draw
22%
@ 4.33
Willem II -0.5
21%
@ 4.50
Away Win
20%
@ 4.75
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Willem II -0.75
16%
@ 6.00
PEC Zwolle vs GO Ahead Eagles ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
10:15		Market27%@3.5024%@3.9049%@1.9584%@1.1256%@1.6765%@1.44
Over 1.5
84%
@ 1.12
DC X2
73%
@ 1.28
Over 2.5
65%
@ 1.44
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Under 3.5
56%
@ 1.67
DC 1X
51%
@ 1.80
Away Win
49%
@ 1.95
Over 3.5
44%
@ 2.10
Under 2.5
35%
@ 2.70
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Home Win
27%
@ 3.50
Draw
24%
@ 3.90
Under 1.5
16%
@ 6.00
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
12:30		Market16%@6.0020%@4.7564%@1.4886%@1.1050%@1.8363%@1.50
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
DC X2
84%
@ 1.12
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
Away Win
64%
@ 1.48
BTTS Yes
63%
@ 1.50
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
BTTS No
38%
@ 2.50
DC 1X
36%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
Draw
20%
@ 4.75
Home Win
16%
@ 6.00
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
Groningen vs Ajax ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
14:45		Market26%@3.6024%@4.0050%@1.9186%@1.1050%@1.8369%@1.36
Over 1.5
86%
@ 1.10
DC X2
74%
@ 1.28
Over 2.5
70%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
69%
@ 1.36
Away Win
50%
@ 1.91
DC 1X
50%
@ 1.83
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
BTTS No
31%
@ 3.00
Under 2.5
30%
@ 3.10
Home Win
26%
@ 3.60
Draw
24%
@ 4.00
Under 1.5
14%
@ 7.00
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market58%@1.6522%@4.3320%@4.7585%@1.1151%@1.8065%@1.44
Over 1.5
85%
@ 1.11
DC 1X
80%
@ 1.18
Over 2.5
67%
@ 1.40
BTTS Yes
65%
@ 1.44
Home Win
58%
@ 1.65
Under 3.5
51%
@ 1.80
Over 3.5
49%
@ 1.91
DC X2
42%
@ 2.20
BTTS No
35%
@ 2.62
Under 2.5
33%
@ 2.88
Draw
22%
@ 4.33
Away Win
20%
@ 4.75
Under 1.5
15%
@ 6.50
Twente vs Utrecht ▼
Netherlands, Eredivisie
18:00		Market71%@1.3617%@5.5012%@8.0088%@1.0850%@1.8361%@1.53
DC 1X
88%
@ 1.08
Over 1.5
88%
@ 1.08
Over 2.5
72%
@ 1.33
Home Win
71%
@ 1.36
BTTS Yes
61%
@ 1.53
Over 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
Under 3.5
50%
@ 1.83
BTTS No
39%
@ 2.38
DC X2
29%
@ 3.00
Under 2.5
28%
@ 3.40
Draw
17%
@ 5.50
Away Win
12%
@ 8.00
Under 1.5
12%
@ 8.00
How to read this table: For every match we show the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. We do not label any market as value or safe: in our own testing our model did not beat the market, so we show the numbers from the market itself. Analytical view, not betting advice. Bet responsibly.

About the Eredivisie

The Eredivisie is the top division in the Netherlands: 18 clubs play 34 matchdays each season.

We track every match in the Eredivisie in our own database: 1,020 matches since August 2023. The numbers on this page come from that data, not from a generic source, and update as new results come in.

📈 Live competition numbers

Measured from our own settled results, not looked up.

3.28
goals per match on average
63.8%
of matches go over 2.5 goals
64.1%
of matches see both teams score
41.9%
home wins

Based on 384 settled matches since August 2025. Updated after every matchday.

Key facts: the Eredivisie in numbers

Every settled match in our database, 1,020 from August 2023 to October 2026:

⚽
3.19 goals per match
61.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and 40.5% over 3.5. The second highest of the 16 competitions we cover.
🏠
43.3% home wins
Draws 25.7%, away wins 31.0%. Home sides scored 1.76 goals per match, away sides 1.43. Below the average of 45.4% across the 16 competitions we cover.
🎯
59.3% both teams scored
3.9% of matches ended 0-0. Above the average of 54.2% across the 16 competitions we cover.
📊
1-1 is the most common score
The five most common results: 1-1 (11.3%), 2-2 (8.6%), 1-0 (7.4%), 1-2 (7.4%), 2-0 (7.0%).
🥅
84.7% over 1.5 goals
In 15.3% of matches one goal or none was scored.
🤝
25.7% draws
How often matches ended level. Above the average of 24.1% across the 16 competitions we cover.

By period:

Period Matches Goals Home wins Over 2.5 BTTS
Jul 2023 to Jun 2024 320 3.28 42.8% 64.7% 57.5%
Jul 2024 to Jun 2025 317 2.97 45.7% 54.9% 55.2%
Since Jul 2025 383 3.28 41.8% 63.7% 64.2%

Source: Daily Sport Pick match database, all settled matches in this competition.

How to use these numbers: our guides to over/under, both teams to score and reading odds.

The market against reality

At Pinnacle’s last price before kick-off, the favourite won 52.1% of 71 matches in the Eredivisie, against 60.7% implied by its odds. Pinnacle’s average margin on the match result was 4.3%. Favourites here came in less often than their price suggested. That is a small sample, so treat it as a hint, not a rule.

Our model picked the right result in 53.8% of 130 live matches in the Eredivisie since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. The newer v4 model scored 57.1% on 126 matches.

Key point

The bookmaker market is hard to beat. In our own testing across all competitions the odds were a better forecast than our model, which is why every analysis shows both numbers side by side.

Our record in the Eredivisie

Our published tips in the Eredivisie since 11 May 2026, when our public archive starts: 18 settled. That is far too few to judge a method on; we show it because we show every result.

Tips Settled Won Avg. odds Return
Main tips 10 66.7% 1.34 −10.4%
Extra tips 8 62.5% 2.61 +53.2%
All tips 18 64.7% 1.90 +17.9%

Source: Daily Sport Pick published tips, 1 unit per tip, settled at the odds published.

66.7% of our main tips won 9 settled main tips in this competition since 11 May 2026 (extra tips not included)
See all our published tips →
📅 16 Oct 2026✅ Win
Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Pick: Heerenveen Asian Handicap -0.75 @ 1.80
💡 Market consensus puts this at 53.1% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.80 imply about 56% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 11 Oct 2026✅ Win
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag
Pick: ADO Den Haag Asian Handicap +1.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.2% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.
📅 10 Oct 2026❌ Loss
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.30
💡 Market consensus puts this at 73.4% (bookmaker margin removed); the odds of 1.30 imply about 77% including margin. Selected by our fixed rules: top competitions only, enough data from this season, same criteria every day, no manual selection.

Every tip and result in our archive →

How our analysis works

We use the same method for every competition, so you can check it against the results.

1
Three models, one probability
A gradient-boosting model trained on form, expected goals and home/away strength, a Poisson goals model and a Dixon-Coles correction for low scores are combined into one probability for every outcome.
2
Next to the market
Every market shows our model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
3
Fixed rules for picks
Picks come from 16 competitions, top leagues first, need enough data from this season, and stay within 10 percentage points of the market at odds up to 4.00. In our own testing, chasing the biggest gap with the market lost money, so we stopped doing that.
4
Every result published
Every pick is published before kick-off and settled on our statistics page, wins and losses.
Our commitment
We show our working, not just a pick: every analysis explains the numbers behind it. Analytical view, not betting advice.

Standings

#ClubPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1Feyenoord Feyenoord8620277+2020
WWWWD
2PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven86112610+1619
WLWWW
3AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar8611188+1019
LWDWW
4Twente Twente8521168+817
DWWWD
5Ajax Ajax84312210+1215
DDWWL
6Groningen Groningen84222014+614
WWDDL
7Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard84221415-114
DWLWW
8Heerenveen Heerenveen93331511+412
WLWDL
9GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles82511917+211
DDDDL
10Excelsior Excelsior93241618-211
LLDLD
11NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen82331314-19
DDLDL
12Cambuur Cambuur82241119-88
WDWDL
13Utrecht Utrecht82241425-118
WLWDL
14Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam81341320-76
DLLDL
15Telstar Telstar8134714-76
DLDLD
16PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle8116621-154
LLLDL
17ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag8035919-103
DDLLD
18Willem II Willem II8026723-162
LLLDL
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

Top scorers

#PlayerGoalsTeamAssists
1
T
S. Tengstedt6
GO Ahead EaglesGO Ahead Eagles
2
2
Z
G. Zechiël5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
4
3
Z
M. Zonneveld5
Sparta RotterdamSparta Rotterdam
1
4
F
Nacho Ferri5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
1
5
H
A. Hadj-Moussa5
FeyenoordFeyenoord
1
6
W
B. Willumsson5
GroningenGroningen
0
7
T
G. Til5
PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
0
8
B
T. van Bergen5
GroningenGroningen
2
9
S
Artem Stepanov5
UtrechtUtrecht
0
10
T
J. Trenskow4
HeerenveenHeerenveen
2

Top assists

#PlayerAssistsTeam
1
Y
I. Yegoian5
ExcelsiorExcelsior
2
Z
G. Zechiël4
FeyenoordFeyenoord
3
G
O. Gloukh4
AjaxAjax
4
R
G. Read4
FeyenoordFeyenoord
5
I
M. Ihattaren3
Fortuna SittardFortuna Sittard
6
R
E. Rottier3
ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
7
W
D. van der Werff3
GroningenGroningen
8
D
K. Dolberg3
AjaxAjax
9
C
M. Chávez3
AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar
10
J
S. Janssen3
ExcelsiorExcelsior

Frequently asked questions

How many goals are scored in the Eredivisie?

In our database the Eredivisie averages 3.19 goals per match over 1,020 matches since August 2023. 61.3% of matches had over 2.5 goals and in 59.3% both teams scored.

How often does the home team win in the Eredivisie?

Home sides won 43.3% of 1,020 matches in our database, draws were 25.7% and away wins 31.0%.

How accurate are your predictions in the Eredivisie?

Our model picked the right result in 53.8% of 130 live matches since March 2026, against 33% for a blind guess. Our published tips here since 11 May 2026: 18 settled, with a return of +17.9%.

Are your tips in the Eredivisie free?

Yes. Every analysis and every pick is free, without registration, and every result stays public in our archive.

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